Lessons Learned from Kentucky SP+ Preview

The proliferation of power rankings has been a fun additional wrinkle into Talking Season. Rather than simply relying on anecdotal evidence, college football fans now can point to quantifiable data while debating which team is better months before ever stepping onto the football field. Bill Connelly is entering the equation with an SP+ preview of the SEC 34 days before the league kicks off the 2024 season.

Power ratings can be confusing to understand. In the simplest explanation possible, SP+ uses past data to create a forward-looking metric. A school’s history, returning production, and offseason talent acquisition all play a role in creating these numbers we can use to ultimately project spreads. In the early years of its existence, SP+ had an edge on Vegas, but the bookmakers have since integrated it into their spread-making equations.

Looking specifically at this year’s Kentucky football team, the theme surrounding the Wildcats anecdotally is backed up by the data. Mark Stoops has created a solid foundation, but this Top 25 team plays football in the SEC.

“When Mark Stoops took over at Kentucky in 2013, the Wildcats had finished one of the past 28 seasons in the SP+ top 25. They’ve now done so in five of the past six years. They’ve bowled for eight straight,” writes Connelly. “This is a sound, sturdy program, one that, if it were in the Big 12, would be an annual conference title (and, therefore, playoff) contender.”

Kentucky is ranked in the Top 25 nationally, but tenth in the SEC. It Just Means More.

Read Bill Connelly’s entire SP+ SEC Preview on ESPN+.

The Wildcats are projected to win seven games, 3.5 in SEC play. The ten most difficult schedules in the country are in the SEC and Kentucky’s ranks No. 9. Despite the challenging schedule, Kentucky has an 87.7% chance to go bowling for a ninth-straight year. There’s a 2.1% chance the Wildcats win 10 games in the first year of the 16-team SEC.

Kentucky fans are playing a game of seesaw in the preseason. Even though the schedule that lies ahead is daunting, the Wildcats have the most returning production in the league, ranking 14th nationally.

The numbers say this dichotomy means Kentucky will end up somewhere in the middle of two extremes. The defense gives the Cats a high floor, but the schedule and new pieces within the offense lowers the ceiling. Kentucky enters the 2024 SEC football season in the middle of the road. There are much worse places to be.

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