Luckett's Locks: Run it back

The law of averages finally pulled through for Luckett’s Locks in Week 6. It’s about time.

With a 4-2 mark, we recorded our first winning weekend of the season to bump our overall season mark to 15-21-2 against the spread (ATS) on the season. Oklahoma’s miraculous cover felt like a true turning point.

I’m going to tell my grandchildren about the great Kennedy Brooks -3.5 cover 🥳 pic.twitter.com/vupJWW1AhC

— br_betting (@br_betting) October 9, 2021

Meanwhile, Virginia erased a 17-point fourth-quarter lead to upset Louisville, Syracuse took Wake Forest to overtime, and Utah hammered USC. Now it feels like time to go on a run.

Luckett’s Locks is ready to run it back in Week 7. Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

California (+13.5) @ Oregon

Justin Wilcox and Cal are off to a brutal 1-4 start in 2021. The Golden Bears have both an offense and defense that is in the middle of the pack in the Pac-12, but this team is just 1-3 in one-possession games against a really tough schedule. Chase Garbers is a solid quarterback, and Cal had a week off to prepare after a disappointing loss to Washington State.

Oregon is fresh off an ugly road loss to Stanford, but the Ducks had been living on a prayer up to that point. Mario Cristobal’s team is plus-11 in the turnover margin through five games hiding a lot of flaws.

Wilcox is an Oregon alum and always has his team ready to go against the Ducks. Cal is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road dog with a 2-0 mark this season.

Add all those factors up, and Cal is a live dog on Friday night in the Pac-12 after dark window. Take the points with the Golden Bears.

Florida @ LSU Under 59.5

The Gators are off to a 4-2 start with a strong offense and a very good defense. Florida has an electric rushing attack, and Emory Jones has been making some strides throwing the football in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, nothing is going right for LSU. The Tigers lost star wide receiver Kayshon Boutte in the loss to Kentucky, and the defense cannot stop the run. It certainly seems like Ed Orgeron’s time in Baton Rouge has run out.

Due to the loss of Boutte, LSU is going to have to lean into the ground attack much more, and there could be some confidence after Tyrion Davis-Price collected 147 yards on 22 attempts last week. Meanwhile, Florida should run it early and often.

There are winds in the forecast, and the atmosphere will be dead at Tiger Stadium. That all adds up for an under in the sleepy kickoff.

Let’s lock in the under to get the day started on Saturday.

Purdue (+11.5) @ Iowa

Purdue is off to a 3-2 start in year five with Jeff Brohm, but this offense is laboring to score the ball the last three outings despite having one of the better play-by-play offenses in the Big Ten. Meanwhile, Brad Lambert looks like an excellent hire, and he has the Boilermakers playing some inspired football on defense.

Meanwhile, Iowa is off to a 6-0 start, and the Hawkeyes have the best defense in college football outside of Georgia. The offense is just 121st nationally in yards per play, but that hasn’t mattered since Iowa sits at plus-15 in turnover margin.

Since arriving in West Lafayette, Brohm has had a bunch of success against Iowa owning a 4-0 ATS record with a pair of upset wins. Meanwhile, Iowa is fresh off their biggest win of the season in what appears to be a big hangover spot.

Purdue is 7-2 ATS as a road dog under Brohm. It’s only a matter of time before the offense gets figured out and Iowa stops winning the turnover battle by wide margins.

Give us the double-digit dog in the divisional matchup.

NC State @ Boston College (+3)

Dave Doeren’s Wolfpack are 12-5 since the beginning of last season, but there are some chinks in the armor. The offense is 70th nationally in yards per play, and NC State had issues scoring against both Mississippi State and Clemson. Meanwhile, the 3-3-5 stack defense gives opponents issues as the Wolfpack might have the league’s best defense outside of Clemson.

Boston College is a well-rounded team, and Jeff Hafley appears to be an elite coach. The Eagles have a strong offensive line with balance on offense and a defense that is typically in the right spots. The division is wide open, but BC needs a win to stay in the race.

In a matchup of two even teams, give us the home dog at home. Luckett’s Locks gives the Eagles a coaching edge in the matchup, and BC finds a way to get it done at home.

Boston College gets a huge win on Saturday night.

Iowa State @ Kansas State (+6.5)

The Cyclones entered the 2021 season with playoff expectations, but Matt Campbell’s sixth team in Ames is just 3-2 leaving the bye week. However, Iowa State has lost a pair of tough games to both Iowa and Baylor. Iowa State has a top-25 offense and top-five defense in yards per play. That tells Luckett’s Locks that some big wins are coming for the Cyclones.

Chris Klieman is 15-13 through 28 games at Kansas State as the Wildcats are fresh off consecutive losses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The Wildcats have some issues on offense but quarterback Skylar Thompson gives them hope.

The Wildcats are 15-4 ATS as a home underdog with a 2-0 mark this season. After the off week, K-State will be locked in and should have a sour taste in their mouth after a 45-0 loss in Ames last season.

Take the home dog as K-State has a legit shot at a big home victory before Iowa State goes on a run to close the season.

Stanford (-1.5) @ Washington State

The Cardinal is off to a 3-2 start under David Shaw with two huge upset wins over USC and Oregon giving Stanford football a ton of optimism. Tanner McKee has stepped in at quarterback throwing 12 touchdowns but is fresh off his worst performance of the season against Arizona State.

Nick Rolovich is firmly on the hot seat in year two at Washington State, but the Cougars have dug out of an early-season hole to beat California and Oregon State in consecutive weeks. Rolovich needs a bunch of wins in a hurry, but the Cougs have labored on offense.

Through the first half of the season, Stanford has been the better team and this is a small number to lay in a division game. Wazzu is due for a setback after a pair of big wins as Stanford has a better offense, and the defenses are very similar.

The Cardinal get a long week after playing on Friday night and pick up another huge home win in conference play. Lay the small number.

Best Bet: Ole Miss (-2.5) @ Tennessee

Despite the poor showing against Alabama, Ole Miss still has the best offense in the SEC. The Rebels rank No. 5 nationally in yards per play with extreme balance. Ole Miss can really run the football, and Matt Corral is in total control at quarterback. Meanwhile, the defense has been exposed in consecutive SEC games.

Over the last two weeks, Tennessee has been one of the top stories in the SEC after recording consecutive blowout wins against both Missouri and South Carolina. Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker settled things at quarterback, and the Vols have been better than expected in 2021.

Lane Kiffin is returning to Neyland Stadium for the first time as a head coach, and the Vol faithful appears to now be invested in this Tennessee team after a couple of big wins. There won’t be an empty seat on Saturday night, but the Big Orange faithful will be going home unhappy.

The Vols will be without running back Tiyon Evans, and that is a huge loss. The Rebels have more ammo and will be able to set the pace in the shootout. Lay the small number with Ole Miss.

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