KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Auburn

by:KSR•about 10 hours

Kentucky mascot Scratch - Dr. Michael Huang, Kentucky Sports Radio

After a 28-point beatdown at Florida, Kentucky returns to Kroger Field to host Auburn on Saturday (7:45 PM, SEC Network). The Tigers (2-5, 0-4 SEC) are not good, one of two SEC teams with a worse conference record than Kentucky, but the Cats are reeling, making Saturday’s game a must-win if they want a realistic shot at a bowl.

Kentucky is a 2.5-point favorite, even though the Cats will be without several key contributors, most notably Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and Chip Trayanum. Will the Cats rally or will we continue down this depressing path with a third-straight loss? Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in.

Tyler Thompson

I’ve been putting off thinking about this game all week, trying to linger in the basketball afterglow for as long as possible. The loss to Florida was truly defeating, and Mark Stoops’ comments afterward just made me feel worse about the current state of the program. With their backs against a wall, a typical Stoops team would fight back; this group? I just don’t know. With the bowl streak on the line, I really, really hope so.

Auburn is better than their bad record shows. The Tigers led Oklahoma at half and Missouri in the fourth quarter in Columbia. Kentucky’s already struggling offense will be without its workhorse, Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. Add in the fact that the Cats have lost 10 of their last 12 SEC home games and I’m not sure why they’re favored. It is purely with my heart that I’m picking them to win, but that’s simply because I don’t want to think of what it’ll be like if they don’t.

Score: Kentucky 17, Auburn 14

Adam Luckett

The outlook is not pretty for the Kentucky football program right now. If not for some good recent recruiting wins, there would be almost no good news to speak of. I’m afraid some more slippage is on the way in another 50/50 SEC game on Saturday night.

Auburn has some interesting similarities to Florida on both offense and defense. Payton Thorne is not as surgical as DJ Lagway on vertical throws, but Auburn’s receivers are better than Florida’s. Jarquez Hunter might be the best tailback Kentucky will see all season. We all saw the problems Kentucky’s defense had last week and Auburn’s top-15 yards per play offense can do the same thing.

On defense, the structure for Auburn is very similar to Florida but the defensive front is better with great size and some good edge pass rushers. Running in between the tackles could be difficult and this game could come down to Kentucky’s passing game taking advantage of a young Auburn secondary who has had some bad moments this season.

Each team has had a year of self-inflicted mistakes, but I trust Auburn’s playmakers on offense more in this game. The Tigers will win the explosive play battle and finish just enough drives to get their first SEC win this season. The game could flip if Kentucky’s defense could force multiple turnovers, but that is just not something we’ve seen them do much this year. The Kentucky offense will again create multiple scoring opportunities but will struggle to finish drives.

The Cats will enter November just two losses away from seeing their eight-year bowl streak snapped as the program goes winless at home in SEC play for the first time since 2013.

Score: Auburn 27, Kentucky 17

Zack Geoghegan

It’s admittedly hard to find many positives about this Kentucky team going into Saturday. But if there is one area keeping me a believer in the Wildcats this weekend it’s the fact that Auburn loves to turn the ball over. The Tigers average 2.3 giveaways per game, which ranks fourth in all of FBS. Not holding onto the ball has cost Auburn greatly down the stretch in a handful of games already this season.

But will Kentucky take advantage of any miscues from the Auburn offense? The Florida offense torched the Wildcats just a week ago. Kentucky might need a defensive score to keep its offense in the game. Auburn hasn’t proven it can hang 30-plus points on a regular basis (they average just 16.3 points per SEC game), so I’m expecting a low-scoring game that comes down to the last possession. An Alex Raynor field goal right before the clock hits 0:00 wins it for the ‘Cats.

Score: Kentucky 16, Auburn 13

Drew Franklin

I don’t feel great about this one, Big Blue Nation. How could I? The Wildcats are staring down an 0-4 season at home in SEC games. Lose this one, and a 15th or even a 16th-place finish in the conference is possible.

Auburn is also in desperation mode, losing five straight, although three were one-possession losses, and the Tigers blew two fourth-quarter leads in that stretch. Auburn’s back is against the wall, too.

Then there are Kentucky’s running back concerns with two major absences in the backfield, leaving the ground attack to a redshirt freshman, a freshman, and the quarterbacks. Kentucky’s offense already struggles to score points, and two of its most talented players are sidelined for the final home SEC game.

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For those reasons and more, like whatever is holding Kentucky back at Kroger Field this season, I am picking Auburn to win in Lexington in a very low-scoring game. The good news is that I have been wrong all season, so maybe I’ll be wrong again. One might even call it very probable. I’m hoping I am.

Score: Auburn 17, Kentucky 13

Jack Pilgrim

It’s been pointed out throughout the week that Auburn is better than its 2-5 record would suggest, the Tigers remaining competitive in SEC play with an abysmal turnover rate being their downfall. That’s the top priority for Hugh Freeze going into this matchup, acknowledging “You can’t have lapses or bad calls or bad execution at critical moments” in his pregame presser on Monday.

On the flip side, Auburn is one of the most explosive teams in college football with 10 players catching at least one touchdown — tied for best nationally — while leading the country in plays of 40-plus yards with 13, fifth in yards per completion at 15.04. It’s a dynamic offense that shoots itself in the foot too much — and realizes that’s one of their few downfalls.

I want to be optimistic, but just can’t right now. Once again, I need Kentucky football to show me, not tell me. Until then, I expect Auburn to figure itself out and find a way to win its first SEC game of the season as the wheels continue to fall off in Lexington.

Score: Auburn 20, Kentucky 17

Nick Roush

Ahead of the season, I differed from many of my colleagues while picking three games: a win at Ole Miss, a loss at Florida, and a loss at Auburn. I really hate being the “I told you so” guy, but the stars are aligning for me to go 3-for-3.

This Auburn team has not panned out the way I thought they would. Payton Thorne did not take a significant step forward in year two under Hugh Freeze. Even though it’s not been good enough to win an SEC game, it’s probably good enough to beat Kentucky.

Auburn is similar to Florida in so many ways, especially when it comes to explosive plays. The Tigers lead the nation in passes of 40+ yards and Kentucky gave up five of those a week ago. That’s not a recipe for success. Both teams are more talented than their records indicate but neither makes winning plays in the margins.

“Who will mess up the least?” That is basically the name of this game. The way this season has gone, Jamarion Wilcox will go off and Kentucky will have its best offensive performance to date, but the defense drops the ball and lets Auburn get one too many chunk plays in another devastating defeat.

Score: Auburn 31, Kentucky 27

Kentucky vs. Auburn: How To Watch, Listen

Kickoff: 7:45 p.m. ET
TV: SEC Network (Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchcomb, Ashley Stroehlein)
Watch college football games live – try Fubo for free! Click HERE NOW.
Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Jeff Piecoro, Dick Gabriel)
AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
FM: 98.1 WBUL
Online: iHeart Radio
Sirius XM: 119 or 190 (UK); 374 (Auburn)
Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also keep up with the game and chat with other fans on our game thread on KSBoard, with Drew Franklin, Nick Roush, and Adam Luckett providing updates from Kroger Field and the rest of us from home.