What Liam Coen's Success in Tampa Bay Means for Mark Stoops in Kentucky

No one likes the taste of sour grapes unless they’re mashed to make wine. There are a few reasons why Kentucky football fans can be frustrated with Liam Coen, but his year one success in Tampa Bay is a glaring indictment on Mark Stoops‘ program.

We’ve been through this song and dance before. Johnny Juzang‘s success at UCLA after transferring to Kentucky was the first time Big Blue Nation collectively did the, “Look at how good this guy is now that he’s left!” It continued with other transfers and now it’s continuing to a different degree with John Calipari. It may annoy some, but there are lessons to be learned from one’s success, or lack thereof, once they leave Lexington for greener pastures.

In the same year that Kentucky failed to score more than 20 points in an SEC game, Coen served as the architect for the best offense in the NFL. Two days after the regular season, the Jaguars formally requested to interview Coen for their head coaching vacancy. When you take a closer look at the numbers, it’s easy to understand why.

Numbers Behind the Tampa Bay Turnaround

We saw a similar turnaround when Coen arrived in Lexington. In 2023 the Bucs ranked 20th in scoring, 32nd in rushing, and 30th in red zone touchdown percentage. They ranked in the top five in all three of those categories in 2024.

That does not accurately do justice to what Coen accomplished with Baker Mayfield. According to The Athletic, the Bucs are the first offense since 2000 to meet or exceed the following marks over a full season:

• 28 points per game (28.6 for Tampa)
• 6.0 yards per play (6.2)
• 65 percent red zone touchdown rate (66.7)
• 50 percent third-down conversion rate (50.9)

There have been 798 offenses during that time and the Bucs are the only ones to hit each of those high points. Heck, only 39 offenses in the last 25 years have averaged better than 28 points per game.

The Bucs were the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in total yards, passing, and rushing yards. They also became the first team in NFL history to complete 70% of their passes and rush for at least 5.0 yards per carry in the same season. It’s only one season, but it’s enough for Coen’s resume to put him on a path to become an NFL head coach.

Kentucky Offensive Output Without Coen

Mark Stoops was a defensive coordinator before he was a head coach. Throughout his entire tenure, there’s been an ongoing debate on how much control he has over the Kentucky offense. From a day-to-day perspective, it’s irrelevant. The results are the results and they are bad.

ESPN’s SP+ ratings measure efficiency. The only two offenses to rank in the Top 50 under Mark Stoops were called by Liam Coen. Take a closer look at the numbers since Kentucky made its first postseason appearance with Stoops on the sideline.

Year	SP+ Efficiency (National Rank)	Points Per Game	Yards Per Play
2016	57 (30.8)	30.0 (58)	6.26 (32)
2017	52 (30.8)	25.5 (87)	5.56 (70)
2018	64 (29.5)	26.6 (85)	5.64 (72)
2019	52 (30.1)	27.2 (76)	6.15 (39)
2020	80 (27.0)	21.8 (107)	5.15 (95)
2021	21 (35.1)	32.3 (35)	6.4 (21)
2022	97 (20.6)	20.4 (112)	5.2 (101)
2023	34 (31.5)	29.1 (58)	6.18 (40)
2024	24.2 (89)	20.6 (119)	5.25 (107)

It’s worth adding some context to these numbers. Lynn Bowden’s explosiveness upped the offensive efficiency in 2019. The Cats also had more juice when they had Juice Johnson, Jeff Badet, Boom Williams, and Benny Snell in 2016.

Most importantly, the best offense under Mark Stoops had a future NFL starting quarterback taking snaps from a center who started in the NFL. They had the school’s first All-American offensive tackle since 1965 on one side of the line. They also had a wide receiver breaking Air Raid records and a running back with a top-five season in school history. Those are outliers.

What Does This All Mean?

There is more than one way to skin a cat. You don’t need an NFL play-caller at offensive coordinator to have a competent offense, and yet that’s exactly the case for Mark Stoops’ Kentucky football program.

Another Liam Coen ain’t walking through that door (even though he did do that once). Mark Stoops has staked his entire reputation on this pro-style offense, which requires exceptional offensive line play to operate efficiently.

In 2024, 51 FBS teams averaged more than 30 points per game. Do you think they all had dominant offensive lines? No, they found a way to scheme around it. For Stoops to succeed at Kentucky, the head coach must find some way to consistently produce points without a mercenary calling the shots who’s on his way to becoming an NFL head coach.

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