Looking ahead to the SEC: How many wins are left for Kentucky WBB?

Following Kentucky women’s basketball’s 72-59 win over Samford on Sunday, the Lady ‘Cats have officially clawed back to .500 and sit at 7-7 on the season.

This also marks the end of the non-conference schedule, and it is now time for Kentucky to face the gauntlet of the Southeastern Conference. In a league with college basketball’s top-ranked team, the defending national champions, and many more teams on the rise, how competitive can Kyra Elzy and her team be over the last 16 games of the regular season?

Let’s figure that out, shall we?

Defending Rupp Arena

• Jan 4: Arkansas (12-3)
• Jan 11: Vanderbilt (13-1)
• Jan 21: Missouri (9-4)
• Feb 1: Mississippi State (13-2)
• Feb 11: Texas A&M (12-1)
• Feb 18: Florida (9-3)
• Feb 25: No. 1 South Carolina (12-0)
• Feb 29: Ole Miss (10-3)

The game against Samford also marked the last time that Kentucky will play a home game outside of Rupp Arena this season. No more Clive M. Beck Center or Davis-Reid Alumni Gym. That in itself is a plus. With such a difficult schedule ahead, there’s no need for Kentucky to have to deal with any other inconsistencies. I don’t see this making a huge difference in Kentucky’s SEC record, but it does help.

All of those opposing records look intimidating, especially if you’re 7-7 Kentucky, but there is hope. A lot of teams use their non-conference schedule to beat up on smaller schools, so some of those wins have come against mediocre competition. Let’s look at Arkansas, for example.

The Razorbacks’ most impressive win was against No. 22 Florida State on the road. Don’t get me wrong, that’s an impressive win, but it’s also their only impressive win. Arkansas was pummeled by No. 2 UCLA 81-66, and they also have losses to No. 19 Marquette and 5-8 Arkansas Pine-Bluff at home. Oh, and they also beat Samford by 14 (68-54). Kentucky beat the Bulldogs by 13 (72-59). And Samford hit a last-second three against Kentucky, just saying.

Point being, there’s a case you can make against a lot of these SEC teams. Despite their records, they all (except for South Carolina) have weaknesses that Kentucky can exploit. Am I saying that Kentucky will beat all (or even most) of these teams? No. The ‘Cats probably won’t even be favored in any game the rest of the way, but they can steal a few wins, at least.

So, if Kentucky is going to win any of these home SEC games, which ones would they be? I just made the case for a win against Arkansas, so we’ll also say that Kentucky can win that game. Then, I would say that every home game besides South Carolina is winnable.

Prediction: Kentucky defeats Arkansas and Missouri, and they’ll steal one against Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, or Florida to go 3-5 at home in the SEC.

Going on the road

• Jan 7: Tennessee (7-5)
• Jan 15: No. 1 South Carolina (12-0)
• Jan 25: Arkansas (12-3)
• Jan 28: Alabama (13-2)
• Feb 4: Georgia (9-4)
• Feb 15: Auburn (11-2)
• Feb 22: Mississippi State (13-2)
• Mar 3: No. 7 LSU (13-1)

Now, for the road games. Unfortunately for Kentucky, they’ll have to play their toughest opponents on their home floors, but that could actually end up being a good thing. Kentucky is almost certainly going to lose to LSU, for example. So, you might as well make that one of your road games and save a home game for a more favorable matchup. And speaking of favorable matchups, there isn’t one for Kentucky in any of their SEC road games this season.

All it takes is a simple glance at the records and you can determine that Kentucky’s most winnable road game will be in Thompson-Boling Arena against Tennessee. However, four of Tennessee’s five losses have come against teams that are currently ranked (No. 14 Indiana, No. 16 Notre Dame, No. 20 Ohio State, and No. 22 Florida State). Tennessee’s only “bad loss” came to Middle Tennessee State at home.

You can already chalk up the games against South Carolina and LSU as losses, if we’re being real. Unless a miracle happens, I don’t see any way the ‘Cats can come away with wins in those two games. But, if you’re going to be the ultimate optimist, you can argue that Kyra Elzy is at her best when all of the odds are stacked against her. I, however, am not the ultimate optimist, so we’ll go ahead and take a gander at some of the other games that Kentucky will be playing away from Lexington.

Other than Tennessee, Georgia is easily the next best chance that Kentucky has at winning any road games. The Lady Bulldogs’ best win is against… 8-5 Purdue at home. They lost to Duke 72-65 in overtime, and then Pitt and Ball State, both at home. But none of those compare to their 76-50 loss to Belmont. Georgia’s home environment doesn’t really lean towards the rowdy side either. So, Kentucky has a real chance of leaving Athens with a win.

Those two games are the only games that I would really consider to be real opportunities for Kentucky on the road. Of course, besides South Carolina and LSU, they can go steal a win or two in any other contest. In the SEC, however, stealing games will be very tough to do.

Prediction: Kentucky will defeat Tennessee and Georgia on the road. The ‘Cats finish with a record of 2-6 on the road in SEC games.

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With that, my official prediction is for Kentucky to go 5-11 in the SEC, meaning that Kentucky’s overall regular season record would be 12-18. Last season, Kentucky went 10-18 in the regular season, so they would see two more wins this time around in this case. In the 2022-23 season, Kentucky only had 28 regular season games. This year, they have 30. So, do I expect any crazy improvement from last year? Unfortunately, no. And honestly, I may have been slightly generous with my predictions. We’ll see how the ‘Cats fare in the SEC starting against Arkansas on Thursday.