Loaded Blue Grass Stakes is the Final Test for Kentucky Derby Hopefuls

Unusual circumstances have led us to an unusual Tuesday at Keeneland. Typically, the track is quiet on Tuesdays. Flooding across the Commonwealth has made this the loudest Tuesday in the track’s history as the top three-year-olds in horse racing compete in the Blue Grass Stakes.

The Grade I $1.25 million race is the final major race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. This Saturday’s Grade III Lexington at Keeneland will dish out a few points, but for all intents and purposes, this is the last dance before the biggest party in horse racing. Post time at Keeneland is set for 5:52 PM EST.

The 7-horse field has two horses who have already won Kentucky Derby preps, Burnham Square (Holy Bull) and Owen Almighty (Tampa Bay Derby). Neither of those is the morning-line favorite. That honor belongs to the speedy River Thames, who finished second in the Fountain of Youth.

Two other horses were stars as two-year-olds. East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick were the top two betting favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after recording graded stakes victories. After failing to hit the board, the heavily raced two-year-olds only have one start this spring. Chancer McPatrick finished second to Owen Almighty in the Tampa Bay Derby, while East Avenue served as the early speed in the Risen Star before finishing 10th. One can expect them to improve in their second start of spring.

Blue Grass Stakes Field

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Morning- Line Odds
1	River Thames	Todd Pletcher	Irad Ortiz Jr.	5-2
2	Render Judgment	Kenny McPeek	Sheldon Russell	20-1
3	Burnham Square	Ian Wilkes	Brian Hernandez Jr.	4-1
4	Owen Almighty	Brian Lynch	Jose Ortiz	3-1
5	East Avenue	Brendan Walsh	Luan Machado	3-1
6	Chancer McPatrick	Chad Brown	Flavien Prat	7-2
7	Admiral Dennis	Brad Cox	Luis Saez	20-1

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Prediction and Picks

There is a lot of early speed in this race. East Avenue, Owen Almighty, and River Thames will be racing for the lead. That should set up well for a closer.

Chancer McPatrick is trained by Chad Brown. Last year, Brown’s closer Sierra Leone rallied from the back of the pack in his second start as a three-year-old to win the Blue Grass Stakes. History has a way of repeating itself. You can expect that horse and Burnham Square to make strong closing moves down the stretch while one of those speed horses tries to hang on and go wire-to-wire.

Picks
Win: Chancer McPatrick
50-cent Trifecta Box: 1, 3, 4, 6

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