KSReds: Cincinnati Reds Season Preview

How can you not be romantic about baseball? There is something special about Opening Day that signifies the beginning of spring and turning the corner after colder weather months. Opening Day for the Cincinnati Reds means even more. It is a tradition unlike any other to have Major League Baseball’s oldest franchise begin their season at home. Technically, the season began all of the way back on Wednesday, March 20th with the MLB World Tour – Seoul Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the San Diego Padres 5-2 in South Korea. However, baseball season doesn’t really begin until the first pitch is thrown at Great American Ball Park.

Veteran right-hander Frankie Montas will have the honor of being the Reds Opening Day starter on Thursday evening. Formerly a key rotation piece for the Oakland A’s, Montas was signed to a one-year, $16-million dollar deal this offseason after making just one appearance for the New York Yankees in 2023.

Overall, the Cincinnati Reds are surrounded by optimism for the 2024 season. They are coming off of a third above .500 finish in the last four seasons and have a plethora of young talent. However, finishing above .500 still hasn’t translated to any postseason success. Manager David Bell now has pressure on him to take a step forward. Thanks to the Detroit Lions reaching the NFC Championship game, the Reds now have the longest postseason drought without a single win across all major sports.

With exciting young stars such as Elly De La Cruz, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain, there is “win now” pressure in Cincinnati this season. However, being healthy and available will once again be a crucial part of their success. Marte was recently slapped with an 80-game PED suspension. Meanwhile, McLain and outfielder TJ Friedl will begin the season on the injured list with shoulder and wrist issues respectively. Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft have all missed time in their young careers as well. The best ability is sometimes availability and it remains to be seen if the Reds young talent can play enough games to get them to where they need to go.

KSReds coverage is back for another year as we will provide series recaps throughout the season. Be sure to check in on KSBoard as well where we will run a KSReds thread and have plenty of additional discourse on the team throughout the season. Here is to a fun, and hopefully successful, season covering the Cincinnati Reds!

Cincinnati Reds Starting Pitchers

Rotation: Frankie Montas (RHP), Hunter Greene (RHP), Nick Martinez (RHP), Graham Ashcraft (RHP), Andrew Abbott (LHP)

Notably missing from the Cincinnati Reds Opening Day rotation are two left-handers in Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson. Lodolo’s inability to stay healthy has plagued him throughout his young career. His talent is undeniable, but it doesn’t matter much when he is on the injured list. Williamson will miss time with a shoulder issue as well. He showed some real flashes during his rookie season finishing 5-5 with a 4.46 earned run average in 23 starts. If he can be a consistent anchor in the Reds’ rotation it will be a good sign for the season.

Hunter Greene is the potential ace of this staff, but he too will need to stay healthy. The flame-throwing 24-year old is just 9-20 with a 4.62 ERA in his career, but has the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy. David Bell will simply be looking for consistency from veterans Montas and Martinez. The former has had more recent success while the latter reinvented himself as a reliever in San Diego after being out of the MLB for five seasons. Martinez was formerly in the starting rotation for the Texas Rangers from 2014-2017. As more arms get healthy, look for him to transition back to a bullpen role.

Overall, there is reason for cautious optimism for this group. Greene, Ashcraft, and Abbott are a year older and have the talent to carry the rotation. However, their ability to stay healthy will be critical to this team’s success. Getting 75 combined starts from those three, plus whatever you can end up getting from Lodolo and Williamson, would go a long way towards this being a successful season for the Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Bullpen

Tejay Antone (RHP), Fernando Cruz (RHP), Alexis Diaz (RHP), Buck Farmer (RH), Emilio Pagan (RHP), Lucas Sims (RHP), Brent Suter (LHP), Justin Wilson (LHP)

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen had been much maligned in recent seasons. In 2021 they were third worst in the National League posting an ERA of 4.99. They were third worst again in 2022, but improved to a 4.72 earned run average. Finally, last season, the bullpen took a big jump to a respectable 4.11 ERA. The good news is that a lot of the same faces are back for another season. However, the bad news is they really struggled in spring training.

Consistency will be the name of the game for the bullpen this season. While it was much improved in 2023, there was very much a feast or famine feel to the experience. There were times where the Reds were absolutely lights out in relief. However, when the wheels would fall off they fell off hard and fast. Getting to that 4.11 earned run average felt like it was a week of shutout innings in relief followed by a week of three blown leads. This season it would be beneficial to see the rollercoaster flatten out a little bit. Being anchored by All-Star Alexis Diaz, plus the return of Tejay Antone, should provide a higher floor for Cincinnati’s relief pitching the season.

Cincinnati Reds Infield

Jeimer Candelario (3B, 1B), Elly De La Cruz (SS, 3B), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (1B, 3B), Santiago Espinal (2B, 3B, SS), Jonathan India (2B), Luke Maile (C), Tyler Stephenson (C, 1B)

Unfortunately, there are two Opening Day starters missing from the Cincinnati Reds infield. Matt McLain will miss time, likely significant time, due to a shoulder injury. Then, there is Noelvi Marte who is suspended for 80 games for PED use. In their absence, David Bell will need Jonathan India to return to his 2021 Rookie of the Year self. If India doesn’t step up, expect to see a lot of Santiago Espinal who was an All-Star in 2022 with the Toronto Blue Jays. At third base, Jeimer Candelario will likely get the nod after hitting a career-best 22 home runs and driving in a career-best 70 runs in 2023. He and Christian Encarnacio-Strand will look to provide some much-needed pop to this lineup.

We’ve already gone too long without mentioning the potential star of this entire organization, Elly De La Cruz. Relying on a 22-year old who doesn’t make consistent contact feels like a lot to ask. However, De La Cruz has the talent to take it on. He is arguably the most electric player in baseball once the ball is in play, but will have to improve on his .300 on-base percentage from his rookie season.

This infield group feels a bit underwhelming, but there is hope for guys to take a step forward. India could return to his Rookie of the Year levels of production. Encarnacion-Strand is a true professional hitter that could blossom into an All-Star. De La Cruz could take a sophomore jump to All-Star contention as well. However, without Marte and McClain this group will remain incomplete.

Cincinnati Reds Outfield

Will Benson (L), Stuart Fairchild (R), Jake Fraley (L), Nick Martini (L), Spencer Steer (R), Bubba Thompson (R)

The outfield, from an offensive standpoint, will be the strength of the Cincinnati Reds roster this season. Spencer Steer had a monster rookie season finishing with a .271 batting average, 23 home runs, and 86 RBI. He will be relied upon to provide some pop and drive it runs at a high level this season. Jake Fraley will look to replicate his 2023 production as well after posting the best numbers of his career. Then, there is Will Benson who had one of the strangest seasons of anyone in Major League Baseball. Out of the gate, nobody looked more overmatched. However, after a trip down to Louisville, Benson returned a new man. The 25-year old athletic freak went on to hit .275 and could be set for a breakout season.

Off the bench, Nick Martini will added some needed power to this Reds lineup. The left-handed bat had a slugging percentage of .583 in his 79 plate appearances. Stuart Fairchild will provide a pinch-hitting option from the right side and adds a little bit of speed.

Overall, this is a deep outfield with a good combination of skills. Their defense may not be outstanding, that is a major weakness of this Cincinnati Reds lineup as a whole, but these guys will hit. If one of the Steer, Fraley, Benson group can emerge as an All-Star candidate it would do a lot for helping a young Reds lineup come along.

Projected Opening Day Lineup

Jonathan Indiana (4)

Elly De La Cruz (6)

Spencer Steer (7)

Jake Fraley (9)

Jeimer Candelario (5)

Will Benson (8)

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3)

Nick Martini (DH)

Tyler Stephenson (2)

Season Outlook

There is cause for some cautious optimism for fans of the Cincinnati Reds. They have one of the best young rosters in all of baseball and are coming off of their third winning season in four years. However, two key infielders will miss at least half of the season and health of the pitching staff remains a constant issue. This team has been close for awhile now, but it is time to break through.

Small market teams like the Reds have to catch lightening in a bottle with young talent before they demand big money on the open market. You may only get a few years every decade where you can make your run and Cincinnati is in jeopardy of letting their window close without so much as a playoff victory. It is too early to call this a do-or-die season, but the clock is already ticking. David Bell and the Reds need to at least take another step forward this season.

Cincinnati has two of the most exciting young players in baseball both on the mound and in the field. Hunter Greene, who is still just 24, and Elly De La Cruz at 22 will be the face of the franchise for as long as they are in town. If they can approach true stardom this season then it’ll be a great year for the Redlegs. However, just a couple of injuries or sophomore slumps could also derail the positive momentum. With a young team the future is always going to be sold. At some point though you have to cash in. Time will tell whether or not 2024 is the year for the Cincinnati Reds.