KSR's Roundtable Predictions/Props for Kentucky vs. Kansas State

It’s the last day of the best weekend in sports, and Kentucky Basketball is still dancing, heading into Sunday’s slate of games. At 2:40 p.m., the Wildcats play Kansas State with a spot in the East Regional’s Sweet 16 on the line. The other Wildcats–the Kansas State ones–have a very slight edge in KenPom’s forecast. KenPom predicts a 74-73 finish with a 51 percent lean toward Kansas State. However, Kentucky is the betting favorite with a 3.5-point spread.

Here at KSR, we have predictions too. They’re not as analytical, but we know things.

Go Cats.

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Kentucky vs. Kansas State | KSProp Sheet

Score Prediction:
Game MVP:
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts:
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts:
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts:
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts:
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts:
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts:
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs:
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs:
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs:
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast:
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers:
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min:
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts:
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts:
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts:
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included):

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Drew Franklin

I’m worried, Big Blue Nation. Kansas State is good and Kansas State is going to score. But I don’t know what Kansas State intends to do about Oscar Tshiebwe. Ultimately, I think it is Tshiebwe who is this difference-maker, as he has been so many times before in the past. We get one more superhuman effort from the two-time All-American to propel the Wildcats to the next weekend, then we’ll worry about what happens there when it’s time. For now, the good Wildcats win a very close one over the bad Wildcats, thanks to the big fella.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 72, Kansas State 71
Game MVP: Oscar Tshiebwe
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Under
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Under
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Markquis Nowell O/U 17.5 pts: Under
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 reb: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Under
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 reb: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Under
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Under
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Over
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Under
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): No

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Tyler Thompson

For Kentucky, the objective is clear: limit Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. The two account for half of Kansas State’s points. Jacob Toppin won the matchup with Bryce Hopkins on Friday; will he rise to the occasion again today vs. Johnson? Cason Wallace still doesn’t seem 100%. Nowell is small and fast. Wallace needs to use his size to stay in front of him. The purple Wildcats haven’t faced anything like Oscar Tshiebwe this season. I think Oscar will be the difference today. Slow down Johnson and Nowell, own the inside, and avoid the scoring droughts we saw in the second half vs. Providence and the Cats will dance into the Sweet 16.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 70, Kansas State 68
Game MVP: Oscar Tshiebwe
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Under
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Under
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Over
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts: Under
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs: Under
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Over
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Under
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Over
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Under
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): Yes

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Zack Geoghegan

This is where I had Kentucky bowing out in my bracket. Kansas State is a much better team on both sides of the floor than Providence. Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell will be tough and unique matchups. Kansas State isn’t uber-tall, but they’re loaded with athletic forwards in the 6-foot-7 to 6-foot-10 range. The bad guy Wildcats rank top 50 in the country in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. They can do everything well. Nowell is Tyler Ulis-lite. Unless Cason Wallace can step up and have a monster game, this could be the end of the road for Kentucky.

Score Prediction: Kansas State 81, Kentucky 75
Game MVP: Keyontae Johnson
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Under
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts: Over
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs: Under
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Under
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Under
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Over
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Under
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Over
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): No

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Jack Pilgrim

Kansas State is a stout defensive team led by Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, two do-it-all stars in the Big 12. The former is strong and physical, latter is quick and shifty with the ultimate green light, taking nearly seven 3-pointers per contest. Tough matchup with those two — but Kentucky has its own difficult covers, as well. Oscar Tshiebwe is a mismatch nightmare for K-State specifically, Jacob Toppin is playing the best basketball of his career and Antonio Reeves has been a human flamethrower as of late. Get any of Cason Wallace, Chris Livingston or CJ Fredrick to break through — just one — and it’s likely too much for Jerome Tang’s bunch to overcome.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 68, Kansas State 64
Game MVP: Oscar Tshiebwe
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Under
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Under
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Over
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts Over
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Under
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs: Under
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Over
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Over
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Over
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Over
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): Yes — they adjusted them again late last night before I left the arena (seriously)

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Nick Roush

If you’re scared, go to church. This Sunday, we’re preaching the Gospel of Kentucky basketball. The Cats kicked off the early jitters. Now they’re coming for the throne. There’s no tepid optimism here. Antonio Reeves is getting hot at the right time and Oscar Tshiebwe’s motor is running overtime. The key is finishing near the rim, particularly for Jacob Toppin and Chris Livingston. If they’re efficient offensively, particularly Toppin, this will be a fun one.

Kentucky vs. Kansas State | KSProp Sheet

Score Prediction: Kentucky 90, Kansas State 0
Game MVP: The Flamethrower
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Under
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Under
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Over
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts Over
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Over
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Over
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Under
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Over
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): Nada

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Adam Luckett

Kentucky is in the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. John Calipari’s team will be wearing road jerseys in this round for the first time since 2014. That end result will be the same. Kansas State fits the team profile (defense-heavy) that Kentucky has performed well against this season. The Big Blue is headed to the winner’s circle and Madison Square Garden next weekend. Oscar Tshiebwe makes a run at a 20-20 game in Greensboro.

Score Prediction: Kentucky 76, Kansas State 68
Game MVP: Oscar Tshiebwe
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 16.5 pts: Over
Antonio Reeves O/U 15.5 pts: Under
Jacob Toppin O/U 14.5 pts: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 11.5 pts: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 6.5 pts: Over
Markquis Nowell O/U 7.5 pts: Over
Keyontae Johnson O/U 16.5 pts: Under
Oscar Tshiebwe O/U 14.5 rebs: Over
Jacob Toppin O/U 6.5 rebs: Over
Chris Livingston O/U 5.5 rebs: Over
Cason Wallace O/U 4.5 ast: Under
CJ Fredrick O/U 0.5 3-pointers: Over
Sahvir Wheeler O/U 0.5 min: Under
Kentucky O/U 3.5 bench pts: Over
Kentucky’s largest lead O/U 10.5 pts: Over
Kansas State’s largest lead O/U 6.5 pts: Under
Will the rims be checked at any point (warm-ups included): No