KSR Staff Predictions: No. 6 Kentucky at No. 14 Mississippi State

Mark Pope is still looking for his first true road win at Kentucky. The Wildcats fell at Clemson and Georgia. This trip to Mississippi State will be an even more challenging task.

Chris Jans‘ Bulldogs have won eight straight games and have one of the most prolific scorers in the Southeastern Conference. Can Kentucky go into The Hump and extend its lengthy regular season win streak over Mississippi State? The KSR crew weighs in ahead of the 8:30 pm EST tip-off in Starkville.

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Nick Roush

This smells like a Josh Hubbard revenge game, right? He went absolutely nuclear the last time Kentucky came to town, knocking down seven threes to score 34 points, but had nothing to show for it. Reed Sheppard was the Lucy to his Charlie Brown and pulled out the ball from him. Lamont Butler could do the same.

Few players in college basketball are more well-equipped to slow down Hubbard than the Kentucky point guard. That’s why it’s imperative that he stays out of foul trouble, and receives some help.

Butler is the Cats’ best player but he cannot put the team on his back and do it alone. Amari Williams and Andrew Carr cannot get frustrated by physicality. As for the latter, I think the third time will be the charm for Mr. Carr, who was a combined 3-14 for 11 points in his first two true road games. He’ll bounce back and Kentucky will have a bounce-back shooting performance to weather the storm in Starkville.

Score: Kentucky 88, Mississippi State 86

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Tyler Thompson

Tuesday night’s loss has me worried these Cats may not be able to handle the physicality of SEC play. Mississippi State is a bigger, better version of Georgia. After getting smacked in Athens, Kentucky needs to show a mean streak to avoid picking up a second straight loss.

The Bulldogs are an incredibly aggressive team on both ends of the floor, forcing 10.1 steals per game, which ranks No. 12 in the country. Kentucky turned the ball over 14 times vs. Georgia, which we hope was an anomaly. Mississippi State is also good on the glass, pulling down an average of 13.3 offensive rebounds per game, an average of 35.9% of their misses. Outside of Lamont Butler, Kentucky does not have a reliable bucket-getter. It’s starting to feel like, if the shots aren’t falling, the Cats are doomed, which could make for a long night at Humphrey Coliseum if Chris Jans’ defense lives up to its reputation and Josh Hubbard goes off.

Kentucky responded the last time they got embarrassed on the road with a comeback win vs. a top-ten Gonzaga team. I’m not giving up on the Cats in games like this just yet, but I have a hard time envisioning them fixing all of their issues in just a few days. I hope I’m wrong.

Score: Mississippi State 82, Kentucky 78

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky is undefeated off a loss and has won outright both times as a dog this season. Mississippi State has not faced a top-25 team in KenPom yet this year. The Bulldogs are looking for their first win at Humphrey Coliseum over Kentucky since the 2008-09 season.

This feels like the good time to back the Cats.

Mark Pope’s team has shown resolve when adversity has hit this season and I suspect that we will see them play well in Starkville on Saturday night. The Bulldogs foul a lot on defense and have had some issues guarding the three-point line. As long as star guard Josh Hubbard does not go nuclear, the road team has a great chance at pulling off the outright upset in this top 25 matchup.

Kentucky gets a good three-point shooting performance, hangs in there on the glass, and forces Hubbard to become a volume shooter to get his points. Cats win a tight one to close out Bulldog Week with a 1-1 record.

Score: Kentucky 77, Mississippi State 75

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Drew Franklin

This is a tough spot here, folks. I want to side with some of my colleagues in picking a bounce-back game from the Wildcats because Kentucky responded well to past losses. However, I think the SEC road gauntlet wins out again in this one, as it will for the next several weeks for most SEC teams.

Admittedly, part of this prediction is an underlying hope that I am wrong once again, but I am going to stick with it and log an official prediction for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. I just haven’t seen enough from Kentucky in the two true road environments to think it gets fixed on short notice. Physicality, a road whistle, and a road crowd will be much too much to overcome. I’m sorry. Please mock me when Kentucky wins by five.

Mississippi State 82, Kentucky 76

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Jack Pilgrim

Kentucky hasn’t lost a game coming off a loss this season, nor have the Cats fallen against top-15 competition. Say what you want about the mediocre defeats, but they’ve showed up against the best of the best. Mississippi State qualifies, without a doubt, ranked No. 12 in the NET and 4-0 against Quad 1 competition with top-30 offenses and defenses. Josh Hubbard is a star and Mark Pope has singled out Cameron Matthews as a top scouting priority, comparing his versatility and playmaking to Draymond Green. Those are the two names to watch.

Until UK let’s one turn to two this season, though, I’m not gonna bet against these guys. That 18-point comeback against Gonzaga in Seattle after losing at Clemson was an all-timer, and there was a lot to like about the back-to-back performances after Ohio State, specifically that Florida win to open SEC play.

Oh, and it’s a top-50 rebounding team in the country — specifically No. 41 on the offensive glass — making up for size and length with physicality and athleticism. If the Cats aren’t prepared for this one after getting manhandled in Athens and against the Buckeyes, then I’m not sure they ever will. And we don’t have time for that kind of pessimism on this snowy Friday, do we?

It’s a tight and tough one, Hubbard having yet another big day and The Hump crowd pushing for its first home win over Kentucky since the Billy G days, but their hearts are once again ripped out and the Cats come up big down the stretch. Game MVP? Welcome to the show, Jaxson Robinson. We’ve missed you. Time to shine in Starkville.

Score: Kentucky 80, Mississippi State 79

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Zack Geoghegan

Jack stole my reasoning for picking Kentucky to win this one: the ‘Cats have not lost back-to-back games yet. A road loss to Clemson was followed by an impressive win in what was basically a road game against Gonzaga. The neutral site loss to Ohio State was followed up by a 26-point win over Brown. But back-to-back SEC games away from Rupp Arena, especially when the second leg is a Top 15 opponent, is never going to be easy. Kentucky failed the first test in Athens.

On the surface, Mississippi State is basically a better version of Georgia. Chris Jans’ squad is physical and attacks the glass, but they also rarely turn the ball over and play a relatively fast brand of basketball. A notable difference is MSU doesn’t get to the free-throw line nearly as often as Georgia does. UGA hit 14 more freebies than the ‘Cats in a game that was won by 13 points. I expect that differential to be much closer against Mississippi State. Jans helps make up for those scoring opportunities by having his team squeeze off over 26 three-pointers per game on average. This matchup could be played more on the perimeter compared to the Georgia game.

This isn’t “must-win” territory by any means, but Kentucky could really use this one. Picking up a true road win has eluded the ‘Cats so far this season. Winning this one against a Top 15 team would be a major statement. It’ll be a close one though.

Score: Kentucky 79, Mississippi State 76

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How to Watch No. 6 Kentucky at No. 14 Mississippi State

• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Television: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Jon Sundvold)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.