KSR's Guide to the 2024 MLB Season: American League
While most of the country is still tuned into March Madness, and all of Lexington is on pins and needles, it’s easy to forget that spring is turning into summer. And with that change of season and the weather getting warmer, that can only mean one thing: baseball time.
While I grew up in Cincinnati and have been going to Reds games when I couldn’t even walk, I am now a proud Kentuckian. And while there are plenty of Reds fans in the Bluegrass, the range of MLB fandoms stretches from the American League West to the National League East.
So, this season, instead of throwing up just a Reds preview (Brandon Ramsey has that covered already), here at KSR, we want to give our great readers a guide to the ENTIRE MLB season. This article will include player projections, division previews, award picks, and an early World Series projection. After starting in the National League, we now move onto the American League.
(All win total over/under are provided by FanDuel; those lines do not necessarily organize the division predictions)
(WAR will be referenced a lot, as it is one of the best stats in baseball, it stands for Wins Above Replacement. Baseball-Reference describes the stat as how many more wins a player provides compared to a replacement player, think AAA to AAAA. Negative WAR is very bad, 0-2 WAR is bench level, 5+ WAR is All-Star, with 8+ WAR being MVP. For example, last season, MVP Ronald Acuña Jr posted an 8.2 WAR, while Ian Happ posted a 3.0 WAR. So, mathematically Acuña was 5.2 wins “better” than Happ.)
AL East
1. Baltimore Orioles (O/U 90.5)
Starting with the only division in baseball that can rival the National League West in terms of true competition. The American League East this year is like the NL Central on Barry Bonds steroids, with every team realistically falling anywhere from 1-5. Now, it is great for baseball that the Baltimore Orioles can be put at number one in an American League East preview story and it not be a joke.
After last season’s 101-61 record and American League East pennant victory, the O’s are riding a high the organization hasn’t enjoyed in years. On top of that, their ALDS loss to the eventual champion Texas Rangers should light a fire under the young squad this season.
The faces of Baltimore stay the same, with former number-one prospect C Adley Rutschman starting behind the dish. He is coming off his first All-Star appearance as he was amazing from both sides of the plate. Rutschman hit for 80 RBIs, 20 HRs, and finished with a .809 OPS, which was good for second among all catchers. He also led all active catches in walks earned with his 92 being far and away higher than any other catcher.
Then, last year’s American League Rookie of the Year will man third base in Gunnar Henderson. He earned Silver Slugger honors in his first season in the majors, with his 28 home runs leading all rookies. Henderson is a truly exciting player that shows the young spirit of the game and is shaping up to be the best young third baseman in baseball.
Not only that, the Orioles have baseball’s number-one prospect waiting in the wings. Former MLB star Matt Holiday’s son Jackson is a shortstop set to debut later in 2024.
However, the biggest movie for the O’s this season was the acquisition of certified ace Corbin Burnes. Milwaukee paid Burnes this offseason, then traded him to the O’s for a good haul. Burnes will lead a rotation featuring Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells will hold down the middle of the rotation, as Rodriguez continues to be one of the more exciting young arms in the game.
If the pitching holds up, look for the O’s electric offense to lead them to back-to-back American League East titles.
2. New York Yankees (O/U 91.5)
The biggest team in baseball, the most loved, and easily most hated — the New York Yankees. With the number two payroll in all of baseball, the Yanks should be poised for a big season. Their acquisition of Juan Soto this offseason changed the game of baseball.
According to ESPN, “Before Soto, no player had ever made three All-Star teams and been traded twice before the age of 26.” Soto is one of the most complete hitters in baseball, with a career .284 AVG and a WAR of 6.1 last season. He has incredible pop and is insanely fun to watch at the plate. The “Soto Strut” is surely going to endear Yankees fans to the 25-year-old. He’s already a World Series champion, has a batting title, and is a home run derby champion, all in eight seasons as a pro.
Partnering Soto up with Aaron Judge is laughable, with enough pop in that outfield to make the Bash Brothers look like contact hitters. Judge is coming off back-to-back-to-back All-Star seasons and an MVP in 2022. His 62 home runs in 2022 are first all-time in single-season HRs of people not under investigation for juicing (sorry Sammy Sosa, I don’t believe you). Judge has had over a 1.000 OPS in two straight seasons and is the best power/average guy in baseball.
However, outside of Judge and Soto, the Yankees lineup isn’t easy to count on. Giancarlo Stanton is in a constant state of regression, Anthony Volpe’s bat hasn’t come around, Gleybar Torres can be a different player based on the day, etc.
And with reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerritt Cole out, it’s hard to say the pitching staff is much easier to count on. Nestor Cortes has been great in the pinstripes, and Marcus Stroman was an underrated pickup for the Yankees. However, counting on Carlos Rodón as your number two guy in 2024 is a recipe for disaster. Luis Gil was once the Yankees’ top pitching prospect, but two years out with Tommy John puts immense pressure on the 25-year-old to produce in 2024.
The Yankees should easily make the Wild Card, but their production seems too stagnant to compete with the O’s.
3. Toronto Blue Jays (O/U 87.5)
It has to be the Blue Jays year. With back-to-back losses in the American League Wild Card series, the Blue Jays have been on the cusp of breaking out. Young studs Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are not-so-young anymore, and Bitchette is in his contract year. Blue Jays fans have been through the wringer in the past few seasons. With at least 89 wins in each of the past three years, it has been impossible to fathom that no postseason success has come Toronto’s way.
Now, the Blue Jays are seemingly making one last push for Vlad Jr. and Bo to combine for some success for the franchise. Guerrero is the face of MLB The Show 24, and the hype for the power-hitting first baseman is at an all-time high. His 2.0 WAR last season was a career low with at least 70 games played, yet he still made an All-Star team. He’s poised for a better season, as he is flanked by veteran Justin Turner and George Springer in the offense.
Toronto’s pitching should be solid this season. The staff includes José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman, a lot of veterans who can be trusted to hold down the fort for the offense. Alek Manoa is the X-factor for the Blue Jays’ staff, as he had an abysmal 2023 after a couple of great seasons. If he figures it out, then this Toronto team could be very fun.
4. Tampa Bay Rays (O/U 85.5)
Is the magic gone? That will be the question for all Tampa Bay fans this season. After five straight playoff appearances and even an American League Championship under their belt, the Rays are one of the most solid teams in the majors. This success has even come with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and a stadium that is falling apart every day (and somehow smells like urine?).
But, even with all that the Rays’ success has been a lightning-in-the-bottle situation. The lineup and rotation have been a revolving door of decent pieces overperforming their evaluations. Adding to this the Rays lost their number one player and former top prospect Wander Franco to an alleged sexual exploitation and money-laundering laws being broken.
Now, the Rays still return Yandy Diaz and Randy Arozarena, both proven bats that can hit at the highest level. However, the magic has maybe run out on the rest of the Rays. They will need big seasons from Harold Ramirez, Isaac Parades, Brandon Lowe, and Jose Siri to have a real chance at sustaining the success they have earned.
One thing the Rays do have is pitching. A rotation featuring Shane Baz (IL), Taj Bradley (IL), Zach Effin, and Aaron Civale is enough to carry the Rays through seven innings. And, the Rays bullpen was ranked by MLB.com as the number five bullpen entering this season. So, if the pitching delivers, the Rays could compete. However, the offense doesn’t seem to be at a level of the rest of the East.
5. Boston Red Sox (O/U 77.5)
In the arms race of the American League East, the Boston Red Sox have seemingly fallen behind. Now, that’s not for a lack of trying, with the Red Sox bringing in Trevor Story and Masataka Yoshida to aid the offensive attack in the past few years. Along with that, the Sox have immense young talent, with Triston Casas and Jarren Duran anchoring the young attack. However, when comparing this iteration of the Red Sox with past versions, it seems they may be lacking.
Even with an aging Story and a booming Casas, the Sox just don’t have much star power. Yes, Rafael Devers is one of the best bats in the game, but even he is truly elite in the power aspect of this lineup. The Red Sox’s real problems lie within their pitching staff. Bryan Bello and Nick Pivetta are good arms that can either shove or get shoved around. Garrett Whitlock may end the season as the best arm for the Sox, as the 27-year-old had a great Spring Training.
If this season pans out like last, then the Red Sox could move their abundance of talent and move on. With a plethora of talent waiting in the wings (hello Marcelo Mayer), then they could have a quick rebuild on their hands. However, if they compete it will be really hard for Boston fans to say goodbye to some of their elite talent. So, even in having the Sox at five, I believe they will have a good year and could see them in the 3-4 range.
AL Central
1. Minnesota Twins (O/U 86.5)
Not to be mean, but the American League Central is horrendous. Not very good at all, yet the Twins are a pretty darn good team that could compete in any division in baseball. Minnesota’s Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, and Carlos Correa are a very good 1-2-3. Lewis has broken out as one of the best young bats in baseball. He batted .309 last season with a .900+ OPS, he also had a 2.4 WAR at third base. However, Lewis has never been healthy in the majors, and he seems to be as healthy as ever in 2024.
Byron Buxton is one of the most electric centerfielders in baseball. His 28 home runs in 2022 in 92 games were highly impressive. However, he has never played 100 games in a single season. Buxton seemingly can’t stay off the IL, and his .207 BA last season was well below his usual average. Correa is seen as one of the better shortstops in baseball with a career average of .272 and he has even earned a Platinum Glove.
Another big X-factor for the Twins is the arrival of their number two prospect SS/2B Brooks Lee. Lee was drafted in the eighth spot of the 2022 MLB Draft and has impressed ever since. He will start the season in the minors and will look to be promoted later.
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2. Detroit Tigers (80.5 O/U)
Tigers fans need to watch a team compete for a playoff push. And the good news for Detroit fans, they finally have a squad that can. For the past few years, the Detroit organization has featured one of the best young prospects in baseball. Guys like Riley Greene, Casey Mize, Spencer Torkelson, and Tarik Skubal were seen as the future of Tigers baseball. In their couple of years in the big leagues, they’ve made Tigers baseball fun for the first time since the early 2010s.
Riley Greene is only 23 years old and is seen as one of the best young outfielders in the American League. Torkelson is a former number-one pick who is looking to continue his development with a great year in the Central. The Tigers made their move to compete when they signed Javier Baez to a big contract from Chicago, but he has yet to perform well for Detroit. All of the Tigers fans are excited for Colt Keith, a rookie second baseman who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2020 MLB Draft. For pitching, the Tigers have Tarik Skull as a true ace, a guy who can put up a low three ERA in an instant.
Casey Mize, Kenta Maeda, and Jack Flaherty round out the rotation that can truly compete in the central. They should be a trendy pick to win the Central in 2024.
3. Cleveland Guardians (81.5 O/U)
Now for the hardest team in the division to predict, the Cleveland Guardians. The Guards had a rough season last year, finishing 10 games under .500 and third in a pretty bad Central. However, the Guardians went out and got a new manager Stephen Vogt, and are excited about all of their upcoming prospects. In the majors, the Guardians have Steven Kwan, perennial All-Star José Ramírez, and Josh Naylor as the best bats in their lineup.
Outside of that, it’s a whole lot of young studs entering the majors this season. Kyle Manzardo, Brayan Rocchio, and Juan Brito should all debut this season and are top-five players in the Guardians organization. When these guys reach the majors, Cleveland could have a serious lineup in their ranks. However, the best aspect of this team is the pitching staff. Shane Bieber, Tanner Bibee, Tristain McKenzie, and Logan Allen make up one of the best rotations in baseball. In fact, I think this pitching staff can carry the Guardians to 82+ wins.
4. Kansas City Royals (73.5 O/U)
One of the most underrated players in baseball is a Kansas City Royal. If you are a baseball fan but don’t know a lot of players and are looking for a young guy to follow, pull up some Bobby Witt Jr. tape. Witt is one of the most electric players in baseball, and at 23 years old, he is one of the pillars of the MLB moving forward. How fitting that a franchise like Kansas City, a beautiful ballpark with great fans, gets to house one of the best shortstops in the game.
He finished last season with 49 stolen bases along with 30 home runs… does it get any better than that? However, Bobby Witt Jr. is still without an award in his young career, and this is the season that changes. In fact, at +1800 Witt Jr. for ALMVP could be a fun bet, especially if the Royals show promise. With Salvador Perez in his final years in Kansas City, it would be poetic to bring one of this generation’s best catchers to the mountaintop one last time.
Maikel Garcia is another super underrated player for the Royals. At just 24, Garcia is a good young third baseman who is easy to pair alongside Witt Jr. Also, the Royals have a laundry list of prospects ready for their big league call, so look for one of the youngest teams in baseball to make some noise in 2024.
5. Chicago White Sox (61.5 O/U)
With all the promise in this division, one team is alone on the island of “What do we do?”. On one hand, Luis Robert and Andrew Vaughn are two franchise cornerstones that can bring people to the ballpark. On the other hand, the rest of the team just isn’t very good. Now, Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi, Eloy Jiminez, and Nicky Lopez have all been great pros in the majors.
However, this lineup doesn’t move the needle in the slightest. And to be frank, the pitching staff isn’t much better. Garrett Crochet and Mike Soraka are young arms with a lot of promise, but they’re almost alone in that promise. The White Sox are in a state of turmoil, and it may be time to get some prospects for some of their veteran pieces.
Speaking of prospects, Colson Montgomery is a shortstop who is one of the best in all of baseball. He is going to be called up at some point this season, and his presence alone will inject some fun into a ball club that desperately needs it.
I’m pretty confident that the Chi Sox will be heading up the back in the AL Central this season.
AL West
1. Texas Rangers (88.5 O/U)
The reigning champions of Major League Baseball are back with a vengeance — after years of Texas being a stepping stone to the Astros’ regime of championships and deep October runs. But, last season, the Rangers front office committed to winning, and it paid off to the highest degree, a World Series ring. In 2022, the Rangers sat at 15th in the majors in payroll. Then, in last year’s World Series run, the Rangers moved all the way up to the fourth-highest payroll in baseball. So, maybe money does win championships.
The Rangers return one of the most elite lineups in the entire major leagues. With 2B Marcus Semien, SS Corey Seager, 3B Josh Jung, RF Adolis Garcia, and more. Jung was an All-Star as a rookie last season and he is a great third baseman. Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, and Jon Gray lead a pitching rotation that overperformed last season and will need to recreate the same magic to capture back-to-back American League West pennants.
2. Houston Astros (93.5 O/U)
Now, being a baseball fan I really wanted to have a hot-take and move Houston down to the dumps of the American League West. However, even my crazy sports brain can’t justify moving such a good squad out of the playoff picture.
Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman have been the face of the Houston Astros organization throughout their long history of dominance. And with the pitching staff of Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, and Cristian Javier, the new-look Astros have a great pitching staff. They even have some real young talent — Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Hunter Brown have the young guard moving into Space City to compete for more championships.
There is a good chance Kyle Tucker and Jordan Alvarez could combine for 80 home runs, something crazy in today’s game. I believe in the Astros to easily make the Wild Card and compete for an easy American League West championship
3. Seattle Mariners (87.5 O/U)
The Mariners are another really fun team in the American League. In fact, if you need an AL team to cheer for the Mariners are a good fit for people who just enjoy a fun team. Julio Rodriguez is the face of Seattle, and he is blowing up across the league. The former Rookie of the Year, 2x All-Star, and Silver Slugger’s bat was hot last season. Rodriguez’s 32 home runs and 103 RBIs were good for fourth in MVP voting in the American League.
However, outside of Rodriguez, the Mariners have a ton of pieces that are underrated. JP Crawford is a super fun shortstop, and Ty France is one of the most underrated corner infielders in the majors. Look for the Mariners to make a playoff push behind one of the best rotations in baseball. George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller is one of the best 1-4 rotations. Look for Castillo to compete for an American League Cy Young.
4. Los Angeles Angels (71.5 O/U)
The Los Angeles Angels should be fined for wasting the career of Mike Trout. With zero playoff series wins for Trout, it’s a shame that the Angels never seemed to make the push to compete — especially with having the two biggest stars in baseball for the past few years in Shohei Ohtani (now with the Dodgers) and Trout. Still, they never could get it done, and even with Ohtani and Trout, they didn’t have any playoff wins to show for it.
Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, and Logan O’Hoppe could be really good, but Rendon is getting paid a butt load of money. But O’Hoppe and Ward can be good for Trout and provide him with some big RBI chances. Patrick Sandoval is their ace this season, and he could have a big swing toward an All-Star season.
5. Oakland Athletics (58.5 O/U)
Phew, now for the final team, the Oakland Athletics. Or, I guess they will be the Las Vegas Athletics. One of the most historic teams in baseball is horrendously bad, and nobody will go to their games. I could write 1,000+ words on what has gone wrong for the Athletics organization. But, every one of their fans are protesting their games, and they could have a historically bad season. Outside of Shane Langeliers, there is genuinely not much talent to write about on the A’s. I just hope they can figure out the fan situation, and not have every sports team move to Los Vegas.
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