Luckett's Locks: Football Weather

Never say never. We refuse that kind of talk at Luckett’s Locks.

Halloween weekend treated us well in more ways than one as five winners crossed the board last weekend. Our official season record now stands at 26-33-2 against the spread (ATS), but there is plenty of time left to get up over .500.

After surveying the board and doing our in-depth research, Luckett’s Locks has found the best plays on the card in Week 10. We’ve got nine plays for the brand this week as football weather is starting to roll into most places in college football. Now the real games start.

All teams are remembered for November. The same goes for all the gamblers.

Army vs. Air Force Under 37.5

Following a bye week, Army will return to action on Saturday with a 4-3 record. Jeff Monken’s program just could not make the plays to upset Wake Forest a couple of weeks ago as they ride a three-game losing streak despite scoring 34.6 points per game.

Air Force is also coming off a bye following a tough home loss to San Diego State. The Falcons sit at 6-2 overall riding a rushing offense that is averaging over 300 yards per game on the ground with a rushing defense that is holding foes under 100 yards per game.

The two rivals will meet at a neutral site this year playing at the home of the Texas Rangers, but the tendency remains the same. Service academies live and die with option football. Ball control will be the name of the game, but each defense knows how to slow the other side.

A quick, low-scoring game will start our Saturday with a 10:30 a.m. local kick in Texas. Take the under.

Ohio State (-15) @ Nebraska

The Buckeyes are firmly in the hunt for a national championship, and Ryan Day’s program controls their destiny. The Buckeyes have the best offense in college football, and the defense appears to be just good enough to make them a real contender.

Nebraska is the best 3-6 team in college football, but that’s about the only thing that Scott Frost has going for him. The Huskers have dropped three consecutive conference games by one possession despite a healthy yards per play advantage on the season (6.68-4.97). The writing appears to be on the wall for Frost.

How many times can Nebraska get off the mat? That’s the real question. Meanwhile, Ryan Day has been elite in this spot owning an 8-0-1 ATS record as a road favorite.

With an 11:00 a.m. local start time, this feels like the time to fade Nebraska. Ohio State is at its best on the road, and the Buckeyes need style points. The Frost tenure gets one step closer to its end on Saturday afternoon.

Lay the double-digits with Ohio State.

Tulsa @ Cincinnati (-22.5)

After making it to the AAC title game last season, Tulsa is in danger of missing a bowl game this season. The Golden Hurricane is 3-5 entering November with three road games remaining. However, this team has played a tough schedule.

Cincinnati remains undefeated but has some work left to do to get into the playoff. The Bearcats are fresh off a pair of sluggish road performances against Navy and Tulane but return home to the friend confines of Nippert Stadium this weekend with College GameDay in town.

UC is better than Tulsa in every facet and should be a motivated football team. With GameDay in town and a recent ranking that will upset a lot of people, the Bearcats will want style points on Saturday afternoon.

Cincinnati is 3-0 ATS at home against FBS competition covering spreads larger than three touchdowns. Luke Fickell’s team gets another cover on Saturday.

Lay the points with the Bearcats in a statement spot.

Oklahoma State (-3.5) @ West Virginia

Once again, Mike Gundy has his program in the hunt for a Big 12 championship. Oklahoma State sits at 7-1 and only trails Oklahoma in the league. The Pokes are very good on defense and are squeaking out just enough offense to keep winning games.

West Virginia is fresh off one of the biggest wins of the Neal Brown era after the Mountaineers knocked off ranked Iowa State at home. WVU has climbed back to .500 and will have a great chance to reach another bowl game. The Air Raid offense has seen quarterback Jarret Doege step up his game in recent weeks.

WVU’s offense picked apart TCU and Iowa State, but Oklahoma State will be a different challenge. The Cowboys have the personnel to stymie the Mountaineers and will do just enough on offense to control the game.

Lay the field goal and a hook with the Cowboys. We’re well on our way to 10-1 Oklahoma State hosting Oklahoma for the biggest Bedlam game ever.

South Alabama (+4) @ Troy

Kane Wommack has been one of the best first-year hires in college football. The 34-year-old former defensive coordinator at Indiana has quickly built a legit defense in Mobile, and offensive coordinator Major Applewhite has one of the country’s best receivers in Jalen Tolbert. Meanwhile, former South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley has been very solid for the Jags.

Meanwhile, Chip Lindsey’s seat is on fire at Troy as year three winds down. The Trojans have a strong defense with some legit dudes, but the offense has rushing issues and problems finding an answer at quarterback.

The “Battle for the Belt” will include the best two defenses in the Sun Belt, and scoring points could be difficult on Saturday afternoon. However, South Alabama has the better quarterback, coaching staff, and is getting points.

Take the road dog.

Marshall (-1.5) @ Florida Atlantic

Marshall is 5-3 in year one under former Alabama assistant coach Charles Huff and the Thundering Herd is C-USA’s most well-rounded team. Rasheen Ali is one of the best tailbacks in the Group of Five, and Grant Wells has been really good at quarterback when not throwing interceptions. Meanwhile, the defense has been strong for most of the season.

Willie Taggart has FAU in contention in year two as the Owls continue to win football games. Miami transfer N’Kosi Perry is giving the offense some solid quarterback play and new defensive coordinator Mike Stoops has done a good job in year one.

The winner will take over first place in the C-USA East. Both FAU and Marshall are two of the best teams in the conference, but the Thundering Herd is better on both sides of the football.

Lay the small number with the road favorite.

Coastal Carolina (-19.5) @ Georgia Southern

Coastal Carolina looked like a legit contender to Cincinnati as the top Group of Five team in college football until Appalachian State happened. The Chants were upset on the road and did not have a great performance at home against Troy. Despite all that, the Chants have one of the better defenses in the Sun Belt and lead college football in yards per play offense.

The next era of Georgia Southern football has already begun after the Eagles introduced former USC head coach Clay Helton as the new leader of the program earlier this week. However, the team must finish out the season. Defensively, there are major issues as the Eagles have lost 6 of 7.

Coastal had the benefit of a long week after back-to-back weekday games against App State and Troy. The Chants should be fresh, and the offense will be able to feast against a bad Georgia Southern defense. Everyone in Statesboro has their eyes focused on the future. That means good things for the road favorite.

Lay the points with Coastal Carolina.

Texas @ Iowa State Over 60

Steve Sarkisian is going through a disappointing first season in Austin. There is no other way to spin it. The Longhorns have switched quarterbacks, blown multiple second half leads, and have another bad defense. Texas is 4-4 entering November despite putting up 6.73 yards per play on offense.

Speaking of disappointing seasons, Iowa State entered the year with playoff aspirations. Following their third upset loss of the season, the Cyclones could be headed to a 7-5 season. The overall numbers are good, but Iowa State’s defense is giving up points and the offense hasn’t taken a step forward.

Offenses seem to have figured out the hybrid dime defense that Iowa State has had a lot of success with and that has led to some issues. Texas will be able to put up some points while Iowa State will have success against a bad Lonhorn unit.

Play the over.

Best Bet: Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-2.5)

The Demon Deacons are undefeated and in a Power Five conference but were ranked just No. 9 overall by the College Football Playoff committee. The offense has been electric for Dave Clawson’s program in the 8-0 start, but opposing offenses are putting up nearly six yards per play.

Over in Chapel Hill, the Tar Heels have been one of the biggest disappointments in the sport. UNC is just 4-4 this season with multiple losses as a favorite despite having one of the top quarterbacks in college football. Like Wake Forest, this defense is struggling with opponents averaging 30.8 points per game.

Ranked Wake Forest travels to play unranked North Carolina in a non-conference game. Yes, you read that right. The two ACC schools don’t play enough in conference play so they scheduled a non-conference series. However, the unranked team is favored for a reason.

There will be a shootout in the noon window, but UNC gets a win to ruin Wake’s playoff chances and help salvage a bad season.

Lay the points with the Heels.

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