KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt

Kentucky returns to action on Saturday to host the hottest team in college football, the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy heads to Lexington fresh off its upset of No. 1 Alabama and the drowning of one of its goalposts in the Cumberland River. In Lexington, the ‘Dores run into a well-rested Kentucky team eager to play its first game since the Wildcats’ defeat of sixth-ranked Ole Miss in Oxford two weeks ago.

Before the game kicks off at 7:45 p.m. on SEC Saturday Night, the Kentucky Sports Radio office has a round of predictions for the outcome.

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Drew Franklin

Something’s fishy about the movement around the betting line on this game. The consensus around Lexington is that the 14-point spread is too high, yet the spread climbed higher as the week went on despite nearly 90 percent of bets being on Vanderbilt. That means the sharp money (the big spenders) like Kentucky to cover. They’re the professionals. I want to be on their side because when a line looks funny, it’s better to be with them than the public.

So, following the desert’s lead, I think Kentucky’s defense ends the Diego Pavia parade, limiting Vanderbilt to half of the points it scored against Alabama. Brad White‘s defense already played well against two of the best quarterbacks in the country, Carson Beck and Jaxson Dart, and I think the Wildcats are eager to rattle Pavia in Lexington. Big Blue Nation relishes that opportunity at Kroger Field, too.

Offensively, there are still concerns about finding the end zone, but overall, Kentucky is talented enough to move the ball at home on a banged-up Vandy defense. Kentucky takes another step forward against the ‘Dores, beating college football’s new Cinderella by 17.

Score: Kentucky 30, Vanderbilt 13

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Adam Luckett

Vanderbilt and star quarterback Diego Pavia are the talk of college football this week. Most have forgotten about Kentucky’s win at Ole Miss in Week 5 at this point. Clark Lea‘s organization is the most popular program in the country at the moment.

Kentucky has a chance to change that on Saturday night at Kroger Field.

This is a perfect motivation spot for Mark Stoops and his coaching staff coming off the bye week. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt should come down from the highest high in program history. I fully expect Vanderbilt’s ball-control offense and Kentucky’s stingy defense to trade blows, but this game will be won when Kentucky has the football.

The points have not come yet in SEC games, but Bush Hamdan‘s offenses have shown improvement each week. If that trend continues, we will see a good day for Kentucky as Vanderbilt is allowing 32 points per game and 6.36 yards per play against FBS competition. The Wildcats get a lead early and keep Vandy at arm’s length.

Kentucky’s numbers (0-8 ATS off the bye since 2017) are not pretty, but I would be surprised if this team does not play well on Saturday. The home team improves to 2-2 in league play to begin a very important four-game stretch.

Score: Kentucky 27, Vanderbilt 16

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Tyler Thompson

I was nervous about the Vanderbilt game before the ‘Dores upset No. 1 Alabama. Although that win showed Vandy is legit, specifically Diego Pavia, it actually makes me more confident in the Cats tomorrow.

Historically, Kentucky isn’t good coming off bye weeks, and without Vandy’s win over Bama, could easily have overlooked the ‘Dores coming off its own big win over Ole Miss. Now, the Cats have had an entire week to hear/read about Vandy, Pavia, and the upset of the season. Under the lights at Kroger Field, they can bring the Dores back to Earth and keep the momentum they built in Oxford rolling.

Brad White has also had extra time to scout Pavia and Vanderbilt’s offense. Kentucky’s defense flustered two Heisman hopefuls in Carson Beck and Jaxson Dart; I expect the unit to make life similarly difficult for Pavia — although I’m sure he’ll still get in a few “How did he do that?” moments. The key to the game will be what the Cats can do on offense. Coming off their best performance of the season, I’m looking for more progress against a Vandy defense that allows the second most points per game in the SEC.

The big spread worries me a little but I think the Cats will get it done on a fun night at Kroger Field.

Score: Kentucky 28, Vanderbilt 17

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Zack Geoghegan

Vanderbilt is about to get hit with a reality check. The high of beating Alabama will not transfer onto the field this Saturday. Vandy’s loss to Georgia State in Week 3 still has me seriously questioning the Commodores’ sustainability. Even the three-point loss to Missouri doesn’t feel the same after the Tigers were smacked by 31 points last week. I’m sure many outsiders feel the same about Kentucky’s Week 2 loss to South Carolina, but Georgia State is not South Carolina. I’m still not fully confident in knowing which Kentucky team will show up on a weekly basis, but the trends are pointing upward. I’m relying on that slow progression to show up again against Vandy.

There will be no surprise about what’s in store for Kentucky coming off the bye week. I expect the best showing from the offense of the season and another excellent all-around performance from Brad White’s elite defense. The ‘Cats will blow this game open in the second half and win a blowout. And yet, the national polls will still find a way to leave Kentucky out of the Top 25.

Score: Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 14

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Jack Pilgrim

Vanderbilt beating Alabama was the best thing that could have happened to Kentucky and its poor track record coming off the bye week under Mark Stoops. For whatever reason, the Cats are almost never prepared and have laid a couple of massive eggs in key matchups. Luckett mentioned it, but that 0-8 ATS mark in this spot since 2017 is pretty damning. What could possibly be the excuse now? Overlooking the Commodores would be impossible after becoming the hottest thing in college football, Diego Pavia on every TV show and social media post since Saturday evening.

As bad as Stoops has been coming off the bye week, he’s equally good with a chip on his shoulder and spoiling the fun for others picking up momentum. You want Vanderbilt thinking they’re world-beaters still coming down from the high of last week before punching the nerds in the mouth.

It feels like the world has forgotten about Kentucky’s upset in Oxford, and that’s a great thing. This defense has the potential to be historically great — it’s already ranked No. 5 nationally overall and No. 11 in scoring — while the offense is finally finding its groove. That’s a good recipe for success going into a matchup against the sport’s biggest media darling.

Score: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 10

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Nick Roush

I’d like to thank Diego Pavia and the Vanderbilt Commodores for making this one interesting. The Alabama upset is giving this team some much-needed juice out of the Bye, an issue that has plagued Mark Stoops’ program throughout his tenure.

Kentucky’s defense may let Vanderbilt get some points off its scripted first drive and that’s just fine. The Cats will settle in and the law of averages will take over. The Commodores have only one turnover this fall and now they’re facing one of the nation’s best havoc defenses. That’s going to lead to some takeaways that give Kentucky a comfortable enough lead.

This is the worst defense the Wildcats will see in SEC play. My only apprehension against picking the Cats to cover the spread is the red zone. Kentucky’s 56.25% red zone touchdown percentage ranks 15th in the SEC.

Vandy will try to slow things down and limit possessions. Turning things into a rock fight is Mark Stoops’ M.O. The Wildcats will win, but there will be a few more field goals than we’d like to see in this Saturday night slugfest.

Score: Kentucky 23, Vanderbilt 13

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Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt: How To Watch, Listen

• Kickoff: 7:45 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network (Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic)
• Watch college football games live – try Fubo for free! Click HERE NOW.
• Local Radio: UK Sports Network (Tom Leach, Jeff Piecoro, Dick Gabriel)
• AM: 840 WHAS, 630 WLAP
• FM: 98.1 WBUL
• Online: iHeart Radio
• Sirius XM: 160 or 192 (UK); 374 (Vanderbilt)
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also keep up with the game and chat with other fans on our game thread on KSBoard, with Nick Roush, Adam Luckett, and Drew Franklin providing updates from Kroger Field and the rest of us from home.