KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Florida

It’s time for Kentucky to start SEC play and the Cats are doing it in a big way. The No. 10 Cats host the No. 6 Florida Gators at 11 a.m. on Saturday, an early tip to start a huge day of college basketball.

Kentucky finished the non-conference schedule 11-2, with wins over both ranked teams they faced, Duke and Gonzaga. Florida brings a 13-0 record to Rupp, one of just three undefeated teams left in the country alongside Tennessee and Oklahoma. The Gators rank in the top ten in several statistical categories, including No. 1 in rebounding and scoring margin and No. 3 in fastbreak points.

This is the first time in AP Poll history that Kentucky is opening SEC play vs. a top-ten opponent, and just the fourth time the Cats are squaring off vs. a ranked one. Who will take home what could prove to be a very crucial victory come March? Ready or not, the KSR crew is weighing in.

Nick Roush

Unlike most of the SEC teams Kentucky will face in 2025, Florida will play the way the Wildcats want to play. Instead of relying on bully-ball inside, they’ll want to run up and down with the Cats. We haven’t seen as much offensive explosiveness as of late, but Kentucky has the home court on its side. A big run or two in the second half will be just enough to close out a nail-biter at Rupp.

Score: Kentucky 89, Florida 86

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Drew Franklin

I won’t lie to you, Big Blue Nation: I am worried about Kentucky’s SEC opener at Rupp Arena. Florida has been outstanding this season, winning every game by an average margin of 23.9 points. That’s the best mark in the country.

Kentucky has a top-20 scoring margin, but I worry about the Wildcats’ slow starts in many games, even the big wins against Gonzaga and Duke. They overcame those two deficits, but UK needs to start throwing the first punch, or the SEC slate will make them pay. An 11 a.m. tip-off isn’t encouraging for a fiery start.

Still, I trust the Big Blue Nation to factor into the first SEC game in Rupp Arena. It’s an early one for the fans, too, but BBN will give Florida fits in the Gators’ first road test while fueling the Cats until the very end.

This one comes down to the last minute. Kentucky wins a thriller to hand Florida its first loss, led by Lamont Butler, whose defense is the difference-maker in his battle with Walter Clayton Jr.

Score: Kentucky 84, Florida 81

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Tyler Thompson

Florida’s 13-0 start and stats are impressive, but one you should also consider is strength of schedule. The Gators’ non-conference schedule ranks No. 249 in the country. They’ve looked really good so far, but mostly against really bad teams. Only four of Florida’s opponents so far are ranked in the top 100 of the KenPom ratings. Even Todd Golden admitted that adversity is coming for the Gators at some point.

Will it be against Kentucky? I sure hope so. While I do think Florida is a bit of a paper tiger, the Gators have one of the best backcourts in the country. Lamont Butler vs. Walter Clayton Jr. will be a very entertaining matchup, but I think more telling is what happens inside. Florida’s bigs (Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu) are struggling right now. The Gators will try to clamp down on the perimeter (they have one the best three-point defenses in the country), so Andrew Carr and Amari Williams could play a huge role.

Like Drew said, I’m worried about Kentucky’s pattern of slow starts — especially in a game as early as this one. However, I also think the Cats are hungry to prove themselves after the bad loss to Ohio State, and a rowdy Rupp Arena will push them to victory.

Score: Kentucky 82, Florida 80

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Zack Geoghegan

The last time Florida came to Rupp Arena, Walter Clayton Jr. was breaking the hearts of Kentucky fans with seven three-pointers, including one late in regulation that sent the game into overtime and pushed the Gators to a 94-91 win. Clayton makes his return to Rupp on Saturday playing even better basketball than he was this time a year ago. Alongside Alijah Martin and Will Richard, Richard makes up one of the best backcourts in college basketball.

By their head coach’s own admission, Florida’s schedule this season hasn’t been all that challenging. A six-point win against North Carolina in a neutral setting a couple of weeks ago has been the lone thriller so far. But at the same time, the Gators don’t play down to their competition. They have demolished every team in front of them, including the likes of Florida State, Wake Forest, Wichita State, Virginia, and Arizona State.

Rebounding will be a key factor in this one. Kentucky is okay at it, Florida is elite at all five positions. The Gators play a similar style to the Wildcats. Expect lots of three-pointers and quick scoring. Don’t be surprised when Clayton, Martin, or Richard are draining fastbreak triples with a defender in their face. This group can hit tough, contested shots. Can Kentucky benefit from the skill advantage they’ll have in the frontcourt? They might have to.

I’m excited for this game. Rupp Arena should be rocking. Florida is a very talented team. This one will be close from start to finish, but the Gators hit just a few more shots down the stretch to stay undefeated.

Score: Florida 88, Kentucky 84

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Jack Pilgrim

Is Florida actually any good? The Gators’ best (and lone Quad 1) win came against an unranked North Carolina team that currently sits on the bubble with six losses and 18 games to go. The analytics look great ranked No. 4 in the NET and No. 6 in KenPom because they’re steamrolling bad competition. That’s how you get the No. 1 scoring margin in college basketball at plus-23.9 and the No. 1 rebounding average at 45.7. Look, I personally believe Todd Golden’s group is strong and will stay in the top half of the SEC through league play — that’s a tough and experienced backcourt — but we have to see these guys beat somebody with a pulse before we crown them king of the best conference in basketball.

Kentucky is trending back in the right direction with shot volume and total makes — they’ve hit the double-figure mark in three of four after a stretch of eight or worse in four straight — though rebounding has taken a recent hit, combining for just 55 boards in two games. The Cats can’t afford to get outworked on the glass against a team ranked third in rebounding margin at plus-12.8.

Those are the keys to the game, and I prefer UK slowly figuring itself back out again shooting the ball while being left with no choice but to respond after being punched in the face recently with rebounding production. It’s a chance to prove itself in one area and a chance at redemption in the other.

The pace plays in Kentucky’s favor to take and make shots while the Rupp Arena crowd is expected to be an all-timer. It’s not often you get morning basketball between two top-10 teams. Big Blue Nation is going to be fired up and the Wildcats will respond.

Score: Kentucky 87, Florida 81

No. 10 Kentucky vs. No. 6 Florida: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 11 a.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 84
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tipoff, or join the conversation on KSBoard.