Kentucky's Red Zone Touchdown Percentage Went From First in 2021 to Last in SEC in 2022

Kentucky football’s 2021 offense led the SEC by scoring touchdowns on 72% of their trips inside the Red Zone. UK’s 53% in the same 2022 category ranked last in the conference. That’s quite a drastic fall in competence. The 19 percentage point drop also influenced the scoreboard and last season’s W/L column. Let’s get into it. 

First, it must be noted that Kentucky advanced to their opponent’s 20-yard line on 54 occasions in 2021. Of those 54 trips to the Red Zone, the Wildcats scored 39 touchdowns for a 72% TD success rate. That number was good enough to be ranked first in the SEC. The remainder of the conference averaged 61% in RZ touchdown ratio. Thus, UK was 11% better than the league average. A persuasive factor for the Wildcats’ success was play caller Liam Coen. UK was creative when it needed to be and could also bulldoze its way into the end zone behind a powerful offensive line, the SEC’s top RZ rusher, and a physical, running quarterback. 

UK’s 54 RZ trips in 2021 ranked 7^th in the SEC. However, as seen above, the Cats’ 72% TD ratio was tops in the league. Thus, Kentucky made the most of their trips inside the 20-yard line. The result was a fun season that culminated with a 10-3 record and a win over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. Red Zone success also brings on a certain level of fan excitement. There’s nothing quite like experiencing your favorite team imposing their will for a touchdown against a hapless opponent. Minus a few hiccups, that pretty much sums up the 2021 season. 

The 2022 Offense Struggled Inside the 20s 

“Struggle” may be too kind of a word. I can think of others, but this website is a kid-friendly zone. For the purpose of this article, we’ll focus Red Zone TD ratio. Kentucky dropped from scoring touchdowns on 72% of their RZ trips in 2021 to a mere 53% in 2022. 53% was bad enough to be listed dead last in the SEC. Fellow conference offenses averaged scoring touchdowns on 67% of their trips to the RZ a year ago. That’s a 14% deficiency compared to SEC foes and a 19% deficiency from the previous season. 

The total number of trips to the opponent’s money land also dropped from 54 to 47, which ranked 9th in the league. The ‘Cats were flat-out not good inside the 20s. Turnovers also reared their ugly heads in this part of the field on far too many occasions. Overall, watching the Wildcats try to score touchdowns close to the goal line was an excruciating and tiring practice. That experience wore down the Big Blue Nation and deflated fan excitement from inside stadiums at home and on the road.

The result was a disappointing 7-6 record and a 21-0 loss to Iowa (again) in the Music City Bowl. 

Bonus: Scoring Offense, Field Goal Percentage Went from Near the Top to Near the Bottom

There’s more data to add to last season’s aggravation. Red Zone woes aside, last year’s offense didn’t score many points from anywhere on the field. This resulted in a scoring average that dropped from 32.3 points per game in 2021 to just 20.4 in 2022. For more context, the 2021 ‘Cats finished the season ranked 5th in the SEC in scoring offense (32.3) while last year’s offense (20.4) ranked dead last in the SEC. So, another first-to-last scenario. 

UK also battled ineffectiveness from the field goal team in 2022 which added to Red Zone troubles. The Wildcats’ drop in FG percentage cannot be laid at the foot of just one person. Matt Ruffolo was one of the most accurate kickers in the SEC throughout the 2021 season. Kentucky converted 10/13 field goal attempts for an average of 77%. Additionally, the Wildcats barely attempted one FG per game. 

2022 produced lesser results with the same kicker. The FG team’s entirety was to blame. It simply wasn’t consistently competent. That included the snap, hold, and blocking. UK managed 16/24 field goals or 66.7%. The average number of FG’s attempted rose to 1.8 per outing which was a reflection of the porous RZ offense. 

Ruffolo was presented with the Howard Schnellenberger MVP Award for his efforts against Louisville after a perfect game of 2/2 PATs and 4/4 FGs. That award was deserved and fitting in my opinion. I’m glad UK’s kicker went out that way after a tough season. I felt bad for Matt but again, UK’s FG woes were not solely on Ruffolo’s toe. 

What Does All This Mean? 

I wrote about Kentucky’s 3rd down and Red Zone offensive deficiencies back in June. The immediate and imperative need for upgrading that aspect of the offense is so important that I felt that the topic needed to be re-addressed. From first to last in the SEC was an implausible, hasty, and hostile decline. Can it get fixed? My answer is yes. Maybe not to the point of matching 2021’s efforts, but I’d guess that improvements will be perceptible exclusively based on Liam Coen’s return to Lexington. 

Red Zone touchdown percentage is a number that I study closely. We are closing in on SEC Media Days. KSR intern Lizzie constructed snapshots of statistical categories that I deemed crucial for all-conference teams. RZ TD% is one; it’s just that important. 2021 spoiled the Big Blue Nation in this area. It is urgent for Kentucky to show vast growth in this category in 2023.