Scouting Report: LSU Tigers

Things are starting to become fun in the Bluegrass. A week after knocking off top-10 Florida, No. 16 Kentucky will put its 5-0 record on the line against unranked LSU.

Who saw that coming?

For the fourth week in a row, Kentucky won a one-possession game as the defense made key stop after key stop and the Wildcats were able to squeeze out just enough offense to bring home the biggest home win in over a decade. Now it’s time for the repeat performance.

Keeneland’s fall meet began this week and the double-dip will be alive and well on Saturday with another huge Kentucky football game. KSR’s Scouting Report is here to provide the lowdown on the 2021 LSU Tigers.

Nuts and Bolts

After a failed three-year stint at Ole Miss from 2005-07, 46-year-old Ed Orgeron had to wonder if he would ever get another shot to run a big-time college football program. The recruiting ace for Pete Carroll at USC spent a year with the New Orleans Saints in 2008 before reuniting with Lane Kiffin at Tennessee in 2009.

From there, Coach O followed Kiffin back to USC and was the guy the Trojans turned to when Kiffin was fired on a tarmac in the middle of the 2013 season. Orgeron would take over at USC and lead the Trojans to a 6-2 finish with a win over Pac-12 champion Stanford. Yet, USC decided to hire Steve Sarkisian.

From there, Orgeron would take the 2014 season off before joining Les Miles’ staff at LSU in 2015. Once Miles was fired after a 2-2 start in 2016, Orgeron once again found himself in the interim chair. He again led a resurgence.

The Tigers went 5-2 to finish the regular season with a win over ranked Texas A&M on the road to cap it off. Once Tom Herman picked Texas, the Tigers turned to Orgeron.

After a 9-4 debut season that included a home loss to Troy in 2017, Orgeron brought in Joe Burrow the next offseason. The Tigers would then go on to win 25 games over the next two seasons and bring home the national championship in 2019 with the best offense this sport has ever seen. The honeymoon did not last long.

LSU went 5-5 in the COVID-19 season and now Orgeron is on this third defensive coordinator in three years. Meanwhile, Jake Peetz was hired from the Carolina Panthers in hopes of capturing some of the Joe Brady magic that the assistant brought with him from the New Orleans Saints to LSU in 2019. However, the Tigers have suffered two tough defeats to UCLA and Auburn leading to unrest in Death Valley.

The seat is getting warm for Orgeron and he needs wins quickly.

This will be the 58th meeting between the two programs with LSU owning a 40-16-1 series lead. However, this will only be the fifth meeting between the two longtime SEC schools since 2006. LSU is making the trip to Lexington for the first time since 2007. We all know what happened that afternoon.

Out in the desert, Kentucky is a 3.5 point favorite with a total of 50.5. That’s a projected final score of 27-23.5. The Wildcats are 4-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and the Tigers are 2-3 ATS. Ed Orgeron is 7-0 ATS with five straight-up wins as a road dog at LSU. Mark Stoops and Kentucky are 5-6 ATS as a touchdown or less home favorite since 2016.

LSU offense

Joe Burrow is not walking through that door and neither is Joe Brady. However, Jake Peetz has moved to Baton Rouge from the Carolina Panthers and the former offensive analyst at Alabama has a passing game that can make some defenses sweat.

With sophomore Max Johnson (No. 14) behind center, the Tigers lead the SEC in explosive completions in 20 yards, 30 yards, and 40 yards. Johnson paces the league with 16 touchdown passes and is averaging over eight yards per attempt. However, the Tigers are asking a lot of their young quarterback who can get a little wild with the ball.

That's a bold strategy, Cotton 😅 pic.twitter.com/Z6MVFIatDT

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 5, 2021

Johnson has a passing success rate of 48.07 percent putting him in the middle of the pack in the SEC. The left-handed quarterback has issues when pressured, but he is effective and efficient when able to play on-platform and make throws from the pocket.

Johnson has one clear top target and sophomore Kayshon Boutte (No. 1) appears to be well on his way to an All-American season.

The former five-star recruit out of Louisiana leads the Tigers in targets (45), receptions (30), and leads the country in touchdowns (9). Nearly 25 percent of Johnson’s throws are going in Boutte’s direction and that is not a bad idea.

Boutte is an alpha receiver who LSU will target in a multitude of ways. He is the target on most of Johnson’s RPO throws as the Tigers look to get him the ball and let him gobble up yards after the catch. However, this offense entered the season without a true No. 2 receiver. LSU has looked to true freshmen to fill that hole.

Jack Bech (No. 80) is second on the team in targets (27) and leads the team with a 62.96 percent receiving success rate. The 6-foot-2 rookie looks like a future star and can be very effective out of the slot. Five-star recruit Deion Smith (No. 6) is a player LSU is really trying to get going. Meanwhile, fellow true freshman Brian Thomas Jr. (No. 11) has a success rate over 50 percent.

The offense is dealing with some growing pains due to all of the young receivers teaming up with a young quarterback, but it’s clear that the future of this group is very bright.

However, the rushing attack is ugly.

Starting tailback Tyrion Davis-Price (No. 3) has a rushing success rate of just 31.11 percent on 45 rushes. LSU ranks 123rd national in rushing success rate and 126th in yard per rush. True freshman Corey Kiner (No. 21) has had some success recently but this unit just cannot get the run game established.

Due to this, LSU ranks sixth nationally in pass play percentage (62.17%) as Mississippi State and Virginia are the only Power Five teams who pass the ball more. LSU is putting a ton of pressure on its young quarterback who is throwing to a bunch of young receivers in a brand new scheme.

Entering the season, the offensive line looked like an on-paper advantage for the Tigers. That has not been the case. The pass protection has held up for most of the season but this group has had no success moving people in the run game. That is surprising with a pair of super seniors at center and right tackle while left guard Ed Ingram (No. 70) has All-SEC potential. The Tigers have a major hole at left tackle after losing Dare Rosenthal.

LSU is a one-dimensional offense. If the vertical passing game is taken away, it can be very hard for the Tigers to consistently move the football and put points on the board.

LSU defense

After Dave Aranda left his post as defensive coordinator at LSU to become the head football coach at Baylor, Ed Orgeron turned to Youngstown State head coach Bo Pelini. The Youngstown, Ohio, native was the defensive coordinator at LSU for the 2007 national championship team before a successful but maligned tenure at Nebraska.

His second stint at LSU was a disaster.

Pelini famously refused to get out of press-man coverage as LSU was sliced up by Mississippi State in Mike Leach’s SEC debut. The Tigers finished 125th nationally in yards per play defense (7.26) as this unit filled with blue-chip recruits could not stop a nosebleed.

Pelini was let go after the season and Orgeron went on the hunt for a defensive coordinator. Notre Dame beat the Tigers out in a bidding war for Cincinnati defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman and then could not get Ryan Nielsen to leave the New Orleans Saints. Orgeron settled on Minnesota Vikings assistant Daronte Jones to run the show in Baton Rouge.

The Tigers have made improvements, but there is still a long way to go.

In his first year as a defensive coordinator since 2009, the 42-year-old play-caller is using a 4-2-5 base with a good amount of man coverage sprinkled in. The Tigers trust their cornerbacks in isolation and ask their four-down front to win one-on-ones. This is a group that has made strides.

LSU might have the best nickel cornerback in the SEC.

Cordale Flott (No. 25) has 23 tackles on the season and is a very important intermediate defender for the Tigers. A junior out of Alabama forced two turnovers in the road win over Mississippi State to end scoring drives for the Bulldogs. He will be matched up with Wan’Dale Robinson many times on Saturday.

Elsewhere in the secondary, junior cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. has been ruled out for the game. However, the Tigers have other options. Eli Ricks (No. 1) is a former five-star recruit from Metro Los Angeles who has five interceptions and a pair of defensive touchdowns in just 13 career games.

At safety, LSU will be without starter Major Burns but former Kentucky commit Jay Ward (No. 5) returned to the lineup in SEC play after missing two games in September. The South Georgia native had six pass breakups and three interceptions last season emerging as a true playmaker in the secondary.

On the line of scrimmage, LSU is led by a pair of good-looking edge rushers. Ali Gaye (No. 11) and BJ Ojulari (No. 8) have combined to collect 12.5 sacks, nine tackles for loss, eight pass breakups, and two forced fumbles over the last two seasons. Both players are havoc creators.

Elsewhere, Maason Smith (No. 0) was a big-time five-star recruiting win who is getting some reps at defensive end. However, this is a little out of position for him as the d-line’s depth took a hit when Andre Anthony was lost for the season after recording 3.5 sacks in three games.

On the interior, Jaquelin Roy (No. 99) has been a big-time producer as a pass rusher while super senior Neil Farrell Jr. (No. 92) gives the Tigers a 325-pound run stuffer on the inside.

At off-ball linebacker, Damone Clark (No. 18) is a 6-foot-3 and 245-pound Mike linebacker who leads the SEC in tackles (54). Kentucky must get him blocked on run concepts.

As a unit, this group has been very bad against the run. In their three games against Power Five opponents, the Tigers are allowing opposing offenses to post a 59.09 percent rushing success rate. The Tigers rank third nationally in tackles for loss per game, but this group struggles to fit the run and get ball carriers on the ground.

Through the air, Power Five opponents have produced a 49.60 percent passing success rate as the Tigers are constantly falling behind the chains on defense.

Situationally, LSU has some issues. The Tigers are 13th in the SEC and 114th nationally in third down defense. That continues in the red zone when LSU is 12th in the SEC and 110th nationally in red zone touchdown rate allowed.

With a new play-caller and some young pieces, this is a group that is going through some growing pains. LSU has made some improvements but through five games this has been a bottom-half defense in the SEC that struggles when tackles for loss aren’t created.

LSU special teams

Cade York is a junior from Texas and is an absolute weapon as a placekicker. The three-year starter has range from 50-plus and is 8 of 8 this season. For his career, York has made 83.9 percent of his attempts and can put points on the board whenever LSU gets across the opponent’s 40. This is a man that hit a 57-yard attempt in the fog to beat Florida as a 23-point underdog. York is a pro.

At punter, Avery Atkins is averaging over 40 yards per attempt and serves as the kickoff specialist with a touchback rate of 83.33 percent. In the return game, junior wideout Trey Palmer (No. 33) serves as the primary returner. Similar to Kentucky, the Tigers have had issues losing hidden yardage due to failure in fielding punts.

Overall, LSU has won the field position battle more times than not and has one of the best kicking weapons in college football. The Wildcats are at a disadvantage in the third phase on paper.

Meanwhile, safety Jay Ward has blocked a pair of kicks in his career. Kentucky must avoid catastrophe on special teams after having two kicks blocked this season.

Keys to Victory

• Kentucky’s offense ranks No. 19 nationally in run play percentage (61.72%) and LSU’s offense ranks No. 6 nationally in pass play percentage (62.17%). This is a game of conflicting styles. The Wildcats need to set the terms early and make LSU play in their style of game. Getting a lead early and establishing the run will be critical in accomplishing the mission.
• Speaking of the ground game, LSU’s lack of offensive success on the ground has gotten most of the pregame oxygen this week but the real story is the defensive numbers. The Tigers cannot stop the run and Kentucky must own this matchup. Expect the Wildcats to run early and often. Establishing the ground game will make things easier on third down and in the red zone as Liam Coen’s offense looks to extend drives and put points on the board.
• Big-play prevention is the name of the game for Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White. The Wildcats are elite at limiting splash plays. Meanwhile, LSU relies heavily a big pass plays. In the road win over Mississippi State, LSU got 21 points on three touchdown passes of 40-plus yards. The Tigers have eight touchdowns against Power Five foes this season and six have been passes of 30-plus yards. Kentucky has only given up one 30-yard pass play all season. Limit the chunks and it should be very hard for the Tigers to put together scoring possessions.
• In the win over Florida, Wan’Dale Robinson received six targets and zero rushing attempts in 47 snaps. An involvement rate of 12.77 percent is just not good enough for one of the top playmakers in the SEC. The game plan begins with establishing the run with Chris Rodriguez Jr. but Kentucky must get No. 1 heavily involved creating touches in both the ground and run game.
• With all the good things Kentucky’s defense has done the Wildcats have only forced three takeaways on the season and are 0-4-1 this season in the turnover margin battle after going 5-4-2 last season. Meanwhile, LSU is 3-0-1 in the turnover margin battle this season. Ball security is again a top priority for the Kentucky offense, but if the Wildcats start winning this battle then the team could really take off. A blowout could be in the cards if it happens on Saturday.