Luckett's Bracketology: Projecting the Field of 68

The day college basketball fans have been waiting for has finally arrive. Selection Sunday means we will have brackets to fill out as one of the best postseasons in sports is just about to start. At 6:00 p.m. ET following the Big Ten Championship Game, CBS will reveal the bracket for the 2025 NCAA Tournament. It’s almost time to jump into those bracket pools and fill out 87 brackets as you attempt to win it all.

We will officially learn Kentucky’s path to the Final Four this evening. All expectations are that the Wildcats will land on the No. 3 seed line, while there will be four SEC teams on the No. 1 and No. 2 seed lines. Expect a busy day for the best conference in college basketball as they are expected to crush the record for conference bids.

There are five conference championships on the slate for Sunday but only UAB could be a bid stealer if the Blazers upset Memphis in the American Athletic Conference. I would project VCU to miss the field if they do not beat George Mason in the A-10 championship.

To celebrate the end of this year’s bracketology season, I’m publishing my own bracket projection. This is what I believe the field will look like when we get the bracket this evening. I’ve got a full seed list, the field broken down into regions, first-round sites, and a rundown of the bubble.

Let’s ride.

Seed List

Teams in bold are conference tournament champions. Everyone else receives an at-large bid.

1. Auburn (1)
2. Duke
3. Florida
4. Houston
5. Alabama (2)
6. Tennessee
7. Michigan State
8. St. John’s
9. Kentucky (3)
10. Texas Tech
11. Iowa State
12. Texas A&M
13. Arizona (4)
14. Maryland
15. Wisconsin
16. Michigan
17. Purdue (5)
18. Oregon
19. Ole Miss
20. Illinois
21. BYU (6)
22. UCLA
23. Missouri
24. Kansas
25. Clemson (7)
26. Louisville
27. Saint Mary’s
28. UConn
29. Marquette (8)
30. Memphis
31. Gonzaga
32. Mississippi State
33. Georgia (9)
34. Creighton
35. Oklahoma
36. Arkansas
37. West Virginia (10)
38. Utah State
39. New Mexico
40. Vanderbilt
41. Baylor (11)
42. San Diego State
43. Indiana
44. Texas
45. Drake
46. VCU
47. Colorado State (12)
48. UC San Diego
49. McNeese
50. Liberty
51. Yale (13)
52. High Point
53. Akron
54. Grand Canyon
55. Lipscomb (14)
56. Troy
57. UNC Wilmington
58. Montana
59. Robert Morris (15)
60. Wofford
61. Omaha
62. Bryant
63. Norfolk State (16)
64. American
65. SIU-Edwardsville
66. St. Francis (Pa.)
67. Mount St. Mary’s
68. Alabama State

The Field

Atlanta

1. Auburn (1)
2. St. John’s (8)
3. Texas Tech (10)
4. Arizona (13)
5. Illinois (20)
6. Missouri (23)
7. Clemson (25)
8. Mississippi State (32)
9. Creighton (34)
10. Vanderbilt (40)
11. VCU (46)
12. Colorado State (47)
13. Grand Canyon (54)
14. UNC Wilmington (57)
15. Robert Morris (59)
16. Mount St. Mary’s (67)/Alabama State (68)

Newark

1. Duke (2)
2. Alabama (5)
3. Iowa State (11)
4. Maryland (14)
5. Ole Miss (19)
6. UCLA (22)
7. UConn (28)
8. Gonzaga (31)
9. Georgia (33)
10. West Virginia (37)
11. Baylor (41)/Texas (44)
12. UC San Diego (48)
13. Akron (53)
14. Troy (56)
15. Bryant (62)
16. SIU-Edwardsville (65)/St. Francis (66)

Indianapolis

1. Florida (3)
2. Michigan State (7)
3. Kentucky (9)
4. Wisconsin (15)
5. Purdue (17)
6. Kansas (24)
7. Louisville (26)
8. Memphis (30)
9. Oklahoma (35)
10. Utah State (38)
11. Drake (45)
12. Liberty (50)
13. High Point (52)
14. Montana (58)
15. Wofford (60)
16. American (64)

San Francisco

1. Houston (4)
2. Tennessee (6)
3. Texas A&M (12)
4. Michigan (16)
5. Oregon (18)
6. BYU (21)
7. Saint Mary’s (27)
8. Marquette (29)
9. Arkansas (36)
10. New Mexico (39)
11. San Diego State (42)/Indiana (43)
12. McNeese (49)
13. Yale (51)
14. Lipscomb (55)
15. Omaha (61)
16. Norfolk State (63)

First Weekend Sites

Lexington	Auburn + Alabama
Raleigh	Duke + Florida
Wichita	Houston + Texas Tech
Cleveland	Tennessee + Michigan State
Providence	St. John’s + Maryland
Milwaukee	Kentucky + Iowa State
Denver	Texas A&M + Arizona
Seattle	Wisconsin + Michigan

The Bubble

— Last Four Byes: Vanderbilt, New Mexico, Utah State, West Virginia

— Last Four In: Texas, Indiana, San Diego State, Baylor

— First Four Out: North Carolina, Ohio State, Xavier, Boise State

Takeaways

— The overall No. 1 seed ended up being a very close call between Auburn and Duke since the Tigers are reeling down the stretch, but the volume of Quad 1A wins (10-6) gives the SEC champ the advantage.

— High-end wins separate Kentucky from everyone else on the No. 3 line but the total number of St. John’s wins help them rise above the Cats for the final No. 2 seed.

— Clemson and Louisville could be the most polarizing teams in this field. A ton of wins but i believe the committee will punish them for how bad the ACC was. Louisville had zero Quad 1A wins heading into the ACC Tournament. Clemson only had one top-50 NET win away from home. That will matter in seeding.

— The final seed on the bubble came down to Texas vs. North Carolina. I again think the ACC will be punished here. UNC’s Quad 3 home loss to Stanford is just something they cannot have on the resume without high-quality wins. A 5-10 Quad 1 record before the SEC Tournament for the Horns is (barely) enough to get them in but it is a very close call. The committee rewarded the SEC in the mid-season bracket reveal. I believe we will see them do the same on Sunday.

— Potential second-round opponents for Kentucky: Illinois, BYU, UCLA, Missouri, Kansas, Clemson, and Louisville.