KSR's takeaways from Kentucky's embarrassing loss to Saint Peter's
Kentucky has followed up its worst season in program history with its worst NCAA Tournament loss in program history. For just the tenth time in history, a No. 15 seed has defeated a No. 2 seed, with the Wildcats falling to the Saint Peter’s Peacocks in overtime by a final score of 85-79.
History was made for all of the wrong reasons. Kentucky couldn’t defend, couldn’t make a shot and couldn’t control the basketball. It was 45 minutes of inexcusable play, resulting in a season-ending loss to a team that entered the NCAA Tournament with a 19-11 record out of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.
How did we get to this point? And what comes next for Kentucky as the book slams shut on a what-could-have-been season?
Defensive struggles kill Kentucky’s season
The Wildcats have played with fire on the defensive end of the floor for a few months now. A pattern of missed assignments and uncharacteristic miscues quickly became habit to close out the season, building leads and letting off the gas late, creating avoidable and uncomfortable end-of-game situations.
In the team’s final eight games of the regular season and SEC Tournament, Kentucky won by no more than 11 points. It won by over 11 points just once — a 78-57 home win over Florida on February 12 — following the 18-point beatdown at Kansas on January 29. Plenty of opportunities to push the lead and make a statement, zero execution. Potential 15- to 20-point wins turned into single-digit grind-it-out victories thanks to stall ball and minimal defensive effort. Players previously considered standout defenders slowly transitioned into liabilities on that end of the floor.
Playing with fire finally got Kentucky burned in Indianapolis, putting together the worst defensive performance of the year against Saint Peter’s — and it’s not close.
The Peacocks entered the day ranked No. 260 in offensive efficiency, No. 274 in effective field goal percentage, No. 317 in two-point field goal percentage and No. 319 in turnover percentage. How does Kentucky respond? By allowing Saint Peter’s to shoot 50.9 percent from the field and 52.9 percent from three, scoring 85 points on the night.
For those keeping track at home — that would be all of us — the Peacocks hadn’t scored 85 points in a game since December 12, an 87-48 win over Nyack. That was the only time all season Saint Peter’s hit that mark, yet somehow Kentucky allowed it in a win-or-go-home NCAA Tournament game. How?
Backdoor screens, lapses in the pick-and-roll, wide-open jumpers and direct line drives to the basket. Effort was a glaring issue once again, but how long can effort be the culprit? At some point it’s fair to acknowledge Kentucky’s defense was fundamentally broken by year’s end.
No feel-good story for the guards
Coming off an abysmal offensive showing in Tampa in which Kentucky shot just 34.4 percent from the field and 10 percent from three in the SEC Tournament semifinals against Tennessee, priority number one was getting the Wildcats’ guard situation fixed. Kellan Grady had lost all confidence in his shot, knocking down just five of his last 22 attempts from three in his last six games. Davion Mintz had hit just six of his last 23 attempts in that same span. TyTy Washington and Sahvir Wheeler? A combined 47-117 from the field (40 percent) since coming back at Arkansas, an average of 23.4 shot attempts per game. High volume, low efficiency.
Kentucky was desperate for improved guard play, with John Calipari adjusting on the fly with new tweaks — at least that was the narrative pushed following the SEC Tournament. The team’s next time out? A combined 10-34 for Wheeler (4-8), Washington (2-10), Grady (1-9) and Mintz (3-7) in a do-or-die game. Same old song and dance for a guard unit that has sputtered down the stretch.
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For Grady in particular, this was a game many circled as a potential breakthrough opportunity against lesser competition. With his confidence waning in recent weeks, the chance to knock down a handful of threes to get his feet back underneath him was staring him right in the face. Instead, he continued to pass up open shots, taking away one of Kentucky’s biggest strengths for much of the season. Rather than clean catch-and-shoot looks, he opted for side-steps to his right or left, allowing time for defenders to recover. More often than not in those scenarios, the offense is forced to reset, with the resulting shot almost always being worse than an open look from Grady. It was a back-breaker for this offense.
The fact of the matter is that the injuries suffered by Washington and Wheeler ultimately broke the offense and the Wildcats were unable to recover. UK got by with Grady and Mintz running point guard in their absence, allowing the starting backcourt duo to get healthy. At the time, it felt like a win-win scenario that would pay off in a major way come tournament time. Instead, Grady and Mintz went cold and struggled with their roles down the stretch. Washington and Wheeler returned to full strength, but never looked like their old selves at any point. A unit that was absolutely lethal in January ultimately wound up being the team’s biggest weak spot.
The feel-good moment for Kentucky’s backcourt never came, with postseason play ending before it ever really even started.
Oscar Tshiebwe saves Kentucky from a blowout loss
An 85-79 overtime loss to Saint Peter’s is embarrassing enough as is. Now imagine that performance without Oscar Tshiebwe, who finished with a team-high 30 points on 11-16 shooting and 8-12 from the line to go with 16 rebounds, two assists, two blocks and two steals.
Tshiebwe was Kentucky’s only offensive threat in the game, regularly saving the Wildcats with clean-up opportunities and made jump shots. He was a force inside, with Saint Peter’s (unsurprisingly) having no answers for the 6-foot-9, 265-pound center. It was a performance that again proved why he is a lock to win consensus National Player of the Year honors.
Without him, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to think that Kentucky could have lost this game by 15-plus points. It was an all-systems failure for the Wildcats outside of Tshiebwe, with only one other player finishing in double figures (Wheeler, 11 points).
No decision has been made on his future, but if it was Tshiebwe’s last game at Kentucky, he went out with a monstrous 30-point, 16-rebound effort. Unfortunately for him, he didn’t get much help elsewhere, specifically on offense.
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