Early Scouting Report: Louisville Cardinals

Scott Satterfield is now in year four at Louisville, but this is a program still very much in wait-and-see mode. Despite having just one starter at quarterback throughout his entire tenure in the ACC, the former App State head coach is just 18-19 overall, and most start collecting wins.

A recent recruiting boom out of nowhere and a change in administration are giving Satterfield some more wiggle room, but this is a critical year for the play-calling head coach. The Cardinals don’t need to make a run at an ACC title, but this team needs to show improvement with a bunch of senior starters.

Nuts and Bolts

Louisville is currently on pace to sign a top-20 recruiting class in the 2023 cycle. The Cardinals have five top-250 prospects in the fold with some success in Metro Los Angeles giving this program a much-needed shot in the arm.

Unfortunately, no other class under Scott Satterfield was even close to this tier.

We’ve seen four classes, and Louisville has yet to crack the top 45 in average star rating. The Cardinals signed just six top-500 recruits over those four years, and more than half of the high school signees in 2020 have left the program. That has created a weird roster situation in the Derby City.

Louisville, fortunately, has been able to take advantage of the COVID rule that granted all players that played in 2020 an extra year of eligibility. The Cards will have 10 super seniors in the two deep, and eight of them will be starters in Week 1.

The high school recruiting misses are a big deal, but junior college efficiency has saved the Cardinals. UofL will have six former junior college products contributing this season with YaYa Diaby and Monty Montgomery in star roles along the front seven.

Satterfield has a unique roster situation in 2022. Super seniors, junior college transfers, and recent transfer portal additions will make up most of the starting lineup this season. Louisville is an old team that needs to win right now.

Transfer Portal recap

Louisville was hit just about as hard as any program when it came to transfer departures. Over the last calendar year, the Cards have seen 17 scholarship players leave the program, and six have landed at other Power Five programs.

After last season, Louisville saw wideouts Justin Marshall (Buffalo) and Jordan Watkins (Ole Miss) bolt. Following a strong spring, Tyler Harrell (Alabama) then entered the transfer portal. Scott Satterfield’s staff had a lot of work to do to replenish the roster.

The Cardinals added 11 players from the transfer portal and most of them could be starting this season.

At tailback, Tennessee transfer Tiyon Evans (another junior college product) has had a big fall camp and is the favorite to open the season as the starter at tailback. Miami transfer Dee Wiggins has also made a fall camp splash and is the deep threat that will attempt to take Harrell’s place in the offense. Central Arkansas transfer Tyler Hudson was a big addition who will be another target for the passing game.

On defense, Florida State transfer Jarvis Brownlee will be an opening day starter at cornerback. Arizona State transfer Jermayne Lole gives the defensive line some much-needed size and playmaking ability. Jacksonville State transfer Nicario Harper is pushing for a starting spot at Louisville’s hybrid LB/S spot. Ole Miss transfer Momo Sanogo has been called a team leader by the coaching staff at inside linebacker.

With three other former transfers expected to start, Louisville might be the transfer portal team in 2022. The Cardinals are hoping to be this year’s version of Michigan State.

Louisville offense

Notre Dame assistant Lance Taylor was named the offensive coordinator at Louisville in the offseason, but Scott Satterfield is still calling the plays. The UofL program has put out a top-30 product every year under the current regime. The Cards are an outside zone offense that operates out of the pistol with a heavy volume of motion and play-action to help create matchups on the perimeter.

Louisville has been a big-play offense and that stayed the course last fall.

• Scoring: 31.6 (T-40 overall)
• Success Rate: 43.7% (No. 59 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 6.7 (T-10 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 5.4 (No. 5 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 8.4 (T-24 overall)
• Explosive Play Rate: 14.7% (No. 13 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.54 (No. 39 overall)
• Points Per Scoring Opportunity: 4.6 (No. 29 overall)

As the numbers show, this was a very solid offense last year. There were some efficiency issues, and that could lead to some lulls in games. But overall, this group was very explosive and it was due to what the offense had at quarterback.

Malik Cunningham (6-1, 190, Super) averaged 8.7 yards per attempt on 25.9 throws per game with a 48.1 percent passing success rate. But the dual-threat quarterback rushed for 1,142 non-sack rushing yards and 20 touchdowns on 13.3 attempts per game with a 52.9 percent rushing success rate.

Cunningham was the Louisville offense.

Louisville QB Malik Cunningham went 72 yards to take it to the endzone 🔥

(via @GoCards)pic.twitter.com/vCBVLDSYSr

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) November 19, 2021

However, the quarterback has had issues staying healthy and playing full games during his career. Cunningham missed possessions against Clemson and Wake Forest in close losses that easily could’ve been Louisville wins. Keeping No. 3 healthy will be paramount this season. Louisville will need its rushing attack to provide more consistency so the quarterback has a lesser volume in the run game.

Trevion Cooley (5-10, 211, So.) and Jalen Mitchell (5-10, 214, RJr.) combined to collect 1,153 rushing yards on 20.1 attempts per game, but the duo posted a combined success rate of just 37.8 percent. The traditional run game provided some splash plays but was woefully inefficient with too many negative plays (22.8% stuff rate).

An addition from the transfer portal could help answer the need for more ground game consistency.

Tiyon Evans (5-11, 210, Sr.) rushed for 525 yards and six touchdowns last year at Tennessee before being lost to an ankle injury. The former junior college product had a very robust success rate (60.5%) in 81 attempts. Evans will be an important part of the Louisville offense as the Cards have a deep running back room but need an RB1 to emerge to help Cunningham.

Marshon Ford (6-2, 240, RSr.) returns at tight end, and the former walk-on is a versatile piece that the offensive coaching staff will use in a variety of ways. The Louisville (Ky.) Ballard product led the Cardinals in receptions (49) and receiving yards (550). Ford is a quality intermediate option, but some wide receivers need to emerge.

Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (5-10, 163, So.) had a promising true freshman campaign and should open the year as Louisville’s top option in the slot. However, Louisville lost its top outside receivers to transfer. Two expected starters were added from the transfer portal.

Tyler Hudson (6-2, 197, Sr.) comes to the ACC from the FCS after being named a first-team All-American in 2021. Hudson has collected 167 career receptions for 3,062 yards and 26 touchdowns in his career. Dee Wiggins (6-3, 195, RSr.) comes to Louisville after four years at Miami. The former high three-star recruit brings 62 receptions, starting experience, and vertical speed to the offense.

Louisville needs these transfers to step up and produce at the skill talent positions for the offense to reach its ceiling.

On the line of scrimmage, transfers were not needed. Louisville returned four starters on the offensive line as did top reserve Bryan Hudson (6-4, 310, Sr.) who played over 500 snaps last year. The Cards have one of the most experienced offensive lines in college football. At left guard, Caleb Chandler (6-4, 297, Super) is an All-American candidate.

The pieces are there for this offense to take a leap and become a top-15 unit this fall. The Cardinals are old and have a quarterback, coaching continuity, and a dependable offensive line. The transfers at tailback and wide receiver hit there should be a lot of points scored at Cardinal Stadium.

Louisville defense

There was some scuttlebutt that there could be a change on defense following the 2021 season, but Scott Satterfield decided to bring defensive coordinator Bryan Brown for year four. An argument can be made that this unit has improved each year, but that is a low bar to clear.

A bad ending took away from some of the progress Louisville made, but this side of the ball still has a lot of work to do.

• Scoring: 27.3 (No. 77 overall)
• Success Rate: 42.7% (No. 70 overall)
• Yards Per Play: 5.8 (T-88 overall)
• Yards Per Rush: 4.4 (No. 83 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 7.4 (T-72 overall)
• Havoc Rate: 11.2% (No. 84 overall)
• Pressure Rate: 27.8% (No. 84 overall)
• Points Per Drive: 2.56 (No. 93 overall)
• Points Per Scoring Opportunity: 4.6 (No. 112 overall)

Brown’s defense was not necessarily good at anything last season, but the unit wasn’t awful until it came time to get a stop when backed up. Injuries, poor depth, and a lack of size lowered this group’s ceiling. Returning production and offseason transfer additions could help improve the depth and size issues upfront.

On the line of scrimmage, Louisville is still small, and Satterfield has admitted that the original roster-building method by the staff was a miscalculation. The Cards are now focusing on getting bigger. Arizona State transfer Jermayne Lole (6-3, 324, RSr.) helps fill a need, and he will be an important part of the defense. The Los Angeles native was one of the best run support players in college football two years ago. Teaming up with YaYa Diaby (6-4, 270, Super) could give UofL some real value in run defense.

There is still a lack of quality depth, but Louisville improved in the offseason on the defensive line.

On the edge, Yasir Abdullah (6-1, 242, Super) logged 17.5 tackles for loss last year and is the top playmaker on this defense. The South Florida product had a breakthrough season and will be depended on to provide high-level havoc production as the Cards continue to rebuild the defensive front.

“When [Yasir Abdullah] brings that thump, he brings it.” —@CoachB_BROWN

@UofLFootball #PackerAndDurham pic.twitter.com/htHIoFqGGR

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) August 17, 2021

At linebacker, Monty Montgomery (5-11, 200, Super) returns from injury, and Momo Sanogo (6-1, 235, Super) are both veterans who have struggled with injuries in their careers. However, each brings a ton of experience to the field.

In the secondary, Louisville has the best player on the unit. Former Liberty transfer Kei’Trel Clark (5-10, 177, Sr.) is now in year three in the ACC. The cornerback has recorded 23 pass breakups/interceptions, and UofL missed the corner a ton when forced to play without him in the last seven games last year. Joining him at cornerback will be Florida State transfer Jarvis Brownlee (5-11, 186, RJr.) who was very productive last year as a starter. Cornerback could become a position of strength.

At safety, Kenderick Duncan (6-3, 206, Super) returns, and the former Georgia Southern transfer is the defense’s top returning tackler (76). Jacksonville State transfer Nicario Harper (6-1, 203, RSr.) will likely join him in the starting lineup.

Even on defense, Louisville is heavily reliant on transfers. If this group can take another step forward, transfers will have to play well.

Outlook

Thanks to some recent recruiting success, there is now some future promise for Louisville football, but this program must get through the 2021 season first. To replenish the roster, Scott Satterfield’s staff hammered the transfer portal in the offseason.

Louisville will have one of the oldest teams in college football, and they’ll be taking on a tricky schedule. The Cardinals open the season with consecutive road games against both Syracuse and UCF before welcoming Florida State in Week 3. An 0-3 start is possible.

UofL draws Pittsburgh from the Coastal and goes to Boston College and Virginia in consecutive weeks after the tough start to the season. The year ends with consecutive games against Clemson, NC State, and Kentucky. An argument can be made that this is the toughest schedule in program history.

To survive it and reach bowl eligibility so this regime can keep moving forward, Louisville will need its experienced quarterback to play like a star and for a handful of transfers to play at a high level.