Kentucky's 3-point shooting has abandoned the 'Cats on biggest stages

On the surface, Kentucky men’s basketball is a borderline elite outside shooting team. The Wildcats rank 14th in the entire country, according to KenPom, in terms of three-point shooting percentage at 39.5. Kentucky has made more than 40 percent of its attempts from long-range on five separate occasions this season, including four games with double-digit makes.

Four different Wildcats are nationally ranked three-point shooters when it comes to percentages. If freshman Chris Livingston had enough shots from deep to qualify (he’s at 7-16, or 43.8 percent, on the year), he’d make it a list of five. Fellow freshman guard Cason Wallace is one of the top snipers in all of Divison I hoops with his 27-57 (47.4 percent) mark this season.

But are these impressive numbers fool’s gold more than anything? When we dive into the statistics a bit closer, we learn that Kentucky isn’t producing at the same rate from distance against the country’s top programs.

Against Power 5 (plus Gonzaga) opponents this season, Kentucky is shooting just 33.0 percent (36-109) across those five outings, which would rank in the 180s by KenPom’s metric. Below is how UK performed from deep in those games.

86-77 (2OT) L vs. Michigan State: 7-25 | 28%
88-72 L @ Gonzaga: 6-25 | 24%
73-69 W vs. Michigan: 9-15 | 60%
63-53 L vs. UCLA: 6-21 | 28.6%
89-75 L @ Missouri: 8-23 | 34.8%

The four-point win over Michigan saves Kentucky’s outside shooting stats from dipping even lower. If we take that one out, UK’s three-point shooting clip falls to 28.7 percent in the other four, which all ended up in losses. All of those contests either came on the road in a rowdy environment or in a neutral setting on a national stage. Against seven non-Power 5 opponents this season (excluding Gonzaga) — all at Rupp Arena — Kentucky is shooting an elite mark of 46.0 percent from distance.

So what’s the deal? Why does a team with so many efficient shooters tend to lock up against the biggest challenges? Is it as simple as being mentally overcome by the moment, or is there a deeper issue at hand?

Coming into the season, Antonio Reeves and CJ Fredrick were anointed as the Wildcats’ top outside shooting threats. Reeves shot 39 percent from deep on 5.9 attempts as a junior at Illinois State in 2021-22. Fredrick was a career 46.6 percent shooter from distance during his two seasons at Iowa. So far, their status as highly-capable shooters still remains.

Those two have lived up to the billing against the lesser teams, with both Reeves and Fredrick shooting an even 50 percent from three against non-Power 5 (excluding Gonzaga) opponents. However, they have failed to show up in the games that truly matter. Reeves is 8-25 (32 percent) from deep against Power 5 (including Gonzaga) teams while Fredrick is even worse at 3-16 (19 percent).

But here’s the kicker. Even though Kentucky grades out as a top-tier outside shooting team, they shoot the fourth-fewest amount of triples among the 14 SEC teams. Only 34.1 percent of the Wildcats’ total shot attempts come from behind the arc, which ranks 268th in the nation, per KenPom.

Head coach John Calipari said at the beginning of the season he wanted his team to shoot at least 25 threes per game this year. He said that just shortly after UK fired up 24 looks from deep in the season-opening win over Howard. But that game plan didn’t last long as Calipari’s offense continues to turn back the clock.

Kentucky has hit the 25-mark just twice this season, both of them coming in losses to Michigan State and Gonzaga. Over the last five games, the ‘Cats are down to just 18.6 threes per game, which has resulted in a 3-2 record. Meanwhile, No. 8 Alabama has only gone four games this season with fewer than 25 shots from long range.

The fix to Kentucky’s struggling offense as a whole isn’t going to be a result of more outside shots, although it would certainly be a good start. Reeves, in particular, and Fredrick (who is now dealing with an injured finger) were both gifted wide-open looks in Wednesday’s loss to Missouri on the road. The shots just didn’t fall, but the problem is they haven’t been falling all season against quality opponents.

There are multiple years of evidence that point to this year’s shooting woes for Reeves and Fredrick as outliers, but at what point does it become who they are right now? Kentucky’s season would look vastly different if those two were shooting up to their standards.