KSR's 2023 NCAA Tournament West Region Preview

March Madness has arrived and KSR will be digging into every region before the party gets started in Dayton on Tuesday. We’ve already covered what to expect in the East Region, where Kentucky has entered as a No. 6 seed with a first-round matchup against Providence and former Wildcat Bryce Hopkins. You can check that out here. KSR has also previewed the South Region, which you can read here.

Next up, we’re diving into the West Region, which is loaded at the top with teams Kentucky faced (and lost to) throughout the season.

The Bracket

The Schedule

Wednesday, March 15

9:10 PM | truTV | No. 11 Arizona State (-2.5) vs. No. 11 Nevada

Thursday, March 16

2:00 PM | TBS | No. 1 Kansas (-22.5) vs. No. 16 Howard
4:30 PM | TBS | No. 8 Arkansas (-2.5) vs. No. 9 Illinois
7:35 PM | truTV | No. 7 Northwestern (+1.5) vs. No. 10 Boise State
10:05 PM | truTV | No. 2 UCLA (-18) vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville

Friday, March 17

2:00 PM | TBS | No. 5 Saint Mary’s (-4) vs. No. 12 VCU
4:30 PM | TBS | No. 4 UConn (-9.5) vs. No. 13 Iona
7:35 PM | truTV | No. 3 Gonzaga (-16.5) vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon
10:05 PM | truTV | No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State/Nevada winner

Efficiency Rankings

Using the pre-tournament numbers at KenPom, here is how the region ranks overall via adjusted efficiency.

2. UCLA (No. 25 offense, No. 1 defense)
4. UConn (No. 6 offense, No. 18 defense)
8. Gonzaga (No. 1 offense, No. 76 defense)
9. Kansas (No. 27 offense, No. 7 defense)
11. Saint Mary’s (No. 40 offense, No. 9 defense)
20. Arkansas (No. 51 offense, No. 16 defense)
27. TCU (No. 52 offense, No. 20 defense)
31. Boise State (No. 78 offense, No. 14 defense)
33. Illinois (No. 58 offense, No. 32 defense)
42. Northwestern (No. 109 offense, No. 13 defense)
43. Nevada (No. 61 offense, No. 42 defense)
58. VCU (No. 140 offense, No. 17 defense)
68. Arizona State (No. 133 offense, No. 28 defense)
74. Iona (No. 79 offense, No. 67 defense)
109. Grand Canyon (No. 54 offense, No. 198 defense)
146. UNC Asheville (No. 195 offense, No. 115 defense)
215. Howard (No. 204 offense, No. 212 defense)

The Favorite

Kansas is the top overall seed in this bracket but actually ranks fourth among the 16 teams, per KenPom. UCLA (No. 2), UConn (No. 4), and Gonzaga (No. 8) all rank higher than Kansas at No. 9. Regardless, the Jayhawks earned a one-seed for good reason, with Kentucky fans experiencing that reason first-hand back on Jan. 28.

After coming off his second national championship almost one year ago, Bill Self’s dominance in the Big 12 continued this season. Outside of a rough stretch in the middle of the season that saw Kansas drop four out of six games, the Jayhawks have been rolling. They did lose to Texas twice in March — once to close out the regular season then again in the Big 12 championship on Saturday — but another matchup against the Longhorns couldn’t happen until the Final Four.

Kansas opened with the second-best odds to win the national title (+1200) and is now tied for the second-best odds (+800). Self’s group has the most Quad 1 wins of any program in the country with 17 while the next-highest is actually Texas with 14. Additionally, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State — all Big 12 teams — rank among the top seven teams in the country in terms of the most Quad 1 wins. All this is to say that Kansas has been extremely battle-tested this season. There won’t be a matchup in this tournament that the Jawhyawks can’t win.

Rick Pitino back in the tourney

For the second time in three seasons as the head coach at Iona, Rick Pitino is back in the Big Dance.

Ole Ricky P and the Gaels will bring the nation’s third-longest win streak into the postseason (14). Iona ran through the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC) Tournament, beating all three opponents by double-digits. Although the Gaels have only taken down one team ranked higher than No. 200 in the KenPom during this winning streak (No. 196 Quinnipiac, 78-72), Iona picked up a 12-seed as one of the highest non-Power 5 programs in the field. Iona’s lone win against a team ranked among the KenPom top 100 came back on Dec. 6 with an 84-62 victory over No. 94 Saint Louis, which did not make the NCAA Tournament.

As usual, there will be a cloud of controversy surrounding Pitino during his postseason run. He’s being rumored as a potential replacement for the head coaching position at St. John’s, which recently parted ways with Mike Anderson after four seasons with the Red Storm. Multiple reports have linked Pitino, who has won MAAC Coach of the Year two years in a row now, as one of the favorites to land the gig, but nothing is expected to happen until Iona’s season is over.

When asked about it on Sunday, Pitino didn’t exactly deny it as a possibility.

📹: MUST WATCH – I asked Rick Pitino about the St. John's opening and if he'd like to stay at #Iona. Take a listen to his answer. #MarchMadness @PIX11News pic.twitter.com/ZOXDCaoRVH

— Justin Walters (@JustinWaltersTV) March 12, 2023

Pitino’s group is powered by three double-digit scorers: sophomore guard Walter Clayton (17.1 PPG; MAAC Player of the Year), junior guard Daniss Jenkins (15.2 PPG; All-MAAC Second Team), and junior forward Nelly Junior Joseph (14.9 PPG; All-MAAC First Team). Clayton is the most dangerous of the bunch, having scored at least 17 points in seven straight games now while shooting over 45 percent from distance throughout the season. Meanwhile, Junior Joseph is a double-double machine with 19 on the season. Freshman guard Cruz Davis, senior forward Berrick JeanLouis (MAAC Co-Defensive Player of the Year), and 7-foot-1 senior center Osborn Shema help fill out the rotation with 20-plus minutes per game

Iona will take on No. 4 UConn in its first-round matchup, which ranks fourth overall in the latest KenPom update. 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan and 6-foot-9 Adama Sanogo will give the Gaels plenty of issues down low. The Huskies will be a near 10-point favorite to move on to the Round of 32. Can Pitino pull off the upset?

Northwestern on upset alert?

Of all the first-round matchups in the West Region, No. 7 Northwestern is the only higher seed not favored to advance. Oddsmakers have No. 10 Boise State as a 1.5-point favorite to make the Round of 32. This is just the second-ever NCAA Tournament appearance for Northwestern and the first since 2017. The Wildcats were projected to finish 12th in the Big Ten all the way back in the preseason but managed to make it to second by year’s end with a 21-11 overall record and a 12-8 mark in conference play.

However, if you’ve followed the tournament closely over the years, programs out of the Big Ten have a history of failing to live up to expectations. Northwestern will also enter the field of 68 losing four of its last five, including a first-round exit out of the Big Ten Tournament after the Wildcats fell in overtime to Penn State.

This is why Boise State, which earned an at-large bid, is being given such good odds despite entering the field three seeds lower. The Broncos are set to play in its second straight NCAA Tournament for just the second time in school history. Boise State went 24-9 on the season, including a 13-5 record in Mountain West play, earning Quad 1 wins over Texas A&M, Utah State, and San Diego State along the way. But Boise State is also entering the NCAA Tournament on a minor losing skid, dropping three of its last five games, including a second-round loss to Utah State in the Moutain West Conference Tournament.

Boise State has been to the NCAA Tournament eight times before this season since 1976 but has never won a game. The Broncos lost to Memphis during the first round in 2022. KenPom gives Boise State a 55 percent chance to win, too, so it’s not just the folks in Vegas thinking of an upset.

Can UCLA or Gonzaga make another Final Four run?

No. 2 UCLA brings the top-ranked defense in KenPom into the tournament while No. 3 Gonzaga brings the top-ranked offense. Both teams are ranked higher than top-seeded Kansas in KenPom’s own rankings. Can the Bruins or Bulldogs execute a Final Four run?

UCLA did lose in the Pac-12 Tournament title game to Arizona but had won 12 straight prior to that, which included a win over the same Arizona squad. As much as Mick Cronin’s 5-foot-7 frame doesn’t resemble anything close to a basketball coach, he has a tendency to heat up in March. The Bruins made it to the Final Four during Cronin’s second season in ’20-21 then back to the Sweet 16 last season. Cronin has his best team yet this year though (which Kentucky fans also experienced first-hand), led by All-American candidate Jaime Jaquez. However, a third straight run to the Sweet 16 for UCLA is going to be complicated by the loss of Jaylen Carter, the team’s best defender, who missed the Pac-12 Tournament due to injury.

As for Gonzaga, Drew Timme, who powers the Bulldogs’ elite offense (another bad experience for Kentucky fans this season) is also an All-American candidate. Gonzaga only lost five games this season and just twice in the West Coast Conference, but considering the recent dominance of head coach Mark Few, five losses are considered somewhat of a down season. Gonzaga hadn’t lost five games in a year since the 2017-18 season when the Bulldogs made it to the Sweet 16. But Few’s squad is also playing its best basketball of the season, riding a nine-game win streak into the NCAA Tournament, including an impressive 77-51 win over Saint Mary’s (a No. 5 seed in the field of 68) in the West Coast Conference championship.

West Region Champion: Kansas

As long as Jalen Wilson is playing, Kansas should be the favorite to make it out of the West Region (and probably the favorite to repeat as national champions). The Big 12 Player of the Year and National Player of the Year candidate is averaging over 20 points per game this season and has scored at least 20 in his last five outings while playing at least 36 minutes in all of them. Kansas goes as far as Wilson takes them.

The Jayhawks have struggled at times to knock down shots from deep during conference play, but they counter that with elite defense and a top-tier starting unit. Freshman Gradey Dick is a projected NBA first-round pick, KJ Adams was named the Big 12’s Most Improved Player, Dajuan Harris brings back experience from last season’s championship run, and Texas Tech transfer Kevin McCullar was one of the biggest offseason pickups.

Don’t be shocked if Self is knocking on the door of a third national championship in a few weeks.