Luckett's Locks: Christmas Special

Bowl season will take a quick pause as the NFL takes over the football television spots on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. KSR’s Pigskin Preview got off to a hot start last week. Georgia Tech then cashed another ticket for us on Friday night at the Gasparilla Bowl with a 30-3 sprint against UCF to claim the program’s first bowl victory since 2016. Let’s keep these good times rolling.

We’ve got multiple plays for the NFL Christmas Eve and Christmas Day card. After finishing the college football season at 40-37-1 against the spread (ATS) in our traditional spread picks, we are back from more. So give us that money Santa and let’s make some plays to go along with our egg nog.

To the window!

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings Under 47.5

Detroit’s offense got cooking last week at home against Denver. Minnesota’s long streak of not giving up a touchdown ended when Jake Browning and Tee Higgins went nuclear in a wild fourth quarter/overtime loss on Saturday.

I’m thinking the truth is somewhere in the middle.

This Lions offense is not the same away from home even though they’ll be staying indoors in this NFC North contest. Minnesota must protect quarterback Nick Mullens to have a chance at a win to keep their wild card hopes alive. That means hammer the rock and pressure Jared Goff in the pocket.

This total is too high. Jump on the under.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacksonville is in a tailspin. Doug Pederson’s team has lost all three games in December after entering the month with an 8-3 record. Trevor Lawrence is battling some injuries and this offense missed wideout Christian Kirk. The AFC South race is now wide open.

The opposite is true for the Bucs. Tampa has won all three games in December to get into first-place in the NFC South at 7-7. This offense has started to get humming as Mike Evans is putting up big numbers at wideout. The Bucs return to Raymond James Stadium off consecutive road wins against the Falcons and Packers.

These teams seem headed in the wrong direction, but we’re going to ride some trends. The Jags are 6-1 ATS on the road this season and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 away from home. Baker Mayfield is 13-25-1 ATS as a favorite during his NFL career.

Jags desperately need a win. They get one on the road on Christmas Eve. Take the small road dog.

Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at Chicago Bears

The Cardinals are one of the worst teams in the NFL this season. Arizona has a very bad defense and played a good chunk of the season with a quarterback who is no longer on the roster. However, first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon has this team playing hard. The offense has been better since Kyler Murray returned.

After acquired EDGE Montez Sweat at the trade deadline, we’ve seen Chicago take a big jump on defense but there are still numerous offensive issues. The Bears now are returning home to Soldier Field after a brutal road loss to Cleveland.

Kyler Murray has been a good underdog (19-9-1 ATS on the road) during his career and this feels like too many points for a bad offense to be laying after a tough loss last week. Jump on the road dog.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)

The Raiders have had a long time off since the unbelievable beatdown they put on the Los Angeles Chargers last Thursday night. The quit factor was high at Allegiant Stadium. Christmas Day will present a different challenge in Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs ended their losing streak with a double-digit win in Foxboro against a bad New England Patriots team. Now they’ll begin a two-game homestand against the Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals.

This is a clear fade play. The Raiders offense that could not score against the Vikings is not all of a sudden a juggernaut. Kansas City plays well in a standalone home game on Christmas. We’re going to lay the big number.

Patrick Mahomes still owns the AFC West.

BONUS BETS!

Hey, it’s me, Roush. Signing Day prevented me from giving out these picks on Pigskin Preview, so I’m hopping on Luckett’s Locks with a couple of selections of my own.

Dolphins (-1.5) vs Cowboys

Roush: I love this game so much. It’s Christmas Eve and the two 10-win teams have a combined one win against opponents with a record of .500 or better. They are lighting up bad football teams but getting gut-punched by good ones.

How do you choose a side between the two? Well, I’ve seen this song and dance before in Dallas. The Cowboys look like world-beaters in October, then stink it up and choke when the games actually matter. This game matters. A win could put them in the driver’s seat for the two-seed. A loss likely sinks them into a Wild Card spot.

One other thing to consider: Mike McCarthy’s Cowboys are a completely different team away from Jerry World. They are undefeated at Jerry World, averaging 24.5 more points per game than their opponents. On the road they’ve been outscored by opponents, and their points per game drops from almost 40 to 21.7. This is a different team on the road and the Dolphins are a different team with Tyreek Hill. Let’s take Tua and Co. with a small number.

Pick: Dolphins -1.5

Bucs (-1.5) vs Jags

Roush: It was not long ago when Jacksonville fans were dreaming of the 1-seed. Now they might pass a division crown to Indianapolis. Losers of three straight, they still haven’t completely recovered from the Jake Browning game. They put on a masterclass in poor execution in the first half against Baltimore.

Here’s the thing: Baltimore and Cincinnati are good football teams. The Bucs are not.

Tampa Bay is not so different than Louisville this year. Sure, they have a decent record, but the play in the ACC of the NFL, the NFC South. I’m not giving Todd Bowles any credit for beating the Panthers, Falcons and the porous Green Bay defense. Josh Allen is going to hit Baker Mayfield five times and the Jags get right on the road before returning home to gain some end of season momentum.

Pick: Jags +1.5