KSR Staff Predictions: No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Texas A&M

Kentucky has more wins over Top 15 opponents than any other team in college basketball. The Cats will get another opportunity tonight at Rupp Arena against a Texas A&M team that hasn’t won in Lexington since 2013. The KSR crew predicts how the matchup will unfold.

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Adam Luckett

Wade Taylor IV scored a combined 63 points in Texas A&M’s two victories over Kentucky last season. Not having him in the lineup should play a big factor on Tuesday night. Kentucky’s defensive rebounding will be tested in a big way by A&M, but Kentucky’s strong three-point defense (No. 12 nationally) should help slow down a bad shooting team as long as UK guards without fouling.

A&M’s defense is designed to eliminate paint points and will give up a lot of three-point attempts. This one could get sideways if the home team is shooting a good percentage from deep. Kentucky will generate a high volume of open looks from three-point range.

The Aggies will give Kentucky some fits in the paint, but this figures to be a tough matchup for the road team without their best player. The Wildcats keep A&M at arm’s length for most of the game. Buzz Williams remains winless at Rupp Arena.

Score: Kentucky 80, Texas A&M 71

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Tyler Thompson

I feel better about this game knowing Wade Taylor IV is out. Taylor has torched the Cats in the past, most recently putting up 32 points to help knock Kentucky out of the SEC Tournament. Zhuric Phelps has performed admirably in Taylor’s absence (scoring 58 points over the last two games), but without their star guard, the Aggies may not be able to keep up if the Cats continue to shoot like they did at Mississippi State.

On Monday, Buzz Williams said he’s enjoyed studying Kentucky’s “pretty” offense and isn’t sure how to slow it down. The Aggies will start by trying to shut Kentucky down in the paint. The nation’s best offensive-rebounding team may punish the Cats on the other end of the floor for some easy buckets, but it won’t matter if Kentucky makes its shots.

Back in the comfy confines of Rupp Arena, I believe they will, with Jaxson Robinson following up the best performance of his career with a strong showing against his former school and Koby Brea coming alive after two quiet games. Kentucky notches its fifth win against a top-15 team with another opportunity coming up on Saturday vs. No. 4 Alabama.

Score: Kentucky 86, Texas A&M 78

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Nick Roush

“When you’re hot, you squat.” What exactly does that mean? You’d have to ask the crazy guy I heard say it in the paddock, but for whatever reason, that phrase has stuck with me. Tonight, the Cats are squatting.

I say that knowing full well that Kentucky has been going back and forth, trading a hot shooting night for a cold shooting night. But being in the friendly confines of Rupp Arena will help, especially Koby Brea. He’s shooting 24.1% and averaging 1.4 threes on the road, while making 3.7 per game and shooting 57.1% from three at Rupp.

Phelps is going to put up a ton of shots tonight. Henry Coleman and Pharrel Payne will be cleaning the glass. It’s another good opportunity for Amari Williams to show poise and growth after an exceptional outing in Starkville. It will be enough for Kentucky to come away with another Top 15 win.

Score: Kentucky 85, Texas A&M 79

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky should easily eclipse 30 three-point shot attempts tonight. Texas A&M will trot out some light backcourt pressure and float into a weird matchup zone that ultimately gives up a ton of outside shots. SEC teams are taking 29 attempts from long range per game against Buzz Williams’ squad. Anything over the 33 percent mark from deep for UK should result in a win. Kentucky’s guards will have a field day passing around the Aggie defense.

Phelps is going to take at least 25 shots. He loves to shoot. He’s tossed up 54 attempts over the last two games to reach his 58 points. A lot of those looks will be very tough. He doesn’t make it easy on himself. Hayden Heffner is the one guy to watch as a three-point threat (34.8%), but Texas A&M could struggle to scrounge up points that don’t come from the free-throw line.

Coleman, Payne, and Solomon Washington will go to work on the offensive glass. That’s Texas A&M’s best offense at this point — and those three will feast against UK. The key for the ‘Cats is to keep the foul total down. There were 88 total free throws in Alabama’s 94-88 win over the Aggies on Saturday. Texas A&M struggles to score (43.2 FG% and 25 3PT% through three SEC games) and will rely on getting to stripe. Without Taylor in the lineup for A&M and the home crowd cheering on the ‘Cats, I sense a feel-good win on the way for Kentucky.

Score: Kentucky 91, Texas A&M 78

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Jack Pilgrim

What exactly does Texas A&M do well if you take away offensive rebounding and the second-chance opportunities that come with being the No. 1 team in the country in that category? The Aggies are No. 269 in FG%, No. 308 in 3PT%, No. 294 in EFG% and No. 259 in FT% while scoring just 77.4 points per contest. Oh, and they’re missing their best player in Wade Taylor IV — the ultimate thorn in Kentucky’s side as of late, who infamously waved goodbye to Big Blue Nation after dropping 32 points in the opening-round upset in Nashville.

Thing is, they are the No. 1 offensive rebounding team in the country and you can’t take that away from them. No matter their terrible shooting splits, Buzz Williams always has his group fighting and playing hard, as physical as any team we’ll see this season. They’ve established a culture and an identity in College Station and deserve a ton of credit for that. That, unfortunately, has been the biggest knock on Kentucky as of late, leading to the Wildcats looking to prove they’re not ‘soft’ in Starkville this past weekend.

To their credit, they answered the bell at Mississippi State, winning that rebounding battle for the first time since the Louisville win on Dec. 14. That went hand-in-hand with Jaxson Robinson’s long-awaited emergence, sparking very real confidence in two key areas of concern for this group. That starts tonight in yet another top-15 matchup.

If the Wildcats can play with the same toughness and physicality they showed in Starkville, the talent and shooting gap is more than enough to come away with a statement victory back home inside Rupp Arena.

Score: Kentucky 93, Texas A&M 81

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Drew Franklin

Did you hear? Jaxson Robinson is back. He erased any memory of last Tuesday night in Athens by scoring 27 points in Starkville in his breakout SEC game. Koby Brea is also expected back in Rupp Arena, where he’s hit 58 percent of his 3s this season as opposed to 24 percent on the road. If those two play well, and I expect they will, Texas A&M doesn’t have the horses to keep up with a high-scoring night from the good guys.

I predict Kentucky will flirt with 90 points against the wounded Aggies, winning 88-82 to remain unbeaten in Lexington. Offensive boards and Zhuric Phelps will keep A&M in it for most of the game but the Rupp atmosphere will be too much to overcome for the visitors.

Kentucky 88, Texas A&M 82

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Kentucky vs. Texas A&M: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 7 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN2 (Karl Ravech Jimmy Dykes)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 160 or 192
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.