Luckett's Locks: Conference races begin

No one cares about being close when it comes to making picks against the spread (ATS). Last week was a tough one for Luckett’s Locks.

We finished the week at 3-3 overall but a mind-blowing last-second beat in Purdue-Syracuse, being a point shy in Cincinnati-Miami (Ohio), and an SMU offense that just couldn’t finish some important fourth quarter scoring opportunities against Maryland kept us from a great weekend. But those are the breaks sometimes. Hopefully, the close calls turn into wins if we can keep seeing the ball well.

We’ll enter Week 4 with a 7-10-1 ATS record with six more picks again for Saturday. With numerous conference matchups on the card, there is real value to be found as overreactions are still taking place.

Let’s get to the window.

Clemson at Wake Forest Over 55.5

Don’t look now, but it appears that Clemson has made some real strides on offense under new play-caller Brandon Streeter. It’s mostly due to the rushing attack. The Tigers rank No. 15 in rushing success rate (52.8%), according to CFB Graphs, with former blue-chipper Will Shipley leading the way at 7.8 yards per rush and six touchdowns on 32 attempts. DJ Uiagalelei has made some strides but connecting on vertical shots is still an issue. Meanwhile, the defense looks like a top-10 unit again.

Wake Forest survived a scare against Liberty last week to remain undefeated through three games to set up this monster divisional clash in the ACC. The offense is having running game issues, but Sam Hartman is back at quarterback putting up some big numbers (312.5 passing yards per game) while the defense has made some strides with new play-caller Brad Lambert.

When digging into this matchup, it’s going to be one of the worst rushing offenses (Wake ranks No. 128 in offensive rushing success rate) against one of the best rushing defenses (Clemson ranks No. 18 in defensive rushing success rate). That means a lot of passes which means more plays. On the other side, this Clemson offense had its best performance of the year against Wake Forest last year and is running the ball well to open up play-action opportunities for Uiagalelei.

Clemson’s pass defense has been leaky to this point so Hartman should be able to have success. Meanwhile, Clemson matches up well with Wake Forest’s defensive personnel. We could see a borderline shootout breakout in Winston-Salem with both teams pushing the 30-point threshold.

Let’s jump on the short total and play our first over of the season.

Notre Dame (+2) at North Carolina

Marcus Freeman has coached four games at Notre Dame and only has one win. That came last week as the Irish squeaked out a home victory over California, but it was much needed. The offense is still a work in progress with backup quarterback Drew Pyne as this unit ranks No. 114 in points per drive (1.56).

North Carolina is off to a 3-0 start and fresh off an early season bye. Redshirt freshman Drake Maye has been a revelation to this point, and the former top-50 recruit is one of the best quarterbacks in college football. The former Alabama commit is pacing an offensive attack that is putting up 51.3 points per game.

When digging into this matchup, some things are breaking Notre Dame’s way. The Irish have the top defense that Maye has seen to this point ranking No. 25 in passing success rate allowed (33.3%). Freeman’s defense will pose some problems to North Carolina’s tempo attack. On the other side, North Carolina has been very bad on defense. This should be a get-right game for an Irish offense that has some NFL personnel.

These two programs have met in each of the last two seasons with Notre Dame covering twice as a small favorite. Freeman gets his first big win at Notre Dame in Chapel Hill as the Irish get another cover.

Take the points.

Texas (-7) at Texas Tech

Texas entered a huge letdown spot at home last week, but the Longhorns were able to hit the gas to pull away from a pesky UTSA team. Steve Sarkisian’s program will now make the trip to West Texas. Even with Hudson Card replacing Quinn Ewers, the passing game has continued to hum, and defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski has seen his group make some big strides in year two.

Texas Tech is off to a 2-1 start under new head coach Joey McGuire, and the Red Raiders are playing some very good defense to this point in the season under Tim DeRuyter. Tech ranks No. 22 in defensive success rate (32.5%) having already faced quality offenses with good quarterbacks at Houston and NC State.

In many ways, this is a statement game for Sarkisian. The Longhorns are looking to take the next step as a program and that means contending for a conference crown. In the first league game of the season, look for Texas to come out firing on all cylinders against an in-state program they’ve beaten four times in a row. The Horns get a big day from Bijan Robinson.

Lay the touchdown with the burnt orange.

Arizona at California (-3)

There are a lot of good things happening for Arizona football. After a tough year one under Jedd Fisch, recruiting got rolling in the offseason, and the Wildcats have picked up huge wins over San Diego State and North Dakota State to start the season. UTEP transfer Jacob Cowing (21 receptions, 5 touchdowns) has been a star at wideout as this program has a fighting chance to get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2017 after the 2-1 start.

Justin Wilcox is in year six at California, and offense is still an issue. The Golden Bears are No. 110 in offensive success rate (35.2%) as Purdue quarterback transfer Jack Plummer is putting up just 6.6 yards per attempt, and the ground game is averaging only 3.6 yards per rush. However, this program can still play some defense.

When diving into this matchup, both offenses have been bad to start the season with a pair of transfer quarterbacks and an iffy ground attack. Cal has the best unit in the matchup with its top-25 defense and is playing at home. That gives the home team the edge on homecoming in Berkeley.

Lay the field goal in a revenge spot as Cal gets payback from a bad loss last season in Tucson. The home team scores some points on Saturday to get an early conference win.

Marshall (-3) at Troy

After a huge win in South Bend against Notre Dame, the Thundering Herd laid a big egg dropping a road game to Bowling Green. You just knew a letdown performance was coming from Marshall. However, things are going well in year two for head coach Charles Huff as the offense is doing some really good things rushing for 263.3 yards per game powered by Florida State transfer Khalan Laborn (6.3 yards per rush on 22.3 attempts per game) and getting efficient quarterback play (8.5 yards per attempt on a 77.8% completion rate) from Texas Tech transfer Henry Colombi.

Down in Troy, new head coach Jon Sumrall has quite the challenge this week. The Trojans suffered a brutal road loss to App State on a wild Hail Mary play to end the game. Gunnar Watson is providing good QB play but Troy’s defense has had issues slowing down a pair of good offenses — Ole Miss and App State — this year.

In the first Sun Belt meeting between these two programs, Marshall has a lot going for them. The Herd is in a motivation spot while it could be hard for Troy to get off the deck. An efficient Marshall offense should have its way with Troy on the road.

Lay the points with a small conference road favorite.

Best Bet: Baylor (+2.5) at Iowa State

After being picked to win the Big 12 in the preseason, Baylor is off to a 2-1 start under third-year head coach Dave Aranda. The Bears aren’t producing many explosive passes, but the ground game has been excellent for this wide zone scheme. True freshman tailback Richard Reese is a name to monitor moving forward. As the offense transitions, the defense again looks like a top-20 unit.

Iowa State is off to a quick 3-0 start under third-year head coach Matt Campbell who was finally able to get a rivalry win over Iowa. Expectations are high for redshirt sophomore Hunter Dekkers at quarterback, and wideout Xavier Hutchinson is an All-American candidate. Once again, the three-safety defense in Ames is getting the job done as the Cyclones are allowing just 9.0 points per game on 4.0 yards per play.

The Iowa State defense might be for real, but Baylor’s balance should lead to some success. Meanwhile, this Iowa State offense struggled against Iowa, and Baylor has the personnel to present problems. The wrong team is favored in this matchup.

Iowa State is getting too much credit for beating Iowa and Baylor is being slighted for losing a road game to BYU in overtime. The Bears were higher in the preseason and are still higher in my power rankings. The road team has a great trend going in this series with a 4-0 ATS mark in the last four as a dog with two outright wins.

Take the points as Baylor gets a big road win to start conference play.