KSR's Takeaways: Kentucky's postseason hopes torpedo in Athens

It was a must-win matchup for Kentucky in Athens, backs against the wall regarding NCAA Tournament seeding. Facing off against a struggling Georgia team that had lost six of its last seven, the Wildcats simply couldn’t afford another loss on the resume, an underwhelming one as is. With eight losses overall — one being a Quad 4 – and just one Quad 1 win, the margin for error was inarguably razor-thin.

And yet, here we are. Backs against the wall, Kentucky took the punches and sank to the floor — like its current postseason dreams — losing to the Bulldogs by a final score of 75-68. Continued defensive miscues and assignment mix-ups, missed shots and turnovers, lack of fight. Same old song and dance for this group, just a new venue in Stegeman Coliseum.

Mind you, this is the same UGA team that entered the matchup ranked No. 129 in the NET with zero Quad 1 wins and three Quad 3 losses, a mediocre group by every surface-level stat, advanced analytic and, well, the naked eye. Objectively, it’s just not an overly talented group who had been playing bad basketball as of late — the Bulldogs’ lone win between January 14 and today was a three-point overtime nail-biter at home vs. South Carolina, the worst team in the SEC.

And yet, again, here we are.

We’ll start with the numbers. 38.5% shooting for the Wildcats overall (25-65), 35% from three (7-20) and 84.6% from the line (11-13). 40.7% overall for the Bulldogs (22-54), 31.6% from three (6-19) and, the big one, 86.2% at the line (25-29). UK won the battle of the glass 38-37 overall and 14-9 offensively for 18 second-chance points, but UGA earned more points in the paint (32-26), on fast breaks (10-3) and off the bench (21-2) while also turning the ball over just seven times.

How did it all happen? And what does it all mean? (I think we all know what it means, but we have to talk about it anyway.)

Injuries, foul trouble put Cats behind from the start

Kentucky came in at a disadvantage from an availability standpoint, down two starters due to injury. CJ Fredrick is out indefinitely with a cracked rib, suffered on a hard fall in the team’s win vs. Florida a week ago. He tried playing through it vs. Arkansas, but needs time to heal. Elsewhere, Sahvir Wheeler rolled his ankle to start the week and missed the mid-week loss to the Razorbacks. He was also unable to give it a go in Athens.

That left Cason Wallace as the team’s primary point guard and Adou Thiero off the bench, with Antonio Reeves initiating the offense when necessary. Then came two early fouls from Wallace in the first 3:25. Thiero was quickly thrust into the lineup, forced to play 15 minutes in the opening half — he’s hit that mark in a game just twice all season. Then Thiero picked up two fouls, as did Daimion Collins.

The first half went about how you’d expect, with the Wildcats going into the break down ten, shooting just 35.5% from the field (11-31) while allowing the Bulldogs — a team scoring just 69.9 points per game on the year — 42 points in the first 20 minutes. That’s the same total Kentucky allowed in the first half vs. Georgia in Lexington back on Jan. 17.

A second-half turnaround (and collapse)

In that previous matchup, Kentucky clawed back to retake the lead less than three minutes into the second half before coasting to the final buzzer, turning an eight-point deficit into a 14-point win.

It was the same sluggish start for the Wildcats to open the game with nearly identical opening halves. It was also the same comeback effort we saw in the first matchup, with Kentucky opening the second on a 15-5 run to tie it up with 13:51 to go before taking a four-point lead at the 11:54 mark.

Georgia rolled over and died in the meeting inside Rupp Arena, Oscar Tshiebwe — 23 points and 15 rebounds in the second half, 37 and 24 overall — being the killer. The Bulldogs threw haymakers right back in this one, holding the Wildcats to just six points down to the 1:21 mark while retaking the lead and pushing it back to as many as 10.

Kentucky scored eight points in the final minute, but the comeback effort was too little, too late.

There’s plenty to nitpick about the loss and what went wrong, but there was no greater indicator of where things stand for the Wildcats than the sequence following the final TV timeout. Down three with 3:35 to go, Kentucky had a chance to draw up a play to potentially tie the game and flip momentum for one final run. The result? An airballed step-back 3-pointer from Chris Livingston at the top of the key to force a shot clock violation.

Georgia brings it up the floor and finds Jabri Abdur-Rahim for an open left-corner three. Nothing but net, six-point lead with 2:57 remaining, crowd goes crazy. Ball game.

And that was the story of the afternoon — and the season, really — with the opposition coming up big when the Wildcats could not.

Antonio Reeves can’t stay hot, Cason Wallace no-shows

As Kentucky found itself struggling to find any semblance of an offense in the opening half, Reeves came up big, scoring 15 of the team’s 32 points before the break. He hit the Wildcats’ first bucket at the 16:11 mark (yuck), then the second with 11:35 remaining (double yuck), both threes. Then came two more makes from deep, back-to-back at the 10:38 and 10:02 marks, followed by a layup with 7:37 to go to give him five of the team’s first six buckets. He then added one more jumper (4:47) for good measure.

6-11 shooting overall, 3-4 on threes for the senior guard in the first half. Elsewhere? 5-20 between six different Wildcats with the team down 10 at the break. And where would things have been had Reeves not caught fire?

We found out in the second half, as the senior guard would score just five points on 2-10 shooting and 1-4 from three in another 20 minutes — he played all 40, a total John Calipari said was far too much after the game.

Tshiebwe did his best to save the day with 14 points (5-7 FG, 4-4 FT) and nine rebounds in the second half, but when the team was in position to throw a dagger, Reeves couldn’t convert. His legs were gone and the shots simply didn’t fall.

And he shouldn’t be asked to score every point and win the game by himself. Same can be said about Tshiebwe — even if he’s capable of doing so, as he proved vs. Georgia the first time around.

Someone else needed to step up and make shots, and it’s fair to look at the team’s other top contributors and expect more. Cason Wallace had zero points on 0-6 shooting through 39 minutes of the game, scoring both of his buckets in the final minute with the game out of reach. Foul trouble kept him out early and he added six assists, but Kentucky’s third-leading scorer has to give you something, especially with Wheeler and Fredrick out.

Troubling bench energy, fight

A major point of emphasis was made on team chemistry and camaraderie midway through the season, hoping to create a sense of cohesion with the group that visibly wasn’t there. They didn’t talk much on the floor, didn’t celebrate one another on big plays or bring energy from the bench. It just felt like everyone was going through the motions, clocking in and clocking out. It was addressed and things improved.

Not-so-coincidentally, the victories started piling up, with the Wildcats winning six straight in SEC play. There was a clear breakthrough.

Now, another speed bump, as energy was noticeably low in both games (losses) this week. With the team desperate for momentum in the first half, it didn’t come internally. The players didn’t respond to the fight, or even look to throw the first punch, despite acknowledging the Bulldogs would be looking to do so just one day ago considering how things went in the first matchup.

In terms of pure talent, Georgia doesn’t have the Jimmys and Joes to match up with Kentucky. UGA does, though, have the toughness and physicality to compete. They defend hard and look to initiate contact offensively, as made clear by the 25-29 finish at the line. No superstars, but plenty of dudes willing to fight with their backs against the wall. Coming in losing six of their last seven, the Bulldogs played with desperation. They clearly wanted it.

The Wildcats didn’t bring the same fight, nor was the energy there. That’s how you lose to a team ranked No. 129 in the NET on the road.

An uncomfortable reality to close out the season

“Here’s what’s great. We got the kind of schedule that — let’s go win games and we’ll be fine,” John Calipari said after the loss. “Just gonna have to go win games … It’s not like we don’t have any other chances to go get this right.”

Six games left, four being Quad 1 opportunities: at Mississippi State, vs. Tennessee, at Florida, at Arkansas. One Quad 2 vs. Auburn, one Quad 3 vs. Vanderbilt.

With all due respect, where are the “chances to go get this right” coming from? What has this team done to show it can stack those resume-building wins together to earn an at-large bid? Tshiebwe again discussed the team’s fight and that being the key to a run to close out the year. The Wildcats aren’t fighting in must-win road games against weak competition — and yes, it was weak competition. Where is this breakthrough coming from exactly?

I get it. You have to say it, you have to exude confidence. “Yeah, we’re screwed!” obviously won’t fly. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be realistic either.

And until they prove otherwise, ‘realistic’ is this team missing the NCAA Tournament, extending Kentucky’s streak of zero March Madness wins since 2019 yet another year. Circumstances are what they are — no one can control the tournament being canceled in 2020 — but you can only come up with so many excuses before accepting the rest for what it is: not good enough.

You can’t follow up the worst regular season in program history (9-16, 2020-21) with the worst postseason loss in program history (St. Peter’s, 2021-22) and then not be invited to the NCAA Tournament at all a year later. Not at Kentucky. That isn’t Kentucky basketball. This isn’t Kentucky basketball.

A miracle seems highly unlikely, but John Calipari has no choice but to put one together. And that’s a wildly uncomfortable turn of events to rely on right about now.