Luckett's Locks: Resiliency and Grit

This college football season has put Luckett’s Locks through the wringer. After a 2-4-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 5, our season record falls to 12-19-2 on the season. We are still looking for our first winning weekend heading into Week 6.

That is not good, but we’re not going down without a fight.

Our best bests are 0-4-1 ATS as we are just not seeing the ball at all. However, we are not quitters here at Luckett’s Locks. We’re diving back into the game for Week 6 as the law of averages will come back the other way.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Oklahoma (-3) @ Texas

Lincoln Riley’s team is quietly 5-0 and a legitimate playoff contender, but no one is talking about the Sooners. Oklahoma has won four games by one possession as the offense in Norman is having some struggles. However, the defense is playing near a top-25 level, and Spencer Rattler showed some promising signs last week in a road win over Kansas State.

Following an embarrassing road loss to Arkansas, first-year head coach Steve Sarkisian made a change at quarterback, and Casey Thompson has delivered. The Longhorns are powered by star sophomore tailback Bijan Robinson (652 yards, 7 touchdowns) while the defense is going through some growing pains.

Oklahoma has the better roster and better defense in this matchup. Lincoln Riley’s offense has had issues running the football, but their defense is good enough to slow Robinson. On a neutral field, Oklahoma is the better team.

Lay the field goal and take the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl.

Michigan State @ Rutgers (+5.5)

Mel Tucker’s second team at Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in college football. The Spartans have two Power Five wins away from home, and Michigan State is 5-0 for the first time since the College Football Playoff team of 2015. The transfer portal has made a big impact on the Spartans as former Wake Forest tailback Kenneth Walker III leads the country in rushing yards.

Despite back-to-back losses to Michigan and Ohio State, positive things are still happening for Greg Schiano’s program. Rutgers is 3-2 this season and has a defense that is doing some good things. Meanwhile, the offense is going through some issues as the rushing attack has been inefficient.

For the first time since 2019, Michigan State will be a road favorite. The Spartans have their eyes on some bigger fish, and this could be a classic look-ahead spot despite having lost to Rutgers in East Lansing last season.

Schiano will have his guys ready to roll in a winnable spot. Take the home dog in New Jersey.

Virginia (+2.5) @ Louisville

In year six with Bronco Mendenhall, Virginia sits at 3-2 and is coming off a monster road win over Miami last Thursday. Brennan Armstrong is throwing for 394.6 yards per game as the Hoos have a top-15 yards per play offense. Meanwhile, Virginia ranks 13th in the ACC in yards per play defense.

And just like that 👉 𝙃𝙊𝙊𝙎 𝙇𝙀𝘼𝘿!

Billy Kemp the 21-yard TD catch from Brennan Armstrong!

📺: @accnetwork#GoHoos | #THEStandard pic.twitter.com/RVgrk3udLd

— Virginia Football (@UVAFootball) September 19, 2021

Louisville bounced back from the rough start to the season with three consecutive wins before losing a close one to Wake Forest on the road last Saturday. Redshirt senior quarterback Malik Cunningham has accounted for 17 touchdowns in five games and is carrying this Louisville offense. Meanwhile, the defense is currently last in the ACC and 108th nationally in yards per play allowed.

The game will be a matchup of two of the ACC’s best quarterbacks going against two of the ACC’s worst defenses. Points will be scored at Cardinal Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Virginia has a more efficient and explosive passing attack while both teams struggle to run the ball with their tailbacks. That plus the long week gives UVa the advantage. Take the points in the even matchup and enjoy some basketball on grass.

Wake Forest @ Syracuse (+6)

Wake Forest is back in the top 25 following a 5-0 start as the Deacs knocked off Florida State, Virginia, and Louisville in consecutive weeks. Redshirt senior quarterback Sam Hartman has been efficient (63.8% completion rate, 8.5 yards per attempt) while the defense has been opportunistic leading the ACC in takeaways (13) by a wide margin.

Quietly, Dino Babers is leading a resurgence in Central New York as the Orange are off to a 3-2 start with an impressive home win over Liberty. Syracuse utilizes a 3-3-5 stack on defense, and it’s giving teams some issues. The Orange rank second in the ACC and 17th nationally in yards per play defense (4.47).

Wake Forest has been winning games thanks to turnover margin, and Syracuse will be their biggest challenge to date thanks to the Orange defense. After three big wins, it’s time to fade the Deacs before Wake Forest enters the bye week.

Take the home dog in the Carrier Dome.

Utah (+3) @ USC

Fresh off a bye week, Utah sits at 2-2 but is unblemished in Pac-12 play. If Kyle Whittingham’s club is going to make another run at a division crown, it has to start now. The Utes appear to have the best defense in the conference as the offense is trying to figure things out.

Stuff is a mess out at USC as the Trojans hammered Colorado on the road following a home loss to Oregon State. USC is 2-2 in conference play with a good offense, but the defense has issues.

The bye week gave Utah time to put a game plan together, and the matchup could favor the Utes on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Utah is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a road dog.

Give us the points as Utah picks up a big win.

Best Bet: South Carolina @ Tennessee Under 56.5

The Gamecocks are off to a 3-2 start under first-year head coach Shane Beamer, but it has not been because of the offense. South Carolina cannot run the ball and has the worst unit in the SEC outside of Vanderbilt. However, the defense is balling and ranks third nationally in takeaways (14).

Tennessee is coming off a huge performance where the Vols trounced Missouri on the road with big play after big play. Junior college transfer Tiyon Evans is emerging as one of the top tailbacks in the SEC, and Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker has settled things at quarterback. Meanwhile, the defense is doing just enough plays to build momentum on Rocky Top.

Tiyon Evans is going OFF against Mizzou so far 🔥

🟠 5 carries

🟠 118 yards

🟠 3 TDs

(via @SECNetwork)

pic.twitter.com/czMZRCYPMh

— 247Sports (@247Sports) October 2, 2021

Under defensive coordinator Clayton White, South Carolina will get into a deep zone and force Tennessee to dink-and-dunk their way down the field. Meanwhile, South Carolina has major issues on offense. With a noon kickoff, this is total under territory.

The Gamecocks keep it close for most of the game, and that means a lack of points. Luckett’s Locks is riding with the under.