Crunching the Math for March Champs

First off – big ups to BlugrassDiesel in the show thread today, for getting this idea going.  Free throws have been a big topic of discussion for this team (and pretty much every Calipari team, but just how important are they when it comes time to win a title?  Are there other factors we can look at too?

We’re going to compare some statistics to see where each title team finished, and where Kentucky falls in so far this year.

Free Throw Percentage
2003 Syracuse 69%
2004 UConn 61%
2005 UNC 73%
2006 Florida 73%
2007 Florida 68%
2008 Kansas 70%
2009 UNC 76%
2010 Duke 75%
2011 UConn 75%
2012 Kentucky 72%
2013 Louisville 71%
2014 Kentucky 66%

Takeaway:  Well.  Kentucky isn’t the worst so we’ve got that going for us, which is nice.  And let’s throw 2008 Memphis in the mix – they only averaged 61% on their free throws, and were a crazy shot away from winning the title.  That said, it’s clear that more consistency with free throws takes this team from good to great, so it’d be nice if that percentage creeped up about 4 points. 

3pt Percentage
2003 Syracuse 35%
2004 UConn 40%
2005 UNC 40%
2006 Florida 39%
2007 Florida 41%
2008 Kansas 40%
2009 UNC 31%
2010 Duke 39%
2011 UConn 33%
2012 Kentucky 39%
2013 Louisville 33%
2014 Kentucky 30%

Takeaway: With great post play, Kentucky hasn’t had to rely on the three too heavily.  And with Randle getting better at passing out of double and triple teams, the percentage will get better.  But it’s clear that the Cats need to work on taking smarter shots here, too.  But at the end of the day, the 3 ball is only to keep teams honest.  Kentucky is going to win on their inside play this year.

FG Percentage

2003 Syracuse 46%
2004 UConn 48%
2005 UNC 50%
2006 Florida 50%
2007 Florida 53%
2008 Kansas 51%
2009 UNC 45%
2010 Duke 44%
2011 UConn 43%
2012 Kentucky 49%
2013 Louisville 45%
2014 Kentucky 48%

Takeaway:  This should be encouraging.  Kentucky is right in the middle here, and they’re still rounding in to shape.

And then of course, there is the Offensive and Defensive efficiency rating. Every champ for the past ten years has been in the top 20 of both categories, with only two being outside the top 5 in offensive, and three outside the top 5 in defensive

Kentucky is 11th in Adjusted Offensive efficiency so far on the season… and 45th in Adj Defensive efficiency.

The teams that are in the top twenty in both so far this season?  Kansas, Syracuse, and Arizona.  That’s it.

The stats back up what we already knew, to be honest.  The Cats still have work to do.  But as Calipari has preached – enjoy the process.  They’re getting better.  Here towards the end of SEC play, we will take a look at how the Cats performed solely in the SEC season, and compare the statistics again.

Until then – Go Cats, Beat Tennessee.