Luckett's Locks: Keep Swinging

We’re still looking for our first winning weekend here at Luckett’s Locks. However, October provides opportunities.

After a couple of late Pac-12 road dogs covered for us to close Week 4, our season tally sits at 10-15-1 against the spread (ATS) heading into Week 5. Thankfully, the card is bountiful this week.

After crunching the numbers and matchups, we have found some very good plays. Now let’s get to cover town.

Western Michigan @ Buffalo (+7)

Heading into conference play, Tim Lester’s fifth squad at Western Michigan might be the MAC favorite. The Broncos are on a three-game winning streak with a huge road victory over Pittsburgh and a nice home win against San Jose State. Kaleb Eleby is one of the best quarterbacks in the Group of Five (62% completion rate, 7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions) and the defense has been terrific.

It’s been an up-and-down debut year for first-year head coach Maurice Linguist as the Bulls are 2-2 with a blowout loss to Nebraska. However, Buffalo played ranked Coastal Carolina very tough at home before squeaking out a road win over Old Dominion.

Despite the win over Pittsburgh, this appears to be an evenly matched contest between two conference foes. So give us the points.

Buffalo is 24-6-1 ATS in their last 31 home games to go along with an 11-3 mark as a home dog. Take us home, Bulls.

Eastern Michigan (+1.5) @ Northern Illinois

Chris Creighton is in his eighth season in Ypsilanti, and EMU is off to a hot 3-1 start. The Eagles are fresh off a huge 59-21 win over Texas State at home, and Cincinnati transfer Ben Bryant is putting up 9.5 yards per attempt at quarterback. Eastern Michigan looks like a potential contender in the MAC West.

Third-year head coach Thomas Hammock entered a must-win year in 2021, and so far, NIU is off to a good start. The Huskies are 2-2 with a road win over Georgia Tech and a close home loss to a good Wyoming team. The rushing attack has led the way as this offense is averaging 215 yards per game on the ground against some good defenses.

NIU currently leads the MAC in yards per play offense, but Michigan State transfer Rocky Lombardi has been turnover prone at quarterback. The Eagles are 19-4 ATS as a road dog as they usually find a way to get it done away from home.

Give us EMU and the points always.

Oklahoma @ Kansas State (+11.5)

Oklahoma is 4-0, but there are a lot of questions surrounding Lincoln Riley’s fifth team in Norman. The Sooners have had three one-possession games, and the offense ranks middle of the pack in yards per play offense in the Big 12. Thankfully, defensive coordinator Alex Grinch has turned around his unit as the Sooners appear to have a top-25 defense.

Kansas State is off to a 3-1 start, but the Wildcats were thumped last week in Stillwater after making a top 25 appearance. This is an offense that leans on star tailback Deuce Vaughn heavily in both the run and pass game.

We’re jumping on the fade Oklahoma wagon, but this is mainly a strong trend play for Luckett’s Locks. K-State is 14-4 ATS as a home dog since 2013 with an upset win over Nevada this season. Meanwhile, head coach Chris Klieman is 2-0 against the Sooners since joining the Big 12.

The Wildcats will deliver their A-game and have Oklahoma in a dogfight on Saturday afternoon.

Boston College (+15) @ Clemson

Jeff Hafley is 10-5 through 15 games at Boston College, and the former Ohio State defensive coordinator is a rising star in college football coaching. The Eagles are playing better defense this season, and this offense responded with a strong performance in the win over Missouri after losing star quarterback Phil Jurkovec for the season.

Things are a mess at Clemson. The Tigers rank dead last in yards per play offense in the ACC as star quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei is riding the struggle bus. The Tigers cannot run the football and are currently being bit by the injury bug.

This is just way too many points in this spot. Boston College has the defense that will force Clemson into another slugfest and a heavy run play rate on offense that will make that clock move fast.

BC is 13-4-1 ATS as a road dog since 2013 and keeps this one close throughout in Death Valley.

Northwestern (+11.5) @ Nebraska

Northwestern is off to a 2-2 start in 2021, but the defending Big Ten West champion is doing it with the offense this season. The Wildcats have a potent ground game led by sophomore tailback Evan Hull. Pat Fitzgerald’s team will look to shrink the game and protect their defense.

Once again, Nebraska cannot win close games under Scott Frost as the Huskers are 0-3 in one-possession road games this season following tough losses to Oklahoma and Michigan State. Nebraska returns home this Saturday night as quarterback Adrian Martinez is putting up some big numbers as the veteran leads the team in both rushing and passing.

Northwestern is 12-2 ATS as a road dog in the last five seasons, and this is a lot of points for Nebraska to cover in a conference matchup. The Wildcats are usually good at keeping it close, and that should happen in Lincoln.

Getting Northwestern with points will always be a smart play at Luckett’s Locks.

WKU (+11) @ Michigan State

Tyson Helton’s squad is just 1-2, but things haven’t been boring in Bowling Green. The Tops have a top-10 offense this season led by Houston Baptist transfer Bailey Zappe. In a version of Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid, Zappe is second nationally in passing yards (408.0) and is putting up over 10 yards per attempt.

Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten, and Mel Tucker has the Spartans at 4-0 with three Power Five wins. The offense has been explosive with Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker III leading the country in rushing yards (554) on a 7.29 yards per attempt average.

The weather will be nice at Spartan Stadium, and points will be scored. WKU is explosive enough on offense to keep this one within the big number. The Tops 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road dog and will give Luckett’s Locks another cover on Saturday night.

Best Bet: Ole Miss (+14.5) @ Alabama

In year two under Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss ranks No. 4 nationally in yards per play offense, but that isn’t the story of the Ole Miss Rebels in 2021. D.J. Durkin’s defense has made a huge jump using the middle safety look popularized by Iowa State and currently has a top-40 defense. That makes the Rebels a contender with Matt Corral running the show at quarterback.

Alabama is unblemished with wins away from home against both Miami and Florida, but you have been left wanting more from the Crimson Tide. Redshirt freshman quarterback Bryce Young looks to be the real deal (59.84% passing success rate, 9.2 yards per attempt, 15 touchdowns, 1 interception), but it’s clear that the skill talent has taken a step back in Tuscaloosa.

Ole Miss has the firepower to keep up with Alabama on the road while Alabama doesn’t have quite the explosiveness as usual with some legitimate ground game issues.

Luckett’s Locks will take the two possessions as Kiffin puts a scare into his old boss.

Please bet responsibly.

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