Trends all lean Kentucky's way in Governor's Cup

Mark Stoops owns a five-game winning streak in the Governor’s Cup series. The Wildcats have won three games in a row at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium and have not lost to Louisville at Kroger Field since 2017 when Bobby Petrino was holding the call sheet and and Lamar Jackson was playing quarterback. The Wildcats have also covered a lot of spreads in this series.

Stoops is 7-2-1 against-the-spread (ATS) in this series with with covers as a double-digit dog in 2014 and 2016. Kentucky has beaten Louisville outright as a dog three times since 2016 and has covered five straight in this series. Those are not the only trends going in Kentucky’s direction heading into this Week 14 contest.

Louisville is 0-4-1 ATS as a road favorite under Jeff Brohm with outright losses to Pittsburgh and Stanford. Kentucky is 5-0-1 ATS as a dog in its last six outings including four games this season. Kentucky covered numbers as a double-digit dog against Georgia, Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Texas this fall.

The visitor is 11-3-1 ATS (10-5 outright) in the last 15 meetings of this series with 10 outright wins, but Kentucky has won the last two meetings at Kroger Field covering each times as a three-point favorite. In 2019, Kentucky ran away for a 45-13 victory and cruised to a 26-13 victory in 2022.

Kentucky has consistently overachieved pregame expectations in this series. The Wildcats are currently a 3.5-point dog with a total of 48.5. That’s a projected final score of 26-22.5. Will UK exceed expectations again against Louisville? A win would equal four outright upsets for the Big Blue in the last eight meetings of the series.

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