KSR's takeaways from Kentucky's brutal loss to Vanderbilt on Senior Night

“We’re focused on Kentucky, going into a tough environment against a team that’s playing well. But I’m confident in my group that we can go in there and get another one.”

Vanderbilt head coach Jerry Stackhouse called his shot following his team’s win vs. Florida on Saturday. The Commodores had won six of their last seven games and were playing as well as anyone in the SEC at that point, neck-and-neck with Kentucky. No, they hadn’t beaten the Wildcats in 14 consecutive matchups, eight for Stackhouse in particular. Yes, John Calipari was 25-4 against Vanderbilt with zero losses inside Rupp Arena during his time in Lexington.

And despite coming in as a 10-point underdog, along with losing his team’s best player four minutes into the game — star big man Liam Robbins had averaged 22 points and 10 rebounds per game his previous seven outings — Stackhouse ended up being right.

With Kentucky up two with 1:10 to go in the matchup — that was after Vanderbilt led by as many as 11 in the second half — Jordan Wright drove in for a right-side layup to tie it up at 66-66 with just 42 seconds to go. And then following a miss from Antonio Reeves on the mid-range pull-up, Wright spun in the lane for a fadeaway jumper on the other end with just 2.6 seconds to go, nothing but net.

Reeves got a clean 3-point look from the right wing off at the buzzer, but like the entire team all night, the shot just couldn’t fall. And instead of clinching the No. 3 seed in the SEC Tournament with a win and continuing to build momentum, the Wildcats’ four-game run of victories came to a close and their resume added a Quad 3 loss at home. A win at Arkansas on Saturday secures the No. 3, but a loss potentially drops UK to a No. 5 for a Thursday start in Nashville.

And it all might have to happen with Kentucky severely (Sahvir-ly?) shorthanded.

Cason Wallace goes down with an ankle injury

Postseason resume and scenarios aside, nothing is more important for the Wildcats than freshman star Cason Wallace‘s status moving forward. The 6-foot-4 guard went down with an ankle injury with 18:14 to go in the game and was later ruled out. It was a worst-case scenario for the team, giving UK a grand total of zero true point guards available to close out the game — Sahvir Wheeler underwent surgery on his tailbone Wednesday morning, keeping him out another two to three weeks.

The good news? Wallace’s X-rays came back clean, Calipari confirmed, adding that a return this weekend is possible.

“First of all, Cason, they X-rayed, he’s fine. It’s not swelled. We’ll see. I’m hoping he’ll be okay for Saturday but I don’t know. And if not, we’ve got to figure out how we do it against pressure.”

The bad news? We saw the chaotic mess this team is without a lead guard, with Reeves, CJ Fredrick and Adou Thiero splitting time at the one — hell, even Jacob Toppin brought the ball up the floor on occasion. Reckless turnovers, bad shots, defensive slip-ups, the whole nine yards. The wheels very quickly fell off, with a 10-2 run putting the Commodores up 11 in three minutes.

To their credit, the Wildcats fought back, responding with a 12-3 run of their own to cut it to just two with 13:27 to go.

Oscar Tshiebwe tries to save the day

The key reason Kentucky had a chance? Surprise, Oscar Tshiebwe, who again willed the Wildcats down the stretch and nearly won the game by himself. Finishing with 21 points and 20 rebounds overall, the senior superstar had 16 and 11 in the second half alone, including 10 made free throws on 14 attempts down the stretch.

And to be honest, his 10 shot attempts (five makes) and 15 free throws (11 makes) simply weren’t enough given the circumstances. With Robbins out for Vanderbilt and manbunned big Quentin Millora-Brown struggling with foul trouble in the second half, Stackhouse threw a five-guard lineup out there for an extended period in hopes of capitalizing on Kentucky’s lack of depth and backcourt struggles. With Doug Shows and company falling in love with touch fouls, it was the perfect opportunity to let Tshiebwe feast — remember his second-half efforts vs. Yale and Georgia at home?

The 6-foot-9, 265-pound center was unguardable with the ball in his hands, scoring or drawing fouls for free throws on every touch. Five shot attempts and 14 free throws (seven fouls) equates to 12 second-half touches, 20 shots for his teammates, including 11 from Reeves alone. Seven of Kentucky’s final 10 points were scored by Tshiebwe, but the go-ahead look to take the lead in the final seconds was a contested 15-foot pull-up jumper from the Illinois State transfer with 12 left on the shot clock? At least let the big fella sink or save you — he had the hot hand at that point.

But again, Kentucky was playing without a point guard. Reeves did his best to facilitate and take care of the ball while also continuing to be the bucket-getter he is. That’s a tough ask, and it showed in the box score (4-17 FG, 1-8 3PT, 3 TO), just as it did with Fredrick (2-7 FG, 1-4 3PT). Frankly, things could have gotten a whole heck of a lot worse to close things out.

But the Wildcats were also in position to pull out the win. And considering how things were going to get to that point, hard to argue that Tshiebwe wouldn’t have been the better option.

Mid-range kills the Cats

It’s one thing to not be able to buy a basket from deep, something every team deals with from time to time. That happened with Kentucky — one of the most efficient 3-point shooting teams in the SEC at 36.8% — against Vanderbilt, going just 3-19 (15.8%) in the loss.

But how about shooting 30 mid-range jumpers while making just seven? The volume was by design.

“We wanted the mid-range shots, yes, because that’s how they (Vanderbilt) play and it’s one of the things we do so well,” Calipari said. “We missed a bunch of ’em today, just missed a bunch. That’s a shot we make. As a matter of fact, we play to get those too.”

A combined 49 mid-range and 3-point jumpers in a game the Wildcats took 59 total shots. Meanwhile, the Commodores took just eight mid-range shots and 24 3-pointers. They may not have taken 35 free throws like Kentucky got (10-13), but they won the efficiency battle with better shot quality.

And the Wildcats played to get those looks — on a night Tshiebwe was a living, breathing mismatch inside, no less.

A middle-eight failure

“The last minute of the half you could tell I went crazy,” Calipari said after the loss. “Again, because I’ve done this for 40 years and I know how momentum shifts because of lack of concentration, lack of execution. All of a sudden we go from up to down four. ‘What? What just happened?’ And if you look at those plays, we’ll show our team, that shifted everything.”

The final TV timeout of the first half to the first TV timeout of the second is a crucial stretch of every basketball game — arguably the most crucial. It builds or kills confidence going into halftime and sets the tone the rest of the way after the break. It’s where games are flipped or solidified. And unfortunately for the Wildcats, it was the team’s worst stretch of the entire matchup.

Kentucky led 26-21 with four minutes to go, followed by a 13-4 run for Vanderbilt to go up 34-30 at the half. And then to open the second, a 12-5 run to put the Commodores up 11 with 15:12 to go in the game.

The majority of that time was with Wallace still in the lineup and Robbins out. Rather than extending the lead to double figures before half and crushing Vanderbilt’s confidence without its best player, Kentucky allowed the opposition to not only hang around, but flip the momentum completely. It was a stretch that forced the Wildcats to play from behind and mount a comeback, one they couldn’t quite close out.

A historic Senior Night loss

Kentucky’s loss in the final home game of the season marked a not-so-great historical feat: the Wildcats are now 1-3 on Senior Night since 2020 after suffering just three total losses for the celebratory event between 1965-2019 — a 52-3 record in that 55-year stretch.

Loss vs. Tennessee in 2020, loss vs. Florida in 2021, win vs. Ole Miss in 2022 and a loss vs. Vanderbilt in 2023.

(Note: Kentucky beat South Carolina in the Rupp Arena finale to close out the 2020-21 season, a makeup game due to COVID-19 issues earlier in conference play. Senior Day took place the Saturday before, where Olivier Sarr, Davion Mintz and Riley Welch were all honored prior to the team’s 71-67 loss to Florida.)

In general, Vanderbilt hadn’t won a game inside Rupp Arena since Jan. 20, 2007. Tonight, that streak came to a disappointing end on a night Tshiebwe, Jacob Toppin, CJ Fredrick, Antonio Reeves, Sahvir Wheeler and Brennan Canada were all honored prior to tip-off, the most ever for a John Calipari-coached team at Kentucky.

“I wanted to leave ’em with a win,” Calipari said after the upset, “so I’m disappointed for them.”

Seeding scenarios for the SEC Tournament

What does the loss mean big-picture? Well, it’s complicated. As mentioned earlier, a win in Fayetteville secures the No. 3 seed in Nashville and all is right in the world — especially because that likely means Cason Wallace is back and the team found is groove again against a Quad 1 opponent.

If not, the Wildcats could be a No. 3, No. 4 or No. 5 seed. If Missouri loses to Ole Miss and Tennessee loses to Auburn this weekend, Kentucky is the No. 3. Missouri beats Ole Miss, but Tennessee loses to Auburn, Kentucky is the No. 4. The Wildcats can also secure the No. 4 if Missouri loses to Ole Miss, but Tennessee beats Auburn.

And then there’s worst-case scenario: Missouri beats Ole Miss and Tennessee beats Auburn. That would give Kentucky the No. 5, resulting in a Thursday start down in Nashville.

None of it matters with a win at Arkansas, a team coming off back-to-back losses at Alabama and Tennessee. The Razorbacks will be desperate, but so will the Wildcats.