KSR Golf: AT&T Byron Nelson

Max Homa picked up a big win last weekend at TPC Potomac in the Wells Fargo Championship. Here at KSR Golf, we logged a win with Corey Conners in three-ball. Now it’s time to get back to the drawing board.

The tour is making one more stop before the second major championship of the season takes place in Tulsa next weekend with the PGA Championship. In the suburbs of the Metroplex this week, the AT&T Byron Nelson hosts a good field as professional golf makes a stop in the Lonestar State.

Course layout

TPC Craig Ranch is the PGA Tour home this weekend and the Par 72 course stretches 7,468 yards. There will be 156 players participating with the top-65 plus ties making it to the weekend. In the field, 50% of the top-20 players in the World Golf Ranking will be in attendance led by No. 1 player Scottie Scheffler.

The tournament will most likely be a birdie party as the winner could easily approach 20 shots under par. The course is wide, and there is not much rough. Expect many players to go low this weekend. However, avoiding bunkers and a few water hazards is enough reason to play with caution and not go wild off of the tee.

Advanced stat of the week

The course does have some length to it, and hitting the ball with the driver will be important. However, iron play and putting efficiency will be more valuable. KSR Golf is focusing on strokes gained approach as the players that give themselves the easiest putts will have a better shot at contending.

Will Zalatoris currently sits at No. 2 overall in strokes gained approach and that leads the field this weekend. The Wake Forest product is now ranked inside the top-30 of the World Golf Ranking and is also 11th in strokes gained off the tee as he has big-hitting power on a 6-foot-2, 175-pound frame. With five top-10 finishes in 13 starts this season, Zalatoris is due for a win and is currently 14/1 to win this weekend at Draft Kings.

Luckett’s Locks

Justin Thomas does not have a victory this season, but the 29-year-old and top-10 player has six top-10 finishes in 11 starts. Ranking No. 4 overall in strokes gained approach, Thomas checks some clear boxes this week. At 9/1 to win, the Louisville (Ky.) St. Xavier product is our pick to get a victory this weekend.

Adam Hadwin is No. 15 in strokes gained approach to go along with solid but not great putting stats. The Canadian has made 12 cuts in 16 starts with four top-10 finishes. At 5/1 to finish inside the top-10, there is value with the No. 105 ranked player who has three top-10 finishes in his last five starts including one at the Valero Texas Open.

Brooks Koepka has missed six cuts in 13 starts and ranks outside of the top-100 in strokes gained approach. A missed cut play (+150) has value.

We’re doubling down on Justin Thomas and taking underdog odds (+105) in a matchup with Scottie Scheffler. Kurt Kitayama ranks No. 15 in strokes gained approach and has recorded consecutive top-15 finishes. A top-40 play (+170) feels like a safe wager.

Let’s have a weekend.