KSR’s NCAA Tournament South Region Preview

ZGeogheganKSR

KSR continues our regional breakdowns of the 2022 NCAA Tournament, this time focusing on the South Region. Arizona is the top overall seed with Villanova, Tennessee, and Illinois rounding out the top four in order. The Volunteers will surely be out to prove they were worth a three-seed, 10-seeded Loyola Chicago will look to make another deep tournament run, and Arizona will sneakily enter as a Final Four favorite.

If you missed out on KSR’s other preview, you can check those out below:

Now let’s dive into the South Region.

The Bracket

The Schedule

All Times EST

Wednesday, March 16

6:40 PM | truTV | Dayton: No. 16 Wright State vs. No. 16 Bryant

Thursday, March 17

12:15 PM | CBS | Indianapolis: No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Michigan (-2.5)
3:17 PM | CBS | Indianapolis: No. 3 Tennessee (-17.5) vs. No. 14 Longwood

Friday, March 18

12:15 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh: No. 7 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Loyola Chicago (-1.5)
2:45 PM | CBS | Pittsburgh: No. 2 Villanova (-15.5) vs. No. 15 Delaware
6:50 PM | TNT | Pittsburgh: No. 4 Illinois (-7.5) vs. No. 13 UT-Chattanooga
7:27 PM | truTV | San Diego: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Wright State/Bryant
9:20 PM | TNT | Pittsburgh: No. 5 Houston (-8.5) vs. No. 12 UAB
9:57 PM | truTV | San Diego: No. 8 Seton Hall (-1.5) vs. No. 9 TCU

South Region Favorite

The top five seeds line up in order as the top five betting favorites to win the South Region, with Arizona the top choice at +110. Despite coming in with an 11-seed, Juwan Howard’s Michigan squad actually has the seventh-best odds at +2500. The oddsmakers don’t expect to see a 12-seed upset a 5-seed either, as UAB has the third-worst odds to win the region.

Arizona
Villanova 4/1
Tennessee 5/1
Illinois 8/1
Houston 8/1
Ohio State 16/1
Michigan 25/1
TCU 30/1
Loyola Chicago 30/1
Colorado State 40/1
Seton Hall 40/1
Chattanooga 60/1
Longwood 100/1
UAB 200/1
Delaware 200/1
Bryant/Wright State 200/1

Can Tennessee prove its worth?

The biggest “snub” of Sunday’s bracket unveiling wasn’t Texas A&M failing to earn a spot, but rather the seeding location of the team that beat them in the SEC Tournament championship. The Tennessee Volunteers produced a season-long resume that was well-deserving of a two-seed, capping it off with the program’s first conference title since 1979 and a second consecutive win over Kentucky in the game before. But for some reason, the Vols came up short, landing as a three-seed. However, this draw might end up working better in their favor.

Tennesse has the third-best odds to come out of the South Region, but you can’t argue that any other team in the bracket is playing a better brand of basketball. The Vols might be the hottest team in the country right now and should be able to keep up the momentum now that star freshman point guard Kennedy Chandler has a few extra days to rest an injured ankle. The Vols will have no issue with Longwood and that should be the case for the winner of Colorado State-Michigan. A trip to the Sweet 16 feels certain, but things could get tricky if that opponent is Villanova up in Pittsburgh.

Regardless, Tennessee is a trendy pick to at least make the Elite 8. Playing its best basketball of the season at the perfect time, it’s tough to go against that possibility.

Potential first round upsets to watch for

This might not be the region to pick your 12-over-5 upset, but there are still a pair of double-digit seeds to keep an eye on: Loyola Chicago and Michigan. The early betting odds would agree, as well.

No. 10 Loyola Chicago (-1.5) vs. No. 7 Ohio State (Friday, 12:15 p.m., CBS)

Starting with the Ramblers of Loyola Chicago, they’re no stranger to pulling off upsets. Former head coach Porter Moser, who is now the head coach at Oklahoma, took Loyola Chicago to three postseason appearances over the last four years, including a trip to the Final Four in 2018 and a Sweet 16 berth in 2021. Now led by rookie head coach Drew Valentine, the Sister Jean Magic (she is now 102 years old, by the way) hasn’t gone anywhere. Matching up against an 11-loss Ohio State team feels like an upset in the works. 6-foot-4 fifth-year senior guard Lucas Williamson is the one to watch for Loyola Chicago after averaging a team-high 14.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists on 45.3 percent overall shooting and a 39.6 percent from beyond the arc this season.

No. 11 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 6 Colorado State (Thursday, 12:15 p.m., CBS)

Moving over to Michigan, it’s true that the Wolverines didn’t exactly produce a stellar season. But that being said, Coach Howard’s group has played against far superior competition this season compared to Colorado State. Michigan is 2-7 against the top 25 this year while the Rams didn’t play a single ranked opponent. Plus, the Wolverines have Hunter Dickinson at center while Colorado State is without an impact big man. I wouldn’t predict Michigan to make the Sweet 16, but a Round of 32 berth feels like a real possibility. Since 2010, 11-seeds hold a record of 23-21 against 6-seeds.

Kofi Cockburn watch

If you want to see what Kentucky passed on in favor of leaning on National Player of the Year frontrunner Oscar Tshiebwe, then you’ll want to tune into Illinois-Chattanooga as the 3 vs. 14 matchup. Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn is the only player in the country to average 20 points and 10 rebounds (which is cute) and he helps Illinois produce a top 25 Divison I offense.

However, Illinois didn’t finish the season on a high note. The Fighting Illini closed the regular season 5-3 before bowing out in their first-round game of the Big Ten Tournament to Indiana by a final score of 65-63. Cockburn has been terrific in most of those games, but the supporting cast has struggled with consistency lately. I will still expect Illinois to beat Chattanooga by 15-plus, and a potential second-round matchup against 5-seed Houston feels favorable considering the Cougars’ own late-season struggles, so don’t be too surprised if they sneak out both games while Cockburn pops off.

Either way, it’ll be fun to compare the games between Cockburn and Tshiebwe. Kentucky clearly made the right choice, but you can’t help but think of what would have been had Cockburn came to Lexington, too — for good and bad reasons.

South Region Prediction: Arizona

Tennessee will surely have its chance to make a deep run and Jay Wright always seems to have his Villanova teams ready for tournament time, but Arizona is the odds-on favorite for a reason. The Wildcats outscored opponents by nearly 17 points per game this season and went 5-2 against the Top 25, including wins over South Region participants Michigan and Illinois. However, the Vols do hold a head-to-head win over Arizona from early in the year that is tough to ignore. But on the flip side, Villanova beat Tennessee by 18 in the Vols’ third game of the season.

It’s a bit of a toss-up in some regards, but if starting point guard Kerr Kriisa can overcome this gnarly lower leg injury, it feels safe to call the Wildcats the South Region favorites.