KSReds Preview: 2022 Cincinnati Reds

With Kansas defeating North Carolina on Monday night in New Orleans the college basketball season officially ended. However, Major League Baseball was right on its heels ready to start. Many fans of the Cincinnati Reds have been displeased with their offseason. After an 83-79 season, owner Bob Castellini conducted what at times felt like a fire sale during the winter months.

Fan favorites Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez are gone to Seattle. Nick Castellanos signed a $100 million dollar deal with the Phillies. Left-handed reliever Amir Garrett and catcher Tucker Barnhart were among the other notable Reds players to leave during the offseason. However, a 10-7 spring training record has created some cautious optimism around Cincinnati. Riding a four-game winning streak amidst an offensive explosion, the Reds may just prove to be okay.

A solid lineup with natural platoon options, a young starting rotation, and some new faces in the bullpen are the cornerstones of that cautious optimism. The ball club will get thrown to the fire immediately with a four-game series in Atlanta against the World Series champion Braves. However, over the course of 162 games, there are reasons for hope. Let’s dive a little into the 2022 Cincinnati Reds.

Cincinnati Reds Lineup

After a historically bad offensive performance in the shortened 2020 season, the Reds bounced back in 2021. Cincinnati was sixth in the MLB with a .249 team batting average last year. They also finished ninth with 786 runs scored and tied for sixth with 222 home runs. There is a lot to replace in the absence of bats like Castellanos, Winker, and Suarez. However, the cupboard isn’t bare.

With the addition of the designated hitter in the National League, the Cincinnati Reds could trot out seven league average or above hitters against right-handed pitching this season. Using wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) only projected starting shortstop Kyle Farmer and centerfielder Nick Senzel have been below the league average since 2019. However, Senzel has been a bright spot in the spring and is simply in need of healthy at-bats. Against left-handed pitching, where guys such as everyday players Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas have struggled a bit more, things aren’t quite as pretty. Once agin, a healthy Senzel could shift that balance.

Most of the offensive optimism lies in young potential starts Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson. India was the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year and Stephenson would have been right there had he received more at-bats. Both players are just 25-years old and among the best young talents in baseball at their respective positions. Now, let’s take a look at the projected Opening Day lineup.

Against Right-Handed Pitching Against Left-Handed Pitching

2nd- Jonathan India 2nd- Jonathan India

DH- Tyler Naquin C- Tyler Stephenson

LF- Tommy Pham 1B- Joey Votto

1B- Joey Votto LF- Tommy Pham

C- Tyler Stephenson SS- Kyle Farmer

3B- Mike Moustakas CF- Nick Senzel

SS- Kyle Farmer DH- Mike Moustakas

CF- Nick Senzel RF- Aristides Aquino

RF- Jake Fraley 3B- Brandon Drury

Starting Pitching

Staff ace Luis Castillo will begin the season on the 10-day Injured List, but the Cincinnati Reds expect to have him back by mid-to-late April. In his absence, 27-year old Tyler Mahle will take the ball in Atlanta to begin the season. First pitch is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN2. Mahle is coming off of an excellent season where he went 13-6 with a 3.75 earned run average. Expectations are high as he enters his sixth Major League season with the Reds.

Following Mahle in the rotation will be left-hander Reiver Sanmartin, right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, and right-handed rookie Hunter Greene. The fifth starter has yet to be announced and will pitch the Reds sixth game, after Mahle gets his second start. A lot of the fanbase’s focus will be on the flame-throwing 22-year old sensation Hunter Greene who will make his Major League debut on Sunday.

An already young rotation of 27, 25, 25, and 22 could get even younger if 24-year old left-handed top prospect Nick Lodolo does in fact get the fifth starter’s spot. However, someone will be relegated to the bullpen once Castillo returns. The youth movement in the starting rotation, especially with a legitimate top of the rotation arm in Mahle and a potential star in Greene, is another reason for optimism around the Cincinnati Reds clubhouse.

Bullpen

RHP: Luis Cessa, Tony Santillan, Art Warren, Hunter Strickland, Jeff Hoffman, Buck Farmer, Dauri Moreta, Ryan Hendrix, Daniel Duarte, Alexis Diaz

LHP: Justin Wilson

Two of the best relievers in the Cincinnati Reds system, Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, will both begin the season on the Injured List. Sims should be back soon as he is just on the 10-day list. However, Antone begins the year on the 60-day IL and has been plagued by injuries while in Cincinnati.

The strength, or reason for optimism, of this unit essentially lies in the unknown. While ineffective as a starter last season, Hoffman settled into his role as a solid bullpen arm. Outside of him, Tony Santillan logged the most innings of the returning arms. There is a nice mix of veteran experience and young talent to piece together innings behind the staring rotation. David Bell will likely only carry 10 bullpen arms for the majority of the season, but the extra depth helps early on in the year. If young guys like Dauri Moreta and Daniel Duarte can stick this could be an improved group in 2022.

Cincinnati Reds Outlook

The Reds have put together back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since 2012-2013. Before that, you have to go all the way back to 1987-1988. On one hand, that probably should be commended and provides some context for a frustrated fan base. However, there is next to nothing to show for the “run” of “success.” The 2020 team got hot at the right time in a 60-game season but were completely embarrassed by the Atlanta Braves in a two-game playoff series. In 2021, the Reds finished 12 games behind the first place Brewers and seven back of the Cardinals without ever fully being in the playoff race down the stretch.

Now, despite two winning seasons, the roster was stripped of some of the most talented players. Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker cornered one of the best offensive outfields in all of baseball. Eugenio Suarez, for all of his strikeouts, still hit 31 home runs and totaled 79 RBI last season. A lot of pressure is being put on Joey Votto, who will turn 39 this season, and new faces such as Tommy Pham to have great seasons. Additionally, Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel must stay off the injured list or this lineup could have major holes in a hurry.

In the end, the talent is there but there is a thin line between a 70-win season and another 81+ win season. If Jonathan India and/or Tyler Stephenson approach an All-Star level the Reds will a chance. Getting some consistent games without injury from Moustakas, Senzel, and the bullpen will give the Reds a chance. Also, Castillo and Mahle performing like a top of the league 1-2 punch would make the Cincinnati Reds a contender. Now, that is a lot of what-ifs. That is the life of a team in the position of this ball club. The city of Cincinnati deserves a competitive team, but only time will tell if this Redlegs group can deliver.