KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky at Texas

More than halfway through SEC play, Kentucky is finally getting a shot against one of the SEC’s two former Big 12 counterparts. The Wildcats are playing Texas for just the third time in school history. Will Kentucky stay hot and win its third straight? The KSR crew forecasts the Saturday night showdown.

---

Nick Roush

Kentucky struggles against opponents who can knock down open shots. We all know Tre Johnson can go off at any moment, but Rodney Terry’s group isn’t well-known for its high-octane offense. Against SEC foes, Texas ranks 10th in effective FG%, 13th in 2-point FG%, and 11th in offensive efficiency.

The slowest-tempo team in the SEC will make the Cats play in the halfcourt, which puts a lot of pressure on Amari Williams. Kentucky will be in good hands if he can stay out of foul trouble. Even with the Cats missing multiple guards, Texas doesn’t have a defense that creates a ton of turnovers with ball pressure.

The Horns will be desperate for a big win in what should be a pretty rowdy environment. Even with Kentucky down three guards, in a chess match between Rodney Terry and Mark Pope, I’m taking Mark Pope every time.

Score: Kentucky 77, Texas 71

---

Drew Franklin

A couple of weeks ago, I predicted a four-game winning streak for the Wildcats after the trip to Ole Miss, beginning with the South Carolina game (win), followed by fifth-ranked Tennessee (win) and the upcoming games at Texas and against Vanderbilt. We’re halfway there, friends.

Even with the unforeseen injuries, I’m sticking with the four-game run, so give me Kentucky to win in Austin on Saturday night. The Longhorns are going the wrong way, losers of three of the last four games. Most recently, Texas allowed 103 points to Alabama at home in a 23-point loss. Kentucky won’t match that margin, but it will still fill up the scoreboard, winning somewhere in the ballpark of 88-83.

Koby Brea will be the high scorer as he continues his return to form out of a shooting slump. Trent Noah will join him in knocking down enough 3s to escape the Lonestar State with a win.

Score: Kentucky 88, Texas 83

---

Adam Luckett

How long can Kentucky play winning basketball in this conference without Lamont Butler, Kerr Kriisa, and Jaxson Robinson? That is a more than fair question to ask. The Wildcats could be extremely limited in this trip to ATX.

But the matchup stands out in a good way. Threes are greater than twos.

Texas doesn’t shoot a lot of threes (No. 259 nationally in three-point shot volume) and ranks No. 193 nationally in three-point field goal percentage defense (34.0%). SEC foes are shooting 36 percent from three against the Horns. Can Kentucky generate enough three-point attempts with the dribble penetration from Butler?

I think they find a way. Texas doesn’t force turnovers and is just an OK rebounding team. Rodney Terry’s bunch is also trending in the wrong direction having lost three in a row entering Saturday’s contest.

Kentucky should have a great shot to win as long as they do not go ice-cold from three.

Score: Kentucky 78, Texas 74

---

Tyler Thompson

If we’re following the pattern of this season, this would be a disappointing loss to a “bad” team after a big win over a really good one. Kentucky tends to throw in a clunker when you least expect it, especially on the road. The Cats banded together to beat Tennessee without Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler for the final 8:40; can their makeshift backcourt take care of business on the road? I’m worried the magic will run out.

Not helping matters is the fact that Texas is desperate. The Longhorns have lost three straight and four of their last five; fans booed Rodney Terry at the end of the 103-80 drubbing by No. 2 Alabama on Tuesday. After coming into the season with high expectations, the Longhorns are now on the NCAA Tournament bubble; a win over Kentucky could help change that.

All that said, I think the Cats’ momentum from the win over Tennessee will carry them through. Texas has been trending in the wrong direction in a variety of ways (rebounding, defense, injuries). As long as Tre Johnson doesn’t go nuclear (or another Longhorn finally steps up to help him) and the Cats don’t go cold, they’ll bring home a win from Austin.

Score: Kentucky 83, Texas 78

---

Zack Geoghegan

I’m very interested to see who Mark Pope rolls with at point guard in the event Lamont Butler and/or Jaxson Robinson can’t go. Will Travis Perry start? Will Otega Oweh or Koby Brea play on the ball more? Or is it mostly irrelevant considering Amari Williams will operate most of the offense anyway? I’m leaning toward the latter, but no matter what, initiating the offense and getting into a scoring position could be challenging for Kentucky.

Luckily, Texas isn’t all that great. The Longhorns have dropped three straight. They’re 2-4 at home in the SEC this season and have played the worst defense of any team in the conference in those games, according to BarkTorvik. Alabama just poured in 103 points on Texas earlier this week. There are good individual pieces on the roster such as future NBA lottery pick Tre Johnson, Arthur Kaluma, and Jordan Pope, but the whole does not equal a winning basketball team in the SEC.

I feel much more confident about Kentucky’s ability to overcome injuries now than I was going into the Tennessee game. We can trust the likes of Perry and Trent Noah to not be net negatives. Brea has looked like a different player in the last two games and he’ll show up again for this one. With a 20-point scoring night from Oweh, the ‘Cats run away with this one down the stretch.

Score: Kentucky 81, Texas 75

---

Jack Pilgrim

Texas is desperate and Rodney Terry is fighting for his job after hearing from the boo birds earlier in the week, but I’m not quite sure it matters because the Longhorns just aren’t very good. They’re a top-35 team in the NET and sitting on the bubble because they have no bad losses (9-0 against Quad 3 and 4 competition) but they also haven’t beaten a ton of great teams with just three Quad 1 wins. Tre Johnson is a star, but does he actually contribute to winning beyond empty-calorie scoring? The jury is still out on that one — part of why he’s a projected lottery pick, but not an obvious top-five selection.

The Longhorns don’t scare me, but Kentucky’s ridiculous injury situation does. The Cats may be riding a by-committee ball-handling unit of Travis Perry, Otega Oweh, Koby Brea and Amari Williams with depth in a tough spot right now. Ansley Almonor and Trent Noah have stepped up in their expanded roles, too, and that may be a necessity again Saturday if UK wants to pull it out in Austin.

Barring an Ole Miss-level collapse, I trust the Cats to hit enough shots to scrape by as they buy more time inching back to full strength.

Score: Kentucky 79, Texas 72

---

Kentucky at Texas: How to Watch, Listen

• Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
• Television: ESPN (Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes)
• Home Radio: UK Sports Network – 630 WLAP, iHeart Radio (Tom Leach, Goose Givens)
• Online Radio: iHeart
• Satellite Radio: Sirius 81
• Live Stats: StatBroadcast

You can also follow the game via our new LIVE BLOG on the website, which will begin an hour before tip-off, or join the conversation on KSBoard.