KSR Staff Predictions: No. 14 Kentucky vs. South Carolina

The Kentucky Wildcats hit a rough patch during Mark Pope‘s first season in Lexington. Kentucky has lost four of their last five games, and the last two were rough. On Tuesday, we saw the Cats trail by 23 at halftime, the third-largest halftime deficit in SEC history. The last time they were at Rupp, Big Blue Nation suffered an emotionally deflating loss to John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks.

South Carolina might be the medicine Kentucky needs. The Gamecocks are the only team in the SEC still looking for their first conference win. Will it be in stunning fashion on Saturday afternoon in Lexington? The KSR crew weighs in.

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Nick Roush

Get ready to sweat, Big Blue Nation. This is going to be a close one.

Kentucky is 0-6 Against the Spread (ATS) against unranked power conference foes. The only outright win was over Louisville. When they’re supposed to beat the snot out of competent foes, they underperform.

South Carolina doesn’t win these games, but they’re good at punching above their weight and keeping it close. In their last four games against ranked SEC foes, they’ve lost by a combined 13 points. That includes a 3-point loss to top-ranked Auburn and a 1-point defeat to No. 5 Florida.

Here’s why Saturday may be slightly different. All of those close calls were at Colonial Life Arena. When Kentucky struggles, it’s against teams that make shots. South Carolina ranks 13th in 3-point shooting and 14th in 2-point shooting in SEC play. It probably won’t be the prettiest game, but Kentucky should have enough firepower at home to get back on the right track.

Score: Kentucky 81, South Carolina 71

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Zack Geoghegan

Rupp Arena should give Kentucky the extra jolt it needs to pull out a victory. As Nick mentioned, South Carolina has managed to keep games close against good teams, but only at home. Kentucky is 4-5 on the road/in neutral settings this season but 11-2 in Lexington. The ‘Cats shoot better at home, too: 39.2 percent from deep at home on 11 made threes per game compared to 36.2 percent on nine makes per game on the road.

Lamont Butler is trending in the right direction but it feels unlikely he will make his return on Saturday. The ‘Cats shouldn’t need him against the SEC’s worst offense. The major worry will be sophomore forward/future first-round NBA Draft pick Collin Murray-Boyles, who can do a little bit of everything on both sides of the floor. He can score, rebound, pass, and defend. Everyone else on the roster is far less efficient.

I’ll be interested to see how Mark Pope treats South Carolina’s shooters. He said this week the numbers have been betraying him a bit when it comes to leaving bad three-point shooters open. The Gamecocks are 4-1 this season when hitting 10 or more triples but 6-11 when failing to reach that mark. Run South Carolina off the line and force them to make tough twos.

We’re as close to “must-win” territory as you can get. Pope will have his guys ready to play though. Kentucky wins going away.

Score: Kentucky 90, South Carolina 78

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Jack Pilgrim

I’ll take it a step further and say this one is a must-win for the Cats. You just can’t afford to lose three straight and five of six in this conference, certainly not in a Quad 3 matchup at home against the worst team in the SEC. I don’t care that South Carolina has become the king of almost beating good competition and the Gamecocks are probably better than their record suggests they are. But Kentucky needs to prove it is better than its record at 4-5 in league play while playing its worst basketball of the season as injuries pile up. Lose this one and you’re on the cusp of the wheels falling off with a likely Wednesday start in the SEC Tournament. This league is unforgiving and you have to find your advantages when you can get them. Thus far, the Wildcats have failed to capitalize with mediocre losses dragging down the excellent wins. This would be the worst loss of the season — and it wouldn’t be particularly close, either.

Kentucky is horrendous defensively, but the good news is South Carolina is somehow worse offensively. If the Cats can’t slow down a team that ranks No. 275 in scoring, No. 288 in pace and No. 300 in turnover rate nationally, there may just not be any answers for this group on that end of the floor. This is your feel-good opportunity to finally get something going, forcing turnovers and getting stops while the offense does its thing.

Collin Murray-Boyles is a star, but Andrew Carr is finding his footing once again at the forward spot coming back from injury. He’ll need to be at his best there while letting Jamarii Thomas (39.7 FG%) shoot the Gamecocks out of the game.

This may be stupid because I’ve picked wins in every game during this losing skid, but the Cats have to have a bounce-back statement win to build confidence coming down the stretch. Not a nail-biter, not a heroic comeback after digging yet another ridiculous hole, a statement win. 40 minutes of complete play leading to a double-digit home win. Please?

Score: Kentucky 85, South Carolina 73

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Tyler Thompson

I’m now riding a five-game losing streak in predicting games, but this will not be a “Fade This” or jinx pick. This and LSU are the most winnable games left on Kentucky’s schedule. The Cats followed up an emotional loss to Arkansas with a jarringly bad first half at Ole Miss. Hopefully, Mark Pope’s fiery halftime speech shook this team out of its funk. They played better in the second half, but absolutely cannot afford a loss Saturday vs. South Carolina, which has yet to win a game in the SEC.

This has all the ingredients for a “get back” game. South Carolina’s offense may be as bad as Kentucky’s defense. The Rupp Arena crowd will be desperate for a win. Outside of Collin Murray-Boyles going nuclear, the Cats would really have to crap the bed to drop this one. I’m not letting my mind go there just yet. Tuesday night was concerning, but I think being at home (without the weight of facing John Calipari), the memories of Pope’s white-hot halftime speech, and a healthier Andrew Carr will right the ship.

The first half will be closer than we like, but ultimately, the Cats will pull away on what will hopefully be a feel-good Saturday afternoon.

Score: Kentucky 83, South Carolina 71

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky has not covered against an unranked power conference foe, and I’m not picking them to do it now, but this is one the Cats should have under control for most of the game. South Carolina has massive offensive issues and that will show up on Saturday in Rupp Arena.

One of Kentucky’s best defensive performances of the season will occur on Saturday as the Cats become another team to hold the Gamecocks under 70 points. However, we will see some of that extra emphasis on defense negate the other end of the floor.

It has been a minute since Kentucky had a poor perimeter shooting performance. That occurs on Saturday, but Carolina doesn’t have enough firepower to leave with a victory. Kentucky gets a much-needed win in one of the ugliest games of the season. The scoring picks up late with a bunch of free throws.

Score: Kentucky 75, South Carolina 67

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Drew Franklin

Kentucky can’t take another loss and still feel comfortable with its positioning for the postseason. Last-place South Carolina is the ideal opponent for a get-right game after a disappointing week for the Wildcats. The Gamecocks haven’t won a game in conference play, with an offense that also ranks last across the conference. So, Kentucky should (and better) defend homecourt in Rupp Arena after dropping two in a row this season and losing the last home game against South Carolina in 2023 as a 19.5-point favorite.

As for who plays well, my gut feeling says Andrew Carr is due for a big game. Koby Brea needs to be in that conversation as well, but I’ve been burned too many times predicting big games from Brea in SEC play. I’d love for him to heat back up in this game alongside a good Carr day.

Score: Kentucky 85, South Carolina 74

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Kentucky vs. South Carolina: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: Noon EST
• Television: ESPN2 (John Schriffen, Daymeon Fishback)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 84
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.