KSR Gameday: Kentucky hosts Arkansas in battle of bubble teams

With less than a month left in the regular season, Kentucky needs to start winning some big games to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble. Tonight is the first of six Quad 1 games left on the schedule. At 9 p.m., Kentucky hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks (16-7, 5-5 SEC), another preseason top-ten team now simply striving to make the Big Dance.

Eric Musselman’s team started the season strong but hit a skid when SEC play began, losing five of their first six conference games. Since then, the Razorbacks have slowly regained their footing, winning four of the last five, the lone loss coming at No. 17 Baylor. That said, they’re still a far cry from the team that many believed could win the SEC. On Saturday, Arkansas almost lost to South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC. I’d make a joke about that but I can’t since Kentucky lost to the Gamecocks.

The Razorbacks are without standout sophomore forward Trevon Brazile, who tore his ACL in December, and freshman phenom Nick Smith Jr., who is out indefinitely with a right knee issue. A trio of guards leads the Razorbacks in their absence. Junior Ricky Council IV is first on the team in scoring and second in the SEC with 17.0 points per game. Freshman point guard Anthony Black, a projected top-ten draft pick, averages 12.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. Davonte Davis, who stole the inbounds pass to seal Arkansas’ win over Kentucky in Rupp in 2021, is on fire as of late, averaging 16.6 points over the last eight games, including 44.4% (20-45) from three-point range.

Like Kentucky, Arkansas is on the bubble with only one Quad 1 win (San Diego State); however, unlike the Cats, the Razorbacks don’t have a Quad 4 loss. Tonight is a Quad 1 opportunity for both squads, which are both among Joe Lunardi’s “last four byes” of the NCAA Tournament. So, think of tonight as a play-in game. No pressure!

Calipari: “This will be a really hard game for us”

Last night on his radio show, John Calipari praised the job Eric Musselman has done leading his team back from a rough start to conference play and looked ahead to another late, physical game in Rupp.

“They are an unbelievable driving team,” Calipari said of the Razorbacks. “They’re an unbelievable offensive rebounding team. Their guards can break you down one-on-one as good as anybody this year. Their bigs are physical and long, they defend. They’re good. They’re well-coached. It’ll be a hard game for us, going to be a really hard game.”

A win tonight would be Kentucky’s seventh straight in SEC play and snap a two-game losing streak to Arkansas. The Razorbacks won last year’s game in Fayetteville and the 2020-21 meeting in Lexington.

Musselman on slowing down Oscar, Kentucky’s guards

Kentucky has proved it’s more than just Oscar Tshiebwe, but limiting the big man is still one of Arkansas’ top priorities tonight. Oscar had 30 points and 18 rebounds in the 75-73 loss in Fayetteville last season.

“Obviously, we’ve got to box out Tshiebwe,” Musselman said following his team’s win at South Carolina on Saturday. “… The biggest thing is he plays volleyball with offensive rebounds. He’s so quick off his feet. And he draws fouls around the rim, all those things. Defensively, he’s got good anticipation. He’s a high-steal player for his position, he blocks shots on the defensive end. He’s just tenacious, relentless on the glass, so you’ve got to match that energy.”

Musselman also talked about Kentucky’s guards and the challenge they present, specifically Antonio Reeves.

“Reeves is a great scorer,” Musselman said. “You’ve got to ID him as soon as he crosses halfcourt, he’s a really good transition three-ball shooter…he’s kind of evolved into a guy that they need points from.”

Oscar and Reeves, Kentucky’s leading scorers, combined for only eight points in the win over Florida on Saturday. How will they bounce back vs. the Razorbacks?

How to Watch, Listen

Tonight’s game gets ESPN’s Super Tuesday treatment. Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes, and Marty Smith will be on the call for our last 9 p.m. tip of the regular season (rejoice!).

• TV: ESPN
• Stream: WatchESPN, ESPN+
• Local Radio: 630 WLAP, 840 WHAS, UK Sports Network
• Online: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 85 or 190, SXM app 961

The KSR Pregame Show will begin at 6:30 p.m. live at KSBar and Grille, so come on by before you head to Rupp or simply tune in from home on 630 WLAP, 840 WHAS, or iHeart Radio.

Vegas, Computers

Kentucky opened as a 3.5-point favorite. That has since moved to Kentucky -5.5 at most sportsbooks. The total is 139.5 points. The Cats are 6-0 against the spread in SEC games since the loss to South Carolina.

KenPom predicts a close one, with Kentucky getting the win 72-69 with a 58% chance of winning. Bart Torvik favors the Cats by one, 71-70, 54% chance of victory. ESPN’s Matchup Predictor goes higher, at 64.9%.

Statistical Comparison

Arkansas’ defense ranks 13th in adjusted efficiency on KenPom. In the last five games (Ole Miss, LSU, Baylor, Texas A&M, South Carolina), the Razorbacks have held their opponents to an average of 59.4 points on 35% from the floor, 32% from three-point range.

Arkansas wearing new uniforms tonight

The Razorbacks will be sporting some new threads tonight at Rupp. Yesterday, Musselman shared a picture of Arkansas’ new road unis, which feature the classic “Slobbering Hog” logo across the chest in honor of the program’s 100th season. They are the 12th new uniform the team has worn this season.

New road reds with a classic logo for tomorrow night 👀 #WPS pic.twitter.com/CviOlJaDSK

— Eric Musselman (@EricPMusselman) February 6, 2023

Orlando Antigua previews Arkansas

Coach O stepped to the podium for pregame interviews yesterday, breaking down Arkansas’ excellent backcourt and sharing his thoughts on Kentucky’s progress in recent weeks. He even got asked about his “Monday” UK sweatshirt.

Subscribe to the KSR YouTube Channel for press conferences, interviews, original shows, fan features, and exclusive content.

SEC Standings

With eight games remaining, Kentucky is tied with Auburn for fourth in the SEC Standings at 7-3. The two teams play each other on Feb. 25 at Rupp. Currently, the Cats hold the tiebreaker thanks to the win over Tennesee.

TEAM	CONFERENCE	GAMES BACK	OVERALL
Alabama	10-0	–	20-3
Tennessee	8-2	2	19-4
Texas A&M	8-2	2	16-7
Auburn	7-3	3	17-6
Kentucky	7-3	3	16-7
Florida	6-4	4	13-10
Missouri	5-5	5	17-6
Arkansas	5-5	5	16-7
Georgia	4-6	6	14-9
Vanderbilt	4-6	6	11-12
Mississippi State	3-7	7	15-8
LSU	1-9	9	12-11
Ole Miss	1-9	9	9-14
South Carolina	1-9	9	8-15

College Basketball on TV today

There are four games featuring eight ranked opponents tonight, none of them from the SEC. North Carolina at Wake Forest precedes Kentucky vs. Arkansas on ESPN, so cheer for a clean game in Winston-Salem so a late game doesn’t start any later. Regardless, we will be on #YellowBoxWatch tonight.

TIME	AWAY	HOME	TV
6:30 PM	10 Marquette	21 UConn	FS1
6:30 PM	24 Rutgers	18 Indiana	BTN
7:00 PM	Ole Miss	Georgia	SECN
7:00 PM	Auburn	Texas A&M	ESPN2
9:00 PM	Arkansas	Kentucky	ESPN
9:00 PM	South Carolina	Missouri	SECN
9:00 PM	17 TCU	12 Kansas State	ESPNU
9:00 PM	22 NC State	8 Virginia	ACCN

Finally, #FreeDoug.