Luckett's Ballot: SEC Order of Finish

The party gets started on Monday in Downtown Dallas at the Omni Hotel but we will have to wait until Friday for votes to be counted for preseason All-SEC teams and the media poll. But I’m sick of waiting. Let’s get to the good stuff right now.

Before the action gets rolling, I’m showing you the ballot before I submit my vote for the SEC order of finish in the Lonestar State. The model is different this year with Oklahoma and Texas joining the conference along with the East and West divisions coming to an end after a long run from 1992-2023.

Someone has to lose games this fall. To complete this exercise, I went through every SEC schedule and projected a winner and loser for each game. If there were ties, I went into league tiebreaker scenarios to make this as clean as possible. My order of finish is not a power ranking but rather where I project each team to finish in the conference standings.

Enough small talk. Let’s get to the teams.

Luckett’s SEC order of finish for 2024

1.) Georgia Bulldogs

Kirby Smart has the best program in college football and that is not going to change after Nick Saban’s retirement. Carson Beck might be the clear Heisman Trophy favorite, the offensive line is elite on paper, and the defense is again top-five good with multiple All-American candidates. UGA’s long regular-season winning streak could reach 48 games this season.

2.) Texas Longhorns

Steve Sarkisian‘s program is making the SEC transition at the perfect time. Nick Saban’s retirement has opened the door for some other programs and Texas seems ready to fill the spot in Tier A this season. Quinn Ewers is back for year three at quarterback, the Horns do a great job mining the transfer portal for starting-caliber talent and good recruiting work is now paying off in the trenches. Texas is a national title contender.

3.) LSU Tigers

Brian Kelly has quietly won 20 games in two years at LSU but must replaced a lot this season. However, the schedule is manageable with four very winnable road games (South Carolina, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Florida). The Bayou Bengals get Alabama and Ole Miss at home while avoiding Georgia and Texas. New coordinator Blake Baker should help upgrade the defense in a big way and the offensive line is very good. LSU is a sneaky contender.

4.) Alabama Crimson Tide

All Kalen DeBoer has done as a head coach is win and that should continue in Tuscaloosa. Alabama’s typical top-10 defenses could take a step back but the pieces are in place for the Tide to score some points. But the schedule includes road trips to Tennessee and LSU plus a home tilt against Georgia. Multiple regular-season losses seem very likely.

5.) Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss is all-in on the 2024 season and has true College Football Playoff expectations. Falling short would be a disappointment in Oxford. The Rebels avoid Alabama but draw Georgia at home and must go to LSU. There are some landmines on the schedule but Lane Kiffin‘s program should be a favorite in six conference games.

6.) Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee is all-in on Nico Iamaleava and Josh Heupel has finished at least .500 in conference during his first three seasons on Rocky Top. However, Alabama and Georgia remain on the schedule but the Vols could be a betting favorite in every other game. Heupel has a legitimate playoff contender in 2024.

7.) Missouri Tigers

After a memorable season, Missouri now has expectations in 2024 with a good chunk of returning production plus some skill talent star power on offense. Add in a schedule that includes just one of the six teams ahead of them in these projected standings and it gives Eliah Drinkwitz‘s fourth team in Columbia a great shot at securing an at-large bid in the first 12-team playoff.

8.) Texas A&M Aggies

The Mike Elko era begins with a home game against Notre Dame along with Missouri, LSU, and Texas all making the trip to Kyle Field. However, the Aggies should have a winning road record (Florida, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Auburn) along with being a neutral site favorite over Arkansas. A&M likely won’t be a playoff contender in year one under Elko but this could be an 8-4 team that could be a playoff spoiler for another team.

9.) Auburn Tigers

Pressure is on Hugh Freeze to fix the offense in 2024. The former Ole Miss and Liberty head coach is taking over play-calling duties and appears to have some intriguing skill talent. Georgia and Alabama are still on the schedule but the Tigers could sweep the home slate (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M). A year two bump could be coming to the Plains.

10.) Kentucky Wildcats

The Wildcats could quietly have a top-five defense in the SEC and new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan should be able to give Kentucky a high floor on offense as the former Washington and Boise State play-caller inherits an improved offensive line and a good wide receivers room. Quarterback play could determine the ceiling but I’m not sure that ceiling is very high thanks to perhaps the toughest road schedule in college football (Ole Miss, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas). Kentucky is just 3-7 in its last 10 games against power conference foes at home and must get that flipped in 2024 to have a good season.

11.) Oklahoma Sooners

Brent Venables will have two new coordinators and a new starting quarterback in 2024 as Oklahoma transitions to the SEC. There are still defensive concerns hovering around this program and the Sooners no longer have overwhelming NFL skill talent. Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, and Missouri all show up on the schedule. Oklahoma plays six of the top seven projected teams in the league this season. OU could go 7-5 and have a top-20 team.

12.) Arkansas Razorbacks

Perhaps no seat in college football is hotter than Sam Pittman‘s. The fifth-year Arkansas head coach is on his third offensive coordinator in three years and must replace some star power on defense. But the Hogs could be due for some good bounces after finishing 1-5 in one-possession games last season. Arkansas avoids Alabama, Georgia, and LSU while only having three true conference road games. Pittman has a good shot at saving his job.

13.) Florida Gators

Billy Napier has posted consecutive losing seasons at Florida and a third could be on the way. No one in college football has a tougher schedule. The non-conference includes tilts with Miami, UCF, and Florida State. The Gators must go to Tennessee and Texas. The November slate includes consecutive games against Georgia, Texas, LSU, and Ole Miss. If Napier doesn’t gobble up wins early things could get ugly in Gainesville.

14.) South Carolina Gamecocks

Shane Beamer posted his first losing season in year three at South Carolina and is making a scheme shift offense with dual-threat quarterback LaNorris Sellers taking over for Spencer Rattler. The Gamecocks avoid Georgia and Texas but must go to Alabama and will likely be a home underdog against LSU, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. The Week 2 road trip to Kentucky feels like a huge swing game for the Gamecocks.

15.) Mississippi State Bulldogs

Former Ole Miss and Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby takes over in Starkville and is bringing another version of the Art Briles offense to Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are dealing with some massive roster turnover and could start double-digit transfers this season. Georgia and Texas both appear on the schedule. The ceiling is low for State but this offense will play fast and score some points.

16.) Vanderbilt Commodores

Clark Lea will be his own defensive coordinator this season while offensive coordinator Tim Beck and quarterback Diego Pavia come to Nashville from New Mexico State to install a spread offense that highly values the QB run game. The Commodores will be committed to finding success on the ground while Lea attempts to fix a bad defense. Vandy might be a double-digit underdog in five games at home. Finding their way to bowl eligibility will be very difficult.