KSR Predictions for Kentucky vs. Mississippi State

It’s almost Football Time in the Bluegrass. After back-to-back losses, Kentucky is looking to right the ship against the Mississippi State Bulldogs who come to Kroger Field off back-to-back wins over backup quarterbacks. The first meeting between the two schools as ranked teams, here is how the KSR staff believes the matchup will play out Saturday night.

Nick Roush

As every head football coach will tell you, lessons learned from previous meetings are irrelevant. It’s a new season with a new team. That benefits Kentucky in this matchup, particularly when the Bulldogs have the ball.

A year ago Mississippi State controlled the clock with an efficient passing game and an aggravating rushing attack in short-yardage situations. The upgrades to the secondary and the edge should tilt the scales back in the Wildcats’ favor. Kentucky missed too many open-field tackles, allowing the MSU running backs to make yards after the catch. That will not come easily tonight at Kroger Field. Kentucky will not be surprised by the Bulldogs’ rushing attack either.

The UK defense should keep the Bulldogs to around 20 points. It’s up to Rich Scangarello’s offense to go win this game. Self-inflicted errors led to the Wildcats’ demise in back-to-back weeks. Water will find its level with Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez accounting for the majority of the Wildcats’ offensive production. C-Rod will rush for 150+ yards and Dane Key will make a big play late to propel Kentucky to a much-needed win.

Prediction: Kentucky 27, Mississippi State 21

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Zack Geoghegan

I was optimistic the last two weeks, but that cheery attitude has quickly gone away after last Saturday’s performance. Will Levis is back, which should alleviate some scoring issues, but there are more problems than just a limping quarterback. Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach has the Bulldogs playing above their preseason weight with a future NFL quarterback in Will Rogers running the show — Rogers leads the SEC in total passing yards (2,110) to go along with 22 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

With the constant special teams mishaps, a struggling Big Blue Wall, and an offense still not sure of itself, I just don’t see the ‘Cats scoring enough to keep up with Rogers and MSU. The Bulldogs dinked-and-dunked Kentucky’s defense to death last year. I’m not sure this time around will be much different.

Prediction: Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 21

Drew Franklin

Football’s a cruel game. Two weeks ago, if Will Levis waited another half-second to snap the ball before he hit Dane Key in the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown that wasn’t, the narrative around Kentucky Football would be completely different right now. At worst, Kentucky is a one-loss team with a bad luck excuse for last week’s loss to South Carolina; or even better, a win in Oxford changes last week’s outcome, and Kentucky is undefeated and still in the top 10 today.

But, life didn’t work out that way and enthusiasm is spiraling in Lexington with back-to-back losses going into today’s game versus Mississippi State. Vibes in Lexington are down all because of a couple of crucial, ill-timed mistakes at Ole Miss, and because football’s a cruel game.

Today, though, Kentucky gets Will Levis back for the first time since his game-ending fumble at Ole Miss and he’s hungry to get things back on track. With him, Chris Rodriguez has a huge opportunity against a defense that allowed 200 rushing yards to both LSU and Arkansas. It’ll be only the second time Kentucky’s had Levis and Rodriguez together this season and they’re too good to leave as many points on the board as they did in Oxford.

The Cats finish drives, finally, and win.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Mississippi State 24

Adam Luckett

Kentucky is backed into a corner this week and knows it. Therefore, I’m fully expecting the Wildcats to come out and play their best game of the season against Mississippi State.

Much like last week’s matchup, Kentucky should be able to find some success on the ground as State’s 3-3-5 defense has been leaky against this run but this time there will be a passing game the defense has to account for. The presence of Will Levis will lead to success and Kentucky will create scoring opportunities throughout the game due to offensive balance. The home team will just need to finish drives.

On the other side, State tallied up a bunch of rushing yards against Arkansas and Texas A&M but both of those fronts have been poor at fitting the run. Kentucky’s front has been somewhat leaky on the ground but this might be the most efficient rush defense we’ve seen under Mark Stoops as the Cats rank No. 12 overall in rush success rate. On the other side, State will move the ball with their pass-heavy approach but the game will be won or lost in the red zone. Kentucky owns a top-25 red zone defense and needs to win some scoring opportunity battles against an elite Mississippi State red zone offense.

The vibes have been weird this week, but recent history tells us this is a spot where Kentucky typically plays its best. The Cats are 10-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last 13 games as a dog dating back to 2019. Kentucky has a good matchup on offense, can challenge Mississippi State in the red zone, and has desperation on its side.

All of that adds up to equal a big home win to get the season back on track. We see Kentucky’s best offensive performance of the year on Saturday and the defense finds a way to get enough key stops.

Prediction: Kentucky 34, Mississippi State 23

Jack Pilgrim

Mississippi State brings a top-30 offense in college football to Lexington, with the Bulldogs averaging an impressive 461.3 yards per game. Quarterback Will Rogers leads the nation with 2,110 total passing yards on an absurd 22-3 TD-INT rate while completing 202 of 282 passes (71.6%). On the ground, Dillon Johnson has rushed for 402 yards and three scores on 67 carries, while Jo’quavious Marks has added 245 yards and five touchdowns.

Kentucky’s offense, however, has sputtered — even with a top draft pick at quarterback, arguably the best running back in the SEC and strong pass-catching weapons. The Wildcats are currently banged up, too, though quarterback Will Levis is expected to make his return after missing last week.

On the surface, it doesn’t feel like a matchup that favors Kentucky, especially after throwing a clunker last week vs. South Carolina. Everyone but Peyton Manning picked the Bulldogs to win this morning on College GameDay.

The chip-on-our-shoulder mindset is slowly creeping back. National doubt is settling back in. This is when Kentucky plays its best football — and why I’m picking a late comeback victory at Kroger Field.

After a slow start knocking the rust off, Will Levis leads the Wildcats to victory to avoid a three-game losing streak.

Prediction: Kentucky 31, Mississippi State 27