Luckett's Locks: Building Momentum

We recorded our first winning outing of the year in Week 2 after a 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in what was a wild college football Saturday. Our noon under never really had a chance, but the after dark tickets and a double-digit road dog all cashed to get us into the green.

The ugly Week 1 is still holding us back as our overall record sits at 4-7-1 ATS after a dozen plays. The arrow is pointing up, and we have eight quarters of in-season data to add to our preseason projections. That leads to a better model and should lead to more covers.

It feels like a good time to get on a heater. Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

WKU (+6.5) at Indiana

Quietly, WKU has gone 10-1 in its last 11 games dating back to last season with a strong 8-2-1 ATS record. Tyson Helton has built something in Bowling Green, and the Tops are sticking with the Air Raid offense that was installed last season. Division II transfer Austin Reed has stepped in at quarterback, and the production (8.5 yards per attempt, 32 throws per game, 64.1% completion rate) has not stopped as the Tops are off to a 2-0 start.

Indiana has also gotten off to a fast start as the Hoosiers got some late-game heroics to upset Illinois in Week 1 before struggling with FCS Idaho last week. Missouri QB transfer Connor Bazelak (6.5 yards per attempt, 40.5 throws per game, 54.3% completion rate) and Auburn RB transfer Shaun Shivers (5.2 yards per rush on 17.5 attempts per game) have provided some chunk plays but more inefficiency for new offensive coordinator Walt Bell.

The Hoosiers have the best defense in this matchup, but it’s not by a lot. WKU appears to have the better offense. These two teams seem fairly evenly matched, but WKU is coming off an early season bye and has some promising trends. Helton owns an 8-4 ATS record as a road dog with five straight-up wins in the last three years.

Indiana is overvalued here, and the plucky road dog is nearly getting a touchdown. Take the points with the Toppers.

Purdue (+1.5) at Syracuse

After a tough home loss to Penn State to open the season, Purdue finds itself in a tricky spot heading into a road non-conference game. There are some defensive questions in West Lafayette, but the pass-heavy offense should remain solid with former walk-on Aidan O’Connell (7.4 yards per attempt, 39 throws per game, 60.3% completion rate) and Iowa transfer Charlie Jones (21 receptions, 286 yards, 4 touchdowns).

Syracuse has been one of the early season surprises after the Orange throttled Louisville in Week 1. Defensive coordinator Tony White’s 3-3 stack can be a pain to deal with, and Sean Tucker (48 rushes, 212 yards, 10 receptions, 101 receiving yards) entered the year as an All-American candidate at tailback. However, former Mississippi State transfer Garrett Shrader has been the biggest revelation. Under new offensive coordinator Robert Anae, Shrader looks much improved as a passer (11 yards per attempt, 24 throws per game, 79.2% completion rate) and is still a running threat (113 yards, 3 touchdowns).

We have seen some interesting line movement in this matchup as Syracuse is now a trendy team. But I don’t think they are the best team in this matchup. The pass-heavy attack from Purdue will take away some of the 3-3 stack’s advantages, and Shrader is due for a “come back down to earth” game after the scorching start. Jeff Brohm is an absurd 10-3-1 ATS as a road dog with seven straight-up wins.

The wrong team is favored in this Week 3 contest. Takes the points with Purdue.

Cincinnati (-22) vs. Miami (Ohio)

Despite the 1-1 start, Cincinnati still might be the team to beat in the American and the favorite to reach the New Year’s Six once again. The Bearcats clearly have a Power Five roster and looked good last time away from Nippert Stadium in a close loss to Arkansas in Week 1. Eastern Michigan transfer Ben Bryant has looked solid at quarterback, and the Bearcats could have another top-25 defense.

Miami (Ohio) was one of the contenders of the MAC in the preseason, but the RedHawks are without starting quarterback Brett Gabbert following an injury suffered late in the Week 1 loss to Kentucky. That lowers this team’s ceiling as the passing game needed to carry Chuck Martin’s team in Oxford.

Under Martin, Miami (Ohio) is 0-17 against Power Five schools and Cincinnati. The RedHawks have suffered three consecutive 20-plus point losses in this rivalry series to the Bearcats and will enter this year’s game without their best player.

All things are adding up for a Bearcats romp. Lay the three touchdowns and change with Cincinnati

Mississippi State at LSU (+2.5)

Mississippi State is off to a fast start, and Mike Leach’s third team looks like a clear top-25 unit. Will Rogers (7.8 yards per attempt, 49 throws per game, 78.6% completion rate) looks to be in complete control. Meanwhile, Zach Arnett’s 3-3 stack defense is again a pain in the rear to deal with but susceptible to chunk plays.

After a season-opening loss to Florida State, things are a bit rocky in year one for new head coach Brian Kelly at LSU. The Tigers need to figure some things out, but Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels has looked good through eight quarters, but establishing the run has been an issue. Meanwhile, the defense has left you wanting more.

On paper, Mississippi State appears to be the best team. However, LSU’s strength is in the secondary and that plays right into their hands in this matchup. Kelly’s staff will put together a good game plan as this is a great spot to back LSU as a home dog against a team they appear to have a talent advantage.

The Tigers are 5-1 ATS as a home dog with five straight-up wins since 2017. That trend holds strong as Kelly picks up a much-needed win in Death Valley. LSU has the secondary to help slow down the dink-and-dunk Air Raid attack, and Daniels makes just enough plays with his legs to hit on some big plays for the Bayou Bengals.

SMU (+2.5) at Maryland

Rhett Lashlee has taken over at SMU, and Sonny Dykes has left him a full cupboard on offense. Former Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai (10.2 yards per attempt, 31.5 throws per game, 65.1% completion rate) is on fire in an offense that loves to play with tempo. Rashee Rice (17 receptions, 298 yards, 3 touchdowns) is a nationally underrated receiver who is on his way to posting monster numbers.

Speaking of offense, Maryland is also offensive-heavy. Alabama transfer Taulia Tagovailoa is averaging 10.5 yards per attempt as the Terps legitimately have a top-10 receiver unit with Jacob Copeland, Rakim Jarrett, and Jeshaun Jones. But defense is an issue.

Both of these offenses are good, and the defenses are not. A shootout could break out in College Park in what is an evenly matched contest. After crunching the numbers, SMU is the better team, and the Mustangs are catching points.

The Ponies have covered three consecutive games against Power Five foes and pick up a huge win on Saturday behind a big game from Mordecai.

Best Bet: UCF (-7.5) at Florida Atlantic

Last week was not a good moment for Gus Malzahn. The former Auburn head coach did a very bad job managing the game and was way too willing to abandon the run. That led to a scoring drought and gave Louisville a big enough window to pull off a road upset.

Willie Taggart’s third team at Florida Atlantic is off to a solid 2-1 start with two blowout wins and one close loss on the road. The Owls have a strong rushing attack as Larry McCammon III (43 attempts, 303 yards, 7 yards per rush) is emerging as one of the top tailbacks in the C-USA.

FAU owns a big-play offense and has posted some strong numbers through three weeks under new offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon. However, this is a bad spot for the home underdog. UCF should be very motivated, and the Knights clearly have the best defense that FAU has faced to this point.

A ticked-off UCF team goes on the road and handles their business with ease as Malzahn does not go away from the rushing attack on Saturday night. The talent at UCF takes over in the second half.

UCF gets their third consecutive double-digit win in this series. Lay the points with the Gus Bus.