Luckett's Locks: Fresh Start

For the third consecutive season, Luckett’s Locks is returning to provide some weekly against the spread (ATS) picks. We’re hoping this year goes better than last.

For the entire 2021 campaign, we finished a woeful 42-52-2 ATS in what was a very long year. We are now turning the page and switching up the format this season.

Instead of going crazy and unloading on the board, we will attempt to have some discipline this season and stick with just six picks per week. KSR’s “Cover 3” YouTube show will show my best bets of the week on Thursday, but three bets are just never enough?

Luckett’s Locks is back in the six-pack game, and we’re ready to get things cranked up as we get a jam-packed slate on Saturday with two leftover games on Sunday and Monday. Let the festivities begin. Please gamble responsibly.

North Carolina (+1.5) at App State

After some surprising late movement heading into Friday morning, App State has emerged as a small home favorite in a fun Group of Five vs. Power Five in-state matchup. But we still like the team with more talent in this nooner.

North Carolina — per recruiting rankings — has a borderline top-15 roster in college football and redshirt freshman Drake Maye looked good at quarterback last week. The Heels have defensive issues that new coordinator Gene Chizik is attempting to correct, but the talent gap is real in this matchup.

Former Clemson and Duke quarterback Chase Brice is in year two at App State but head coach Shawn Clark is on his third offensive coordinator in three seasons as the Mountaineers lost their top three receivers leaving 172 receptions, 2,546 yards, and 20 touchdowns for a young position group to replace.

App State’s strong outside zone rushing attack will challenge North Carolina, but the ACC program will benefit from a Week Zero game and should have motivation on their side after this game was projected so close during the week.

North Carolina goes on the road and wins straight up.

Houston (-4) at UTSA

Dana Holgorsen is in year four at Houston, and the former West Virginia head coach was able to have his breakthrough season last year winning 12 games and playing for an American title. The Cougars bring back star quarterback Clayton Tune, NFL wide receiver prospect Tank Dell, and kept defensive coordinator Doug Belk in town despite some big Power Five pursuits. Houston has a great chance at a league title and New Year’s Sixth berth in 2022.

But there is a tricky road game to begin the season.

UTSA won 12 games last season under head coach Jeff Traylor bringing home a C-USA title after a 10-0 start. Frank Harris is back at quarterback after accounting for 33 total touchdowns. Expectations are high Roadrunners, and there will be a wild atmosphere on Saturday afternoon in the Alamodome.

Once again, we’re rolling with the road team in an intriguing in-state matchup. Houston owns the better quarterback and receiver duo in this matchup. Meanwhile, Belk goes head-to-head with a pair of new co-coordinators on the UTSA sideline after Barry Lunney Jr. left for Illinois.

Lay the points with the small road favorite.

Florida Atlantic (-4.5) at Ohio

After being on the wrong side last week, I’m taking a different look at Florida Atlantic. New offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon had his group looking explosive in a season-opening conference win over Charlotte, and Todd Orlando was an excellent hire by Willie Taggart who is now in year three at FAU. Quietly, Taggart has built a very strong staff.

Tim Albin returns to Ohio for year two after being promoted late as the successor to Frank Solich prior to last season. Things got off the rails for the Bobcats last season, but Albin did make some coaching staff changes as this program is looking for some more success with nine returning starters on defense.

To put it bluntly, I project FAU to be among those competing for a C-USA title and for Ohio to be at the bottom of the MAC. Therefore, we’re getting a quality price on the road with the better team.

Lay the points with FAU as Taggart is looking for his breakthrough season.

Louisville at Syracuse Over 57

Our first total play will occur in a huge conference game for a pair of ACC Atlantic teams in The Dome. We’re calling for a shootout.

Scott Satterfield and Malik Cunningham are back for year four together after the dual-threat quarterback announced a return for his super senior season following a 39-touchdown campaign in 2021. The Cards are re-tooling at receiver but should have a very good offensive line while Tennessee transfer Tiyon Evans could be a difference-maker at tailback. There are still big defensive questions surrounding Bryan Brown’s unit despite some heavy transfer portal work in the offseason.

Dino Babers is entering a hot seat season at Syracuse and is resetting on offense. Former BYU and Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae takes over after putting together some fun and creative offenses in Charlottesville. Sean Tucker is an All-American candidate at tailback, and former Mississippi State transfer Garrett Shrader could be an intriguing piece for Anae to tinker with as a running quarterback. Syracuse has a solid offensive line and a 3-3-5 defense that will take chances, but open up the door to explosive plays.

Louisville has consistently been one of the most explosive offenses in college football and I don’t see that changing this year. However, a new look Syracuse offense in a big game could get a Louisville defense with some overall talent issues some problems. I think we see a close game with some fireworks in this ACC opener with the first team in the mid-30s emerging as the winner.

Let’s jump on this over.

Boise State (+2.5) at Oregon State

Last year did not go well for new head coach Andy Avalos in his head coaching debut. The former defensive coordinator at Boise State and Oregon saw his first offense struggle as the Broncos finished 0-3 in one-score games on their way to a disappointing 7-5 finish. However, quarterback Hank Bachmeier returns as do 16 other starters. The defense should again be top-25 caliber.

Jonathan Smith has done a great rebuilding job at Oregon State as the Beavers finally made it back to a bowl game in 2021. OSU gets 15 starters back and is hoping for a jump from the defense under a new coordinator who inherits a large amount of returning production. Unfortunately, this is one of the least talented rosters in the Power Five so development is crucial in Corvallis.

The better roster with the better quarterback and superior defense is catching points in this matchup. Quietly, this is a big game for Avalos as he needs to prove last year was a fluke. The Broncos have a lot of value in Week 1’s after dark window.

Take the points as Boise State gets a huge win to begin the season.

Best Bet: Florida State vs. LSU (-3)

Things are going to get wild down in New Orleans on Labor Day even when the Bayou Bengals roll into town. How could we stay away from this one?

The Brian Kelly era is set to get started for LSU as this program will begin the year with a bunch of transfer starters. However, there is still the typical blue-chip talent from Louisiana on the roster led by star receiver Kayshon Boutte. Under Kelly, LSU will be organized and will have good game plans consistently. That will be a change, and it begins on Saturday night.

Florida State will take the field with third-year head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles got off to a good start with a dominant win over FCS Duquesne in Week Zero. However, most of that damage was done on the ground. Don’t put too much stock into that as this is a program still dealing with legitimate offensive line issues. FSU should field a good defense this season and has some young talent rising on the roster.

It’s LSU at night in Louisiana when the Tigers have the better roster. Don’t overthink this. Kelly has familiarity with FSU having faced the ACC program in the opener last season. Notre Dame won 40 consecutive games under Kelly as a favorite, and that trend will continue at LSU.

Lay the cheap price with LSU on Sunday night.