KSR's College Basketball Preview

College basketball season is here. Before diving into today’s games you need a quick college basketball preview. We are about to embark on a six-month sprint until crowning a national champion in New Orleans on April 4. Without a doubt, this is the most wonderful time of the year. We sleep in May.

Here at KSR we obviously pay special attention to the Kentucky Wildcats. As always, I’ll be providing scouting reports and film breakdowns of every game this season. However, prior to the 2021-2022 season tipping off at 3:00 p.m. Eastern Time Tuesday afternoon, let us take a look around the broader college basketball horizons.

Instead of just putting out yet another Top 25 and All-American list we will try to spice things up a little bit. Who are the mid-major teams you need to pay attention to this season? Which players’ names will you start hearing during March Madness? What teams are overrated or underrated? How is Will Wade still a college basketball coach? Those are some of the questions we will answer in the KSR College Basketball Preview.

Three Overrated Teams

1. UCLA Bruins
2. Purdue Boilermakers
3. Arkansas Razorbacks

Did that get your attention? Each of these teams are overrated for different reasons and at different scales. However, none of them are as good as the hype they are receiving nationally. For starters, UCLA is not the second-best team in the country. Typically when a team returns as many of their points and minutes as the Bruins do after a trip to the Final Four being ranked second would make sense. This was not your typical Final Four team though.

UCLA barely made the NCAA Tournament and barely won their First Four game against Michigan State. If they got “snubbed” from the tournament or lost to the Spartans they may not even be in the preseason top 25. Now, in fairness, neither of those things happened and they went on an all-time tournament run. A ton of credit goes to Coach Mick Cronin, Johnny Juzang, and company. It is important to remember though that this team went 17-9 prior to the tournament and finished fourth in the Pac 12. That is a much bigger sample size than the NCAA Tournament run.

For somewhat similar reasons, the Purdue Boilermakers are overrated. Coach Matt Painter’s group was 18-10, finished fourth in the Big 10, and got bounced by #13 seed North Texas. The reason for optimism lies in returning all five starters and the addition of a couple of impact freshmen. That is all fair. However, that doesn’t mean you are all of a sudden a top 10 team. Getting older doesn’t automatically equate to getting better. Therefore, taking a wait-and-see approach to the Bruins and Boilermakers seems like the smarter move. Both are legitimate top 20 teams, but rankings of #2 and #7 respectively are aggressive and unfounded.

Lastly, we have the Arkansas Razorbacks. Fresh off of a trip to the Elite 8, Coach Eric Musselman has the Muss Bus rolling. This is a more specific gripe about them being picked ahead of Tennessee (more on them later) in the SEC Media poll and ranked ahead of the Vols in the national rankings. Again, the Razorbacks are a good team and may finish in the top 25. However, it is hard to see where their roster improved. There still is little to no size. They still won’t shoot the ball very well. Also, there is almost certain regression coming on the defensive end.

Three Underrated Teams

1. Loyola (Chicago) Ramblers
2. Tennessee Volunteers
3. Louisville Cardinals

By all accounts, Loyola was one of the better teams in college basketball last season. The Ramblers lost an incredibly important piece in Cameron Krutwig, but return four other starters and 80% of their minutes overall. After a trip to the Sweet 16 that seems pretty darn good. Despite a much better regular season than UCLA and a much better postseason than Purdue, there is no love being given to Loyola despite a similar makeup. Sometimes the logos can distract the voters.

The Tennessee Volunteers are a team worth sticking your neck out for. Freshman point guard Kennedy Chandler will be a game-changing addition. His playmaking ability will pair quite well with what should be one of the best shooting teams in the SEC. Add that together with an extremely deep rotation and you have the makings of a potential top 10 team. Do not sleep on the Vols this season.

Lastly, and we will keep this quick on a website dedicated to UK, UofL is going to be good. As an unbiased college basketball preview, you have to call it how you see it. Their backcourt has been reloaded with the addition of JUCO point guard El Ellis and Florida transfer sharp-shooter Noah Locke. Both guards should really help improve the Cardinals’ poor shooting performance from last year. Coach Chris Mack needs some positives and he should get them once the season begins in Louisville.

Coaches on the Hot Seat

• Tom Crean, Georgia Bulldogs. 41-49, 14-40 in SEC in three seasons.
• Frank Martin, South Carolina. 155-133, 70-89 in SEC in nine seasons.

Things have not been going well for these two Southeastern Conference coaches. Coach Martin may still have enough goodwill from the shocking 2017 Final Four run, but that is growing thin. Another bad season in Columbia will probably mark his last. As for Coach Crean, despite recruiting at a high level it simply hasn’t equated to wins on the floor. His roster was decimated by the transfer portal this past offseason and will likely be his last in Athens.

• Bruce Weber, Kansas State. 170-130, 76-86 in Big 12 in nine seasons.

Kansas State was one of the worst teams at the high-major level last season. After a 9-20 record, Bruce Weber finds himself in need of a .500 season or better to save his job. There is actually even a little bit of optimism coming out of preseason reports which puts more pressure on Weber. This one probably won’t end well.

• Chris Collins, Northwestern. 118-134, 49-100 in Big 10 in eight seasons.

It remains to be seen how much Northwestern truly cares about being good. However, if they want to compete in the Big 10 they may need to make a change. Everyone likes Chris Collins, but the 2017 NCAA Tournament berth keeps getting further in the rearview mirror. Back-to-back single-digit win seasons have the seat getting hot Evanston.

• Joe Dooley, East Carolina. 29-52, 10-36 in AAC in three seasons.

The Joe Dooley experience hasn’t been very good in his second stint as the Pirates’ head coach. Year four may be a bit quick on the trigger, but 10 American Athletic Conference wins in three seasons makes for a hard sell when trying to save your job.

• Will Wade, LSU Tigers. 82-39, 48-24 in SEC in four seasons.

This is simply here because no college basketball preview is complete without asking the question HOW DOES WILL WADE STILL COACH COLLEGE BASKETBALL? However, his performance certainly isn’t what gets him on the “hot seat.” It is just a question of if or when the NCAA cracks down on his off-the-court transgressions.

Three Hot Takes

• The Memphis Tigers experience blows up at some point this season. All college basketball previews have a Memphis take, and that is ours. Penny Hardaway’s team will be good defensively and will have the most talent on the floor in most games they play. However, it is yet to be seen how Emoni Bates transitions to the college game. Jalen Duren is physically ready, but it isn’t as clear that Bates is. Time will tell, but if things go downhill early on this could be a long season for Coach Hardaway and company at Memphis. There are just a lot of cooks in that kitchen.
• Illinois will win the Big 10. Michigan and Purdue are dominating the preseason storylines, but the Illini have one of the best rosters in all of America. Yes, they lost a dynamic All-American in Ayo Dosunmu. However, Andre Curbelo, Trent Frazier, and Kofi Cockburn represent one of the best returning “Big 3s” in all of college basketball. With the addition of some great shooters this team will be even more dangerous offensively.
• Kansas will be the number one team in the country after the first week. To double-down on that hot take, the Jayhawks will also spend more time at the top of the college basketball rankings than any other team this season.

Mid-Majors to Watch

1. St. Bonaventure Bonnies

We’ve already talked about Loyola and why we are excited to watch them this season. However, the Bonnies are probably the best mid-major team in the country. They return their entire starting five from an NCAA Tournament team while also adding an impact 6’8″ forward from Pittsburgh to backup Osun Osunniyi and JUCO sharp-shooter Linton Brown. Coach Mark Schmidt’s group isn’t just the best mid-major, they are a legitimate top 20 team in the country.

2. Belmont Bruins

The Bruins return a pair of First Team All-OVC performers from a 26-4 team that was just on the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. Grayson Murphy and Nick Muszynski will be a deadly inside-outside duo. As usual, this will be one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

3. Colorado State Rams

Like St. Bonaventure, Colorado State also returns all five of their starters from a year ago. They also added a Division II All-American in Chandler Jacobs who will help make the Rams even better from beyond the arc. San Diego State is probably still the favorite in the Mountain West, however, the return of All-Conference performers David Roddy and Isaiah Stevens gives the Rams a legitimate shot at an at-large bid.

Players Names You Need to Know

• Caleb Love (North Carolina Tar Heels)

A lot of the attention nationally is on the return of center Armando Bacot, but Love will be the straw that stirs the drink for first-year head coach Hubert Davis. Love was inefficient and turnover-prone last season, however, the talent was certainly there. Look for the sophomore point guard to have a breakout season and lead the Tar Heels to a top 10-15 finish in the polls.

• Keve Aluma (Virginia Tech Hokies)

Staying in the ACC, the Hokies are among the nation’s most underrated teams heading into the season. 6’9″ forward Keve Aluma has a lot to do with the high expectations in Blacksburg. His addition of a three-point shot has made him one of the more talented offensive players in the conference. Virginia Tech will be one of the better teams in the ACC, Mike Young will compete for coach of the year honors, and in March fans will need to know the name Keve Aluma.

• Posh Alexander (St. John’s Red Storm)

The Red Storm should make it back to The Big Dance for the first time since 2019 this season. Julian Champagnie is more of a household name, but Posh Alexander is the guy fans need to familiarize themselves with. He will be one of the best two-way guards in the Big East. If St. John’s is as good as they want to be it’ll be because he made a sophomore leap.

• Trent Frazier (Illinois Fighting Illini)

Sticking with this college basketball preview’s theme of being high on Illinois, Trent Frazier is a name that will earn more buzz on the national stage. Andre Curbelo has gotten the preseason headlines and everyone already knows Kofi Cockburn. However, Frazier is the third part of the “big three” that makes the Illini so dangerous. He is one of the Big 10’s best defenders and will be the beneficiary of a lot of open shots from Curbelo-Cockburn pick-and-rolls.

• Alex Barcello (BYU Cougars)

If there is a foil to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, which is unlikely, it will be the Cougars. Always one of the more potent offenses in the country, BYU returns senior guard Alex Barcello after a spectacular season. After averaging 16.1 points per game on 47.7% three-point shooting, he will be one of the few players out west with the chops to keep up with the ‘Zags. Assuming the Cougars have what it takes to return to the NCAA Tournament, Barcello is a guy who could become a household name in March.