KSR’s 2024 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Preview

NCAA Basketball: Big Ten Conference Tournament Semifinal-Wisconsin vs Purdue — Mar 16, 2024; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey (15) is helped up off the court during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Target Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

The Madness has begun with the First Four tipping off Tuesday and Wednesday evening, followed by the real fun in the Round of 64 on Thursday and Friday. From there, all gas and no brakes to Phoenix with three teams fighting for their lives until just one remains.

Among them? Those in the Midwest Region, headlined by the likes of Purdue, Tennessee, Creighton and Kansas.

The KSR crew is breaking down all four regions ahead of the chaos set to take over your lives for the next month. We’ll take you to that Detroit location in this edition to close things out. Consider it saving the best for last? Eh, not with the Volunteers holding down the field, but it’s a preview.

The Bracket

Midwest Region Schedule

Tuesday

(10) Virginia vs. (10) Colorado State [-2.5] | 9:10, truTV

Wednesday

(16) Montana State [-3.5] vs. (16) Grambling State | 6:40, truTV

Thursday

(3) Creighton [-12.5] vs. (14) Akron | 1:30, TNT
(6) South Carolina [-1.5] vs. (11) Oregon | 4, TNT
(7) Texas vs. (10) Colorado State or Virginia | 6:50, TNT
(5) Gonzaga [-5.5] vs. (12) McNeese | 7:25, TBS
(2) Tennessee [-21.5] vs. (15) Saint Peter’s | 9:20, TNT
(4) Kansas [-7.5] vs. (13) Samford | 9:55, TBS

Friday

(1) Purdue vs. (16) Montana State or Grambling State | 7:25, TBS
(8) Utah State vs. (9) TCU [-4.5] | 9:55, TBS

Sign up for the KSR Newsletter to receive Kentucky Wildcats news in the most ridiculous manner possible.

The Favorite: Purdue

The Boilermakers have the third-best odds to win the whole thing at +700, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they’re betting favorites to win the Midwest. Anchored by reigning National Player of the Year Zach Edey, Purdue hopes to avoid another opening-round upset as a No. 1 seed. Last year’s group was abysmal from three at No. 291 nationally, the key to its Round of 64 loss to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. This time around, they’re shooting a blistering 40.8% from three, good for second nationally behind only Kentucky at 41.2%. They’re also a top-15 scoring, rebounding and effective shooting and free-throw shooting team overall.

But the Boilermakers haven’t been to the Final Four since 1980, the program’s lone national championship. With two opening-round losses in their last three seasons, can Matt Painter get this team to Phoenix?

Odds to win the Midwest Region

Purdue +165
Tennessee +340
Creighton +460
Gonzaga +850
Kansas +1500
Texas +2000
TCU +2500
Oregon +3500
South Carolina +3900
Utah State +4900
Colorado State +6000
McNeese +6500
Samford +8000
Virginia +10000
Akron +17000
Saint Peter’s +25000
Grambling +25000
Montana State +25000

Can Kansas overcome depth issues?

It’s been the ultimate collapse for the Jayhawks entering postseason play, losing four of their last five while dealing with a number of key and untimely injuries. Their roster is held together by duct tape, highlighted by stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr. missing time to close out the regular season and Big 12 Tournament, the latter already ruled out of the entire NCAA Tournament. As for Samford, the Jayhawks’ opening-round opponent, its bench is among the deepest in the entire field of 68 — third-best nationally in terms of minutes produced compared to No. 318 in the same category for Kansas.

It’s hard to imagine Bill Self going one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament, though it did happen once back in 2006, also as a No. 4 seed vs. No. 13 seed Bradley. That was the second consecutive year it had happened, falling in the 3-14 game to Bucknell the postseason before.

If there was ever a time for history to repeat itself, it’s now.

Tennessee fights for first Final Four (but must beat the Peacocks)

Rick Barnes and the Tennessee Volunteers were crowned SEC regular season champions before flaming out early in Nashville. Now, the pressure is on for the program to get the Final Four monkey off its back, Barnes attempting to overcome his reputation as an early-exit specialist in March.

To do so, they’ll have to knock off a familiar foe for Kentucky in Saint Peter’s, a repeat of the 2-15 pairing that sent the Wildcats home in the opening round against the Peacocks in 2022. They were the darling of March Madness under Shaheen Holloway, who has since moved on to Seton Hall. Now, the MAAC winners are led by second-year coach Bashir Mason with sophomore forward Corey Washington the star for this new-look group that finished 19-13 in its run to the league championship.

Get the On3 Top 10 to your inbox every morning

By clicking "Subscribe to Newsletter", I agree to On3's Privacy Notice, Terms, and use of my personal information described therein.

Can the Peacocks do it again?

Midwest Region Upset Special: Will Wade takes out Mark Few

Will Wade is on a revenge tour after earning his NCAA lumps at LSU, taking over at McNeese State and immediately earning NABC District 22 Coach of the Year honors in his first year after leading the Cowboys to a 30-3 record with Southland Conference regular season and tournament championships. It’s the program’s biggest season as a Division I program and it’s not particularly close.

Shahada Wells is the team’s star, averaging 17.8 points, 4.8 assists, 4.5 rebounds and 3.0 steals per contest — a do-it-all threat for the Cowboys. Christian Shumate is also a force on the wing, averaging 11.9 points and 9.5 rebounds per contest. As a team, it’s a top-55 offense and top-85 defense, a group that boasts the No. 8 three-point shooting percentage in college basketball at 38.8%. Four of five starters shoot at least 40 percent from deep.

Beating the likes of VCU, Michigan, UAB and Southern Miss on the year, it’s a well-coached team out for blood. Gonzaga is in danger.

Midwest Region Champion: Creighton

The Bluejays were a controversial call away from making the Final Four a year ago, losing to San Diego State down the stretch in the Elite Eight — a maddening heartbreaker. And after retooling the roster with some intriguing upgrades while retaining standouts Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner and Trey Alexander from that group, Creighton is in position to run it back and get over the hump this time around. Scheierman was named First Team All-Big East after averaging 18.4 points and 9.0 rebounds while Alexander and Kalkbrenner earned Second Team All-Big East selections averaging 17 points apiece, respectively, those three leading the team to its best seed in program history with a No. 3, tied with 2014.

Creighton is averaging 80.5 points per contest while dishing out 17.1 assists per contest, good for No. 17 nationally. The Bluejays launch threes at an elite clip while landing 36.1% of them with as strong of a six-man rotation you’ll find in college basketball. With some question marks elsewhere in the Midwest and the revenge factor playing into the team’s mindset going into March, it’s easy to fall in love with Greg McDermott’s group and its ability to make some noise for a second consecutive year.

Purdue and Tennessee are the betting favorites, but Creighton has a real shot to come out of the region for a trip to Phoenix.