KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Florida

Week 8 of the college football season has Kentucky playing in Gainesville, looking for a second straight win over the Gators in the Swamp and three in a row in the rivalry. Both sides of this year’s Kentucky-Florida series are coming off SEC losses and need a win to avoid spiraling during a critical stretch in the season. Florida head coach Billy Napier needs one more. Still, it is a high-stakes matchup each way on SEC Saturday Night, and the KSR crew has predictions for the outcome before it kicks off.

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Drew Franklin

I’m as down as anyone on Kentucky’s football program right now. However, this trip to Gainesville checks three big boxes on the things Mark Stoops’ teams do well: (1) play on the road; (2) respond after letdowns; (3) beat Florida.

Saturday is a Stoops 3-pack for success, so I expect the Wildcats to bounce back from losing to Vanderbilt with a road win over the Gators to move to 2-0 on the road and 1-3 at home in the SEC. It’s the most Kentucky thing that can happen here.

I’ll say the defense scores a touchdown to spice up my prediction for this exercise.

Score: Kentucky 21, Florida 20

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky and Florida both enter the Week 8 matchup with a 3-3 record. A loss for either side could create a spiral in the back half of the schedule. Each side needs a win. This is a situation where Kentucky has usually played well.

The loss of Graham Mertz is significant in this matchup and is ultimately what led to me backing the road team. True freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has been more turnover-prone and that will matter in this game. This contest will come down to which offense makes the biggest mistake. Kentucky’s No. 2 overall havoc rate defense should have a great shot at producing a game-changing turnover.

A conservative game plan on offense gets just enough done to leave The Swamp with a win. The Cats establish the run, play ball control, and find a way. Kentucky continues its winning streak in this series by the slimmest of margins in a 50/50 game.

Score: Kentucky 17, Florida 16

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Tyler Thompson

Which Kentucky will we see this week, the Cats that took No. 1 Georgia to the wire and upset No. 6 Ole Miss or the ones that were a complete mess vs. South Carolina and Vanderbilt? My disappointment from last week has me worried it’s the latter, but if you follow the roller coaster ride that is this season, it’s time for an up. And Kentucky could really use one if it wants to extend the school-record bowl streak to nine.

I don’t love that this game is in the Swamp at night nor that the Gators seem to be better than they were to start the season. Billy Napier may be fighting for his job, which could make Florida the hungrier squad; however, something about the Gators seems to light a fire under Mark Stoops’ teams. Hopefully, this one is also ready to get the taste of an embarrassing performance out of its mouth and make it four in a row vs. Florida.

Score: Kentucky 17, Florida 13

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Zack Geoghegan

Kentucky has had Florida’s number over the last three seasons. The Wildcats have outscored the Gators 79-43 during that span, holding Florida to 16 or fewer points in all three victories. One of those wins came in Gainesville, too. Our good friend Steven Peake has been rattling off all of the things that have happened since Florida’s last win on the gridiron over Kentucky.

So this situation will be anything but unfamiliar territory for Mark Stoops. And as Drew mentioned, Stoops teams typically respond well after losses. Freshman quarterback DJ Lagway has been decent this season, but nothing indicates he’ll come out and throw for 200 yards against Brad White’s group. Kentucky’s defense is a teensy bit better than the Samford defense Lagway passed circles around in Week 2. This will be his first real SEC start. I don’t see a world where Florida’s offense can score enough points to win this game, even if Kentucky struggles in that regard as well.

Score: Kentucky 20, Florida 13

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Jack Pilgrim

I’m still heartbroken after last week, the letdown of all letdowns against a team I’ll go to the grave saying Kentucky was two-plus scores better than. Stupid Diego Pavia. But as Drew mentioned, this is where Stoops has been at his best and when his teams have responded. I expect more of the same, especially considering what all is on the line coming down the back half of the season with the Wildcats still needing three wins in six tries just to make a bowl. Florida is one of the toss-ups, joining Auburn next week and Louisville to close out the regular season. This is a way to set the tone that we won’t be waiting until that rivalry matchup to decide if we’ll be a postseason participant.

Kentucky stinks at home, but plays well on the road. Florida is starting a true freshman at quarterback and this defense is capable of making him see ghosts, in the spirit of Halloween. The offense needs to get itself figured out — quite the predicament midway through the season — but the anticipated debut of Chip Trayanum should be a massive help.

It’s gonna be another rock fight, but I expect the Cats to come out on top in ugly fashion.

Score: Kentucky 17, Florida 13

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Nick Roush

In the preseason, I predicted Kentucky to lose this football game. It’s my “Steve Spurrier Complex.” I spent my adolescence watching the Gators mollywhop the Wildcats. Surely, Kentucky couldn’t keep getting away with this, right? Charlie Brown has finally been kicking the football. This was going to be the year that Lucy pulled the ball away and the Wildcats were right back on their backs.

Now it’s game week and I got a good feeling about this Kentucky football team.

It’s not just that they’re getting away from Lexington to play on the road. If we’ve learned anything about Mark Stoops over the years, it’s that his teams are bad out of bye weeks and they’re always ready to play against Louisville and Florida. Even when they were over-matched, it was always a close game.

Kentucky has more pros than Florida. Even though DJ Lagway is their messiah, he’s a mistake-prone true freshman. The Kentucky defense will make enough plays to tee it up for Chip Trayanum to become the red zone weapon this offense desperately needs.

Score: Kentucky 21, Florida 13

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Kentucky vs. Florida: How To Watch, Listen

• Kickoff: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network (Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, Marilyn Payne)
• Watch college football games live – try Fubo for free! Click HERE NOW.
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Jeff Piecoro, Dick Gabriel)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 374 (UK); 106 or 190 (Florida)
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also keep up with the game and chat with other fans on our game thread on KSBoard, with Nick Roush and Adam Luckett providing updates from the Swamp and the rest of us from home.