Luckett's Locks: Dogs and Unders

Well, last week stunk. Let’s try to not do that again.

We found ourselves on the wrong side of some bad beats as Miami blew a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter, and Ole Miss was one point away from covering due to Auburn’s rushing attack going wild. Meanwhile, a late touchdown drive by Memphis with just over a minute left forced overtime and cost us a winning under ticket.

It’s been that kind of year as we finished with our second 1-5 against the spread (ATS) weekend on the season to drop our yearly mark to 16-25-1. Back to the drawing board we go.

We spent some hours in the lab this week and are going back to the old faithful — dogs and unders. Let’s get to the window with the six best plays on the card.

Cincinnati at SMU Under 60

Cincinnati is looking for a third league title in the American Athletic Conference, and the Bearcats are off to a good start. Luke Fickell’s team has won five games in a row since the season-opening loss to Arkansas behind a stingy defense and an offense without any big strengths but no obvious weaknesses.

SMU is off to a 3-3 start under new head coach Rhett Lashlee as the Mustangs have dropped all three games played against top-30 competition this season. SMU has been pretty bad on defense, but a good offense has created enough scoring opportunities to allow this tempo attack to consistently score.

In a matchup where neither offense has been great, it feels like a shootout is unlikely. Cincinnati’s defense is the best unit in this matchup and should match up well with SMU’s attack. The Bearcats could have a big day on offense, but this isn’t a football team built to drop a bunch of big offensive numbers.

The trends are on our side as this series is 6-0 to the under in the last six meetings and Fickell is 20-9 to the under in conference games. It’s hard to envision both of these teams getting into the 30s.

Let’s jump on this under in the noon window.

Syracuse (+14) at Clemson

The biggest game of the Dino Babers era has arrived. After entering the season on the hot seat, the Orange are 6-0 and ranked inside the top 15 playing Clemson in what is the de facto ACC Atlantic championship game in Death Valley. Cuse got to this point by riding a legit top-20 offense with balance and a defense that has been great against the pass.

In a bounce-back year at Clemson, Dabo Swinney has the Tigers back in the College Football Playoff picture after the 7-0 start. Under new offensive coordinator Brandon Streeter, there have been real strides made as the Tigers have legit balance and are awesome in the red zone. On defense, Clemson isn’t a dominant unit but does not have many weaknesses.

In a game with two offenses that have great balance, we should not expect many punts. The game will be won with what these teams do with scoring opportunities. Clemson has been great in the red zone, but Syracuse is also great at finishing drives on both sides of the ball. That gives the road team a great chance.

Expect Syracuse to bring its A-game to Clemson as the Tigers play an eighth straight game without a bye. All of that should add up to equal a great upset opportunity for Syracuse.

We’re taking the double digits as Syracuse has a real shot at the outright upset as long as Clemson doesn’t run wild against what has been an iffy Orange run defense.

Eastern Michigan (+2.5) at Ball State

After a big road win in a rivalry game against Western Michigan, Eastern Michigan returned to Ypsilanti last week and was rocked by Northern Illinois who finally welcomed star quarterback Rocky Lombardi back into the lineup. The Eagles have a long way to go in the division race now after a 1-2 start in conference play. However, EMU has a rock-solid rushing attack and has been great at finishing drives with points on offense. Unfortunately, the defense has given up a bunch of big plays.

In year seven, Mike Neu again has Ball State in the mix for a MAC title. The Cardinals are getting a lot of production from RB1 Carson Steele (789 yards, 24 attempts per game), but the passing game has very little bite. The defense is in better shape in Muncie, but not by much, as three consecutive one-score wins have Ball State in the hunt.

Eastern Michigan’s offense is the best unit in this game as both defenses have issues in this MAC West contest. Under Chris Creighton, the Eagles have been one of the best road underdogs in college football with a 22-6 ATS record since 2016.

Now we get EMU off a loss and playing a team they have an on-paper advantage, but they are getting points? Let’s ride this MACtion underdog train.

UCLA (+6) at Oregon

Chip Kelly is returning to Oregon for the third time since taking over at UCLA, and this time the famous play-caller has a top-10 offense. The running game starts everything, but the Bruins have a passing attack that ranks No. 2 in success rate, per CFB-Graphs. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is quietly a legit Heisman Trophy contender pacing an offense that is scoring 41.5 points per game. The defense has some issues as the Bruins will need to win shootouts against good competition.

Kelly’s former school is also offense-heavy in 2022. New offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham and Auburn QB transfer Bo Nix have been a great fit at Oregon for new head coach Dan Lanning. The Ducks are No. 2 overall in offensive success rate and inside the top 10 in passing EPA and rushing EPA. This is an efficient attack that is becoming more explosive each week. Unfortunately, the defense has been very bad against the pass.

All signs point to a shootout at Autzen Stadium as both defenses will have difficulty getting stops against offenses that both rank inside the top three in points per drive. Expect a boatload of passing yards in a game that will come down to the wire.

Give us the top-10 offense that is catching points as UCLA might have the better defense. Chip Kelly has a great shot at getting another win in Eugene.

Pittsburgh (+2.5) at Louisville

Pittsburgh took a bad home loss to Georgia Tech, but Pat Narduzzi still might have the best team in the ACC Coastal. The Panthers have a solid rushing attack paced by the explosive Israel Abanikanda and a defense that is electric against the pass and ranks inside the top 25 in points per drive.

Scott Satterfield is still very much on the hot season, but a home win over Pittsburgh could help cool some things on a big recruiting weekend at Cardinal Stadium. The offense has a lot of issues but should get star quarterback Malik Cunningham this week. The defense has had some bad moments but is doing positive things with outstanding performances against UCF, USF, and Virginia. The Cards are solid in multiple areas and do a great job getting off the field on third down.

Pitt’s defense should be a tough challenge for a Louisville offense that struggles to do anything consistently outside of runs from Cunningham. The Panthers appear to have the size, power, and speed in the front seven to make the dual-threat quarterback play from the pocket. Meanwhile, Pitt’s rushing attack has an edge over the Louisville defense as Abanikanda is on his way to All-ACC honors.

Pat Narduzzi is 16-8 as a road underdog at Pitt and is catching points with the better team. We’ll take the value here with the Panthers.

Best Bet: Mississippi State at Alabama Under 61

In the least surprising news ever, a Mike Leach team is very much a Mike Leach team. Mississippi State is efficient (No. 21 in offensive success rate) but not super explosive (No. 55 in 20+ yard plays). The dink-and-dunk passing attack thrives if Will Rogers can establish a rhythm, but we’ve seen both LSU and Kentucky take that away. On defense, the Bulldogs are strong against the pass (No. 16 success rate, No. 18 EPA) but very leaky against the run (No. 86 success rate, No. 91 EPA).

Alabama is fresh off a loss to Tennessee in heartbreaking fashion and must get off the mat to face a ranked Mississippi State squad on Saturday night. Bryce Young is ridiculous once again, but this isn’t the typical Bama offense. The Tide might be just above average at wide receiver, and none of their skill talent players scare you outside of tailback Jahmyr Gibbs. The Tide have a top-15 offense, but most of it is due to Young’s insane playmaking. On the other side, this defense has feasted against some bad competition, but Arkansas, Texas, Texas A&M, and Tennessee found ways to move the football and score points against Pete Golding’s defense. Alabama is not great at any one thing and ranks No. 42 in defensive success rate. That is a surprise.

The best thing for Alabama is they’re playing an offense they’ve had a lot of success against. In two games, Leach’s Air Raid has averaged under 4.2 yards per play in both meetings with Golding’s defense as Rogers has had a hard time establishing a rhythm. Meanwhile, a good Mississippi State pass defense led by star cornerback Emmanuel Forbes could give this Alabama passing attack some issues.

The series between these SEC West foes is 13-2-1 to the under in the last 16 meetings and that should hit again on Saturday night. State will find it difficult to string together scoring drives, and Alabama won’t be able to bludgeon a solid State defense with big plays consistently.

Don’t be surprised if this game is close and somewhat low scoring. Let’s jump on the under.