KSR’s 2024 NCAA Tournament West Region Preview

It’s almost time for the Madness. The 2024 NCAA Tournament officially gets underway Tuesday night with the First Four games. The real fun kicks off on Thursday and doesn’t stop until a champion is crowned in April.

Here at KSR, we’re breaking down all four regions. I’ve been tasked with the West Region, which features plenty of familiar faces for the Big Blue Nation. We have everything you need to know about the West Region below.

• KSR’s 2024 NCAA Tournament East Region Preview

The Bracket

West Region Schedule

Tuesday

• (16) Howard [-3.5] vs. (16) Wagner | 6:40, truTV

Thursday

• (8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State [-1.5] | 12:15, CBS
• (2) Arizona [-20.5] vs. (15) Long Beach State | 2:00, TBS
• (1) North Carolina vs. (16) Howard/Wagner | 2:45, CBS
• (7) Dayton vs. (10) Nevada [-1.5] | 4:30, TBS

Friday

• (3) Baylor [-13.5] vs. (14) Colgate | 12:40, truTV
• (6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico [-2.5] | 3:10, truTV
• (4) Alabama [-9.5] vs. (13) Charleston | 7:35, truTV
• (5) Saint Mary’s [-5.5] vs. (12) Grand Canyon | 10:05, truTV

Sign up for the KSR Newsletter to receive Kentucky Wildcats news in the most ridiculous manner possible.

The Favorite: Arizona

The West Region favorite isn’t the one-seeded North Carolina Tarheels, but the two-seeded Arizona Wildcats. Which might come as a surprise to some considering the Tarheels closed the season stronger than the Wildcats, but Arizona (6) is three spots ahead of North Carolina (9) in KenPom’s pre-NCAA Tournament rankings.

Both teams feature All-American backcourt stars in RJ Davis (UNC) and Caleb Love (Arizona), the latter actually having played for the Tarheels the previous three seasons before transferring out west during this past offseason. They both also trot out traditional big men who average double-doubles on the season in Armando Bacot (UNC) and Oumar Ballo (Arizona).

Neither team ranks outside of the top 25 in KenPom’s offensive or defensive efficiency. An Elite 8 matchup between these two would produce some exciting basketball.

Odds to win the West Region

• Arizona +230
• North Carolina +350
• Baylor +700
• Alabama +700
• Saint Mary’s +1000
• New Mexico +1700
• Michigan State +1700
• Clemson +2000
• Mississippi State +2500
• Nevada +2500
• Dayton +3000
• Grand Canyon +4500
• Charleston +15000
• Howard +25000
• Wagner +25000
• Long Beach State +25000
• Colgate +25000

Can Alabama’s offense make some noise?

Alabama is actually in quite a similar situation to Kentucky, just on the other side of the bracket. The Crimson Tide earned a 4-seed while the Wildcats picked up a 3-seed, which gives Alabama a slightly tougher path to the Final Four. But the main similarities between these two are high-powered offenses and defenses that rank outside of the top 100.

The Miami Hurricanes from last season was an outlier, but for the most part, teams ranked outside of the top 100 in defensive efficiency have a tough time making the Final Four. Alabama has the second-best offense in the country while Kentucky has the fifth-best, per KenPom, but the Tide rank 112th in defense with UK only slightly ahead at 108th.

Matching up against Charleston in the first round should move Alabama to the Round of 32 with ease. But awaiting them will be either 5-seed Saint Mary’s or 12-seed Grand Canyon, the latter being a trendy pick to win that first-round matchup. Alabama then would likely have to go through North Carolina and Arizona (or New Mexico? More on that in a second…) to make the Final Four.

Like Kentucky, Alabama’s offense could easily get them there; it’s the defense that could have the Crimson Tide going home much earlier than expected.

Can Tim Izzo make another March run?

Over the last several seasons, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squads haven’t lived up to the expectations he set over the previous two-plus decades. And yet, the Spartans usually find a way to play its best basketball in March.

Since the 2020-21 season (including 2023-24), Izzo’s teams have lost at least 13 games in all of them but still managed to crack the NCAA Tournament. Michigan State made it to the Round of 32 in 2022 and then the Sweet 16 last season despite finishing fourth or worst in the Big Ten.

This time around, Michigan State is 19-14 (10-10 Big Ten) with a T6th-place finish in league play. The Spartans lost five of its previous seven games going into the Big Dance. Even if Izzo can get them past 9-seed Mississippi State in the opening round (a tough task in itself), a potential Round of 32 showdown with North Carolina wouldn’t favor Michigan State.

West Region Upset Special: New Mexico to the Elite 8

I’ll obviously be following Kentucky the closest during this NCAA Tournament, but a close second is going to be Richard Pitino’s — yes, the son of Rick Pitino — New Mexico Lobos.

New Mexico wouldn’t have even made the field of 68 had they not made a run in the Mountain West Conference championship where they up-ended San Diego State in the finals. But they’re in now and plenty of fans are leaning into a possible deep run for the Lobos.

That’s not why I’m rooting for them though, although it’s part of the reason. There are actually a handful of Kentucky connections to this group that might have you on the bandwagon, too. For starters (and this might actually make you actively root against them), you’ve got Rick Pitino’s son making his first NCAA Tournament since 2019. On top of that, TyTy Washington‘s younger uncle, Tru, is a freshman on New Mexico, while Jamal Mashburn Jr. is the team’s second-leading scorer. And somehow, Jemarl Baker is STILL playing college basketball. He’s officially in year seven now.

Finally, how can you not cheer for Jalen House, the son of 2008 NBA champion Eddie House? Jalen is New Mexico’s best player and dropped 28 points in the MWC championship game over the weekend.

The 11-seeded Lobos will upset 6-seed Clemson in round one, 3-seed Baylor in the Round of 32, and 2-seed Arizona in the Sweet 16 before finally coming up short to North Carolina in the Elite 8. Which is a perfect segue into my final note on this region…

West Region Champion: North Carolina

Ultimately, I’m going with North Carolina in this region, and I’m picking them to beat the Lobos to reach the Final Four. After missing the NCAA Tournament entirely a season ago, Hubert Davis will get another chance to play in the championship game as he did during his first season in 2021-22.

The Tarheels aren’t just RJ Davis and Armando Bacot though — as Kentucky fans might remember from the Wildcats’ 87-83 win all the way back in mid-December. Cormac Ryan lit up Kentucky for 20 points on 4-7 shooting from deep in that one. He’s fourth in scoring at 11.2 points per game while shooting over 34 percent from deep on just under six attempts per outing. Harrison Ingram and his 12.1 points and nine rebounds per game average make for a tough cover on the wing at 6-foot-8. Freshman Elliot Cadeau is a steady backcourt option for Coach Davis.

North Carolina has more than enough talent to reach the Final Four. I believe the Heels make it happen.