KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Ole Miss

Kentucky is hitting the road for the first time in 2024. They’ll face a challenging task against an undefeated Ole Miss team that leads the nation in multiple statistical categories.

The Cats are 15.5-point underdogs. If they can pull off the stunner against the sixth-ranked Revels, it will be the highest-ranked win on the road since Kentucky knocked off No. 4 Penn State in 1977. Will they shock the world? The KSR staff weighs in.

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Nick Roush

I was the only person to pick the Wildcats to pull off the upset in the preseason. Only a coward would back off that belief now.

The offense, particularly the passing game, steals all of the headlines, but this season’s success will ultimately be determined by the upgrades Ole Miss made on defense from the transfer portal this offseason. Walter Nolen is a game-wrecker in the interior and Princely Umanmielen is exceptional on the edge. So far, the defense has looked the part up front, but there’s a catch.

Ole Miss is untested. Lane Kiffin said it himself. What happens when they face a little adversity?

Ole Miss will burn hot. They deliver early haymakers. If Kentucky can land a counterpunch and weather the early storm by effectively running the football against this front seven, the Wildcats are talented enough to make the Ole Miss offense one-dimensional. That recipe is enough to keep them in the game. To win it, Kentucky must take care of the ball, hit a few explosive plays on offense, and turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns.

My head is telling me that one of those scenarios will likely not play out. Kentucky has the lowest red-zone touchdown scoring percentage in the SEC. That’s gotta change. Although my confidence is not high, what kind of coward backs off an upset pick the day before a game? Not this guy.

Score: Kentucky 31, Ole Miss 27

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Drew Franklin

Tempo, tempo, tempo. Lane Kiffin loves it. He wants to go fast and continue the hot start by the Rebels’ offense in 2024. Over four weeks, Ole Miss leads several statistical categories nationally, including points and yards per game. QB Jaxson Dart is lighting it up in his third year guiding that offense.

Meanwhile, Mark Stoops came up on Iowa football. He wants to slow the game to a crawl, get stops, and win the field position battle. Stoops has the defense to play his brand of ball this year, as shown in the Wildcats’ fight against No. 1 Georgia two weeks ago.

The coaches’ contrasting styles will clash on Saturday in Oxford, where Ole Miss will play its first SEC game of the year to Kentucky’s third. The Rebels’ step-up in competition will slow Ole Miss down early in the game, allowing Stoops to take control of the pace. It will be a close, low-scoring game at halftime.

But as time goes on, Dart’s offense will hit on enough explosive plays to put a couple of touchdowns on the board, more than Kentucky can score in response. Already a flawed offense, UK will struggle with its first road environment, leading to a costly turnover that proves to be the difference-maker in the end. We’ve seen those moments in this series before.

Kentucky’s defense travels, but its offense doesn’t. I hope to be very wrong about the latter.

Score: Ole Miss 24, Kentucky 16

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Tyler Thompson

It may sound incredibly basic, but this game comes down to two questions: can Kentucky’s defense slow down Ole Miss’ high-powered offense, and if so, can the Cats’ anemic offense score enough points to win? I’m more confident in the former than the latter, which is why I picking Kentucky to lose — but the recipe for an upset is there.

As the others have mentioned, Ole Miss has yet to face any real competition. Wake Forest and Georgia Southern are the two best teams the Rebels have played so far and they beat them by a combined score of 92-19. Kentucky’s defense showed it is elite vs. Georgia, but keeping Lane Kiffin’s offense from scoring will be nearly impossible. The Rebels will score points; to have a shot, Kentucky needs to keep that figure under 30.

The best the Cats can hope for is staying within striking distance and slowing the game down to where the Rebels get frustrated and make mistakes. Ole Miss is tied for first in the SEC in penalties this season. Control the tempo with defense and the ground game, force more turnovers than you commit, and get a few explosive plays of your own on offense and we could be celebrating a top-ten upset. That’s a lot to ask from a team that has yet to show consistency — especially on offense — in its first road test. Too much, in my opinion.

Score: Ole Miss 31, Kentucky 17

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Jack Pilgrim

I’m a sucker for a good time, I’ll admit it. Everything in my head is telling me it makes no sense and the offense just hasn’t proved it can keep up in a shootout against competition with a pulse. The defense is elite, but Lane Kiffin is Lane Kiffin and the Rebels have outscored opponents 220-22 through four weeks of the season. Kentucky’s best offensive showing of the season — 41 points vs. Ohio this past Saturday — barely topped Ole Miss’ worst showing in a 40-point effort vs. Wake Forest.

But something has to give in Oxford, right? Stoops is known for losing one he shouldn’t, but also winning one he shouldn’t. If we can pencil that South Carolina disaster in for the former, why can’t this be the latter? Kentucky has lost in one-score games in its past three matchups dating back to 2017, the most recent being an absolute heartbreaker on the road with the game-winning touchdown taken off the board in the final minute. If there was ever a time for revenge, it’s now, the Wildcats needing to steal back some momentum to find the win column in the SEC for the first time this year.

The offense finally found its groove this past weekend, now it gets to prove its capable of firing on all cylinders against a top-10 opponent on the road. Easier said than done, sure, but this group’s got too many playmakers to not make plays against arguably the most explosive offense in college football.

Score: Kentucky 27, Ole Miss 24

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Zack Geoghegan

Ole Miss has scored at least 40 points in all four games this season, but the Rebels haven’t faced a defense with Top 25 potential like Kentucky has. That streak ends on Saturday. Brad White’s group will still give up a handful of explosive plays to Jaxson Dart, but they will be much fewer and far between. The defense will do enough to give the Wildcats a chance to win.

It’s Kentucky’s offense and Lane Kiffin’s home record (24-5 since 2020) that present a cause for concern. The 41-point showing against Ohio last week was promising, but Ole Miss still has a stout defense that should not be taken lightly. Vaught–Hemingway Stadium will be sold out. Brock Vandagriff has yet to suit up as QB1 on a stage such as this one. Alex Raynor will knock in his 13th straight field goal and the defense will score a touchdown of its own, but that leaves just one offensive touchdown for Vandagriff and company. It won’t be enough in Oxford.

Score: Ole Miss 28, Kentucky 17

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Adam Luckett

The Ole Miss offense versus the Kentucky defense is one of the top matchups in Week 5. Lane Kiffin’s offense will move the football and make Kentucky play in space, but I believe we will see Brad White’s defense win its fair share of battles forcing punts and field goals. Kentucky will hold their own in this matchup.

Where this game will be won for the home team is when Ole Miss is on defense.

Kentucky struggles to pass protect and create explosive plays. That will make it very hard to score consistently against an Ole Miss defense with a stout defensive front and a scheme that will show two-high shells and some three-deep. The Kentucky run game will find success, but we will likely see numerous drives bog down again around midfield.

Kentucky finds the endzone but has to settle for field goals. That won’t be enough with a top-five offense on the other sideline. The Rebels keep Kentucky at an arm’s length for most of the afternoon at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

Score: Ole Miss 33, Kentucky 19

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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss: How To Watch, Listen

• Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC (Sean McDonough, Greg McElroy, Molly McGrath)
• Watch college football games live – try Fubo for free! Click HERE NOW.
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Jeff Piecoro, Dick Gabriel)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 374 (UK); 106 or 190 (Ole Miss)
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also keep up with the game and chat with other fans on our game thread on KSBoard, with Nick Roush and Adam Luckett providing updates from Oxford and the rest of us from home.