KSR Staff Predictions: No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Alabama

No. 8 Kentucky and No. 4 Alabama own identical records: 14-3, 3-1 in the SEC. Both play very fun brands of basketball. On Saturday, the two teams meet at high noon at Rupp Arena, the first of two showdowns this season.

Alabama ranks No. 1 in scoring (89.5 points per game) and No. 7 in offensive efficiency in KenPom; Kentucky is No. 3 (88.7 PPG) and No. 2 in those categories. The Crimson Tide has one of the best players in the league in senior guard Mark Sears, who ranks second in the SEC in scoring at 18.6 points per game. While Nate Oats’ squad is impressive, they are coming off their worst offensive performance of the season, scoring just 64 points in a loss to No. 21 Ole Miss at home.

Will Kentucky improve its record vs. AP Top 15 teams to 6-0 or will the Crimson Tide snap that streak? The KSR crew is ready to weigh in.

Nick Roush

This weekend I will be enjoying a little post-football getaway. What exactly does that mean? It means I’m watching the Kentucky basketball team play Alabama at a bar with zero work duties. The last time I watched the Kentucky basketball team play Alabama at a bar with zero work duties, it was an early Saturday at Rupp. The Cats trailed by a dozen points with 3:30 on the clock before half. Then Kellan Grady got hot and I became the most obnoxious person in America.

Kentucky won that game 90-81 and Grady hit seven threes. History has a knack for repeating itself. This time it’s going to be Koby Brea who gets hot for the Cats. He’s had a couple of cold nights in a row. He’ll snap out of it and we’ll have ourselves one heck of a Saturday.

SCORE: Kentucky 90, Alabama 81

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Tyler Thompson

Saturday is going to be a fun day at Rupp Arena. Kentucky and Alabama rank No. 1 and No. 2 in the SEC in made threes per game (10.1, 10.0) and play fast, meaning threes will be flying and both teams will be looking to punish the other in transition. This could be one of those games where you don’t want to blink in fear of missing some of the action.

Alabama played its worst game of the season vs. Ole Miss, going just 5-20 from beyond the arc and turning the ball over 21 times. I’m sure that means they’ll play one of their best vs. Kentucky. Lamont Butler, who put his body on the line vs. Texas A&M, will more than have his hands full with Preseason SEC Player of the Year Mark Sears, a matchup that could decide the game. The Crimson Tide’s defense is good, especially at limiting threes. On the rare chance that the Cats have an open look, they better take it. As Nick said, it’d be a great day for Koby Brea to snap out of his funk.

When playing their brand of basketball, the Cats have looked great so far this season. With a rowdy Rupp Arena crowd behind them, I expect that to continue vs. the Crimson Tide. Buckle up.

SCORE: Kentucky 92, Alabama 87

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Adam Luckett

Welcome to the pace and space showdown. Alabama and Kentucky each want to play five-out on offense, push the tempo, and shoot a high volume of threes. The better three-point shooting team will likely always have the advantage when this happens.

The ranked vs. ranked clash at Rupp Arena is very much a make or miss matchup. Alabama’s two-point shooting (No. 3 nationally in field goal percentage) and Kentucky’s two-point defense (No. 218 nationally in field goal percentage allowed) is very concerning and could very well cost Kentucky this game. However, threes are greater than twos.

Jaxson Robinson is hot, Koby Brea is due, the Cats are making a concerted effort to get more three-point attempts up in SEC play (43.2% of all field goal attempts), and Alabama ranks No. 252 nationally in three-point field goal percentage (32%). That ultimately makes the difference.

Kentucky’s edge in the three-point column gives the Cats another ranked win.

Score: Kentucky 89, Alabama 82

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Zack Geoghegan

Alabama is going to bounce back. Go ahead and put that in pen. This will be a track meet of a game whereas Ole Miss slowed the pace to a crawl against the Crimson Tide. I’m expecting the winning score to be in the 90s.

Three-point shooting will be massive in this game. Alabama is not the same outside shooting team it was a season ago. They supplement some of that by being effective from two-point range, but this is a group that doesn’t want to shoot inside — they want to get up shots from deep. Alabama takes nearly as many three-point attempts (31.2 per game) as they do two-point attempts (33.1). Most of those scores inside the arc come from the bigs, although Sears is a tough guard from any spot on the floor with the ball in his hands.

But this game could come down to — you guessed it — offensive rebounding. Alabama is a Top 20 offensive rebounding team. Ole Miss held the Tide to just four offensive rebounds earlier this week. Without those second-chance opportunities, their bigs struggled to score. Keeping Alabama off the glass and making bad shooters take shots from deep will be two of the biggest keys in this game. I think Kentucky does both well enough to win.

Score: Kentucky 95, Alabama 89

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Jack Pilgrim

I was desperately rooting for Alabama to get things figured out at home against the Rebels, still within striking distance with midway through the second half before the wheels fell off. Now the Tide will be desperately looking to avoid an 0-2 finish on the week, bringing their best shot to Lexington hungry to take on Kentucky as the underdog. On the flip side, the Wildcats are looking to push their hot streak against ranked competition to six straight wins after a 5-0 start taking on top-15 foes.

Surface-level momentum favors the road team needing this one a little more than the home team. We do not believe in surface-level momentum over here. Instead, we believe in Kentucky’s recent growth on the glass and with physicality, looking to be the hammer instead of the nail, this time against the top-ranked offensive rebounding team in college basketball over the last five games. We also believe in the Wildcats’ balanced shooting attack, particularly with Jaxson Robinson finally finding himself as of late — plus a bounce-back effort coming from Koby Brea at some point. The style of play favors this game as a prime opportunity for No. 4.

This one will be a track meet, as always, and the entertainment value will be high. Alabama will get out of its shooting funk and hit some big ones, but Kentucky will use the Rupp Arena environment to hit some bigger ones. Get your popcorn and watch the Wildcats win a nail-biter that adds yet another statement victory to the tournament resume.

Score: Kentucky 96, Alabama 93

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Drew Franklin

I’ve been looking forward to this one all season, BBN. I think we’re in for a shootout, with both coaches trying to out-fast and out-shoot their opponent. It may look like Kentucky’s SEC opener against Florida, another early Saturday game, when the Cats and Gators combined for 206 points in a Kentucky win. I expect Kentucky and Alabama will also race toward the 100s, with Rupp Arena’s crowd being the deciding factor in the end once again.

Koby Brea finds his shot (he has to), and Jaxson Robinson stays hot in a narrow UK victory.

Kentucky 98, Alabama 94

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Kentucky vs. Alabama: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 106 or 190
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.