Luckett's Locks: Stretch Run

We avoided a losing Saturday in Week 10 at Luckett’s Locks, but we were unable to get over the .500 hump for the second week in a row.

Georgia’s defense made the biggest statement of the year, and Mississippi State blew a double-digit lead to spoil what was otherwise a good week. However, we’ve got three more Saturdays remaining to climb out of this hole.

We’re going back to the board for some big conference games in the stretch run of the season. We are now 26-33-1 against the spread (ATS) after last week’s 3-3 performance, but the picks are not stopping.

Let’s get to the best plays on the card.

Purdue at Illinois (-6.5)

The Illini dropped a tough one at home last week to Michigan State, but things are still going great in Champaign. Illinois has a full-game lead in the Big Ten West and is a win at home against Purdue away from owning all of the tiebreakers in the division. Bret Bielema has gotten his second Illinois team to 7-2 (4-2) at this point thanks to workhorse tailback Chase Brown (1,344 rushing yards), an improved passing game powered by Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito (71.8% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt), and a top-five defense that is dominant against the pass (No. 2 in EPA, No. 3 in success rate).

A few weeks ago in West Lafayette, it looked like Purdue was going to be the team that went on a division title run. Then consecutive double-digit losses to Wisconsin and Iowa happened. The Boilermakers are now 5-4 (3-3) as the season threatens to slip away from Jeff Brohm’s team. The passing game has been somewhat disappointing (No. 72 in success rate, No. 85 in EPA, 6.7 yards per attempt), and the passing defense has struggled in recent weeks allowing over eight yards per attempt to five consecutive foes.

The matchup feels like two teams going in different directions in Week 11. Illinois has a passing game able to take advantage of a porous Purdue secondary and Brohm’s offense should have a very difficult time throwing the ball against a stout Illinois defense. That all adds up to favor the home team in a clear bounce-back spot.

Illinois gets one win away from its first Big Ten title game appearance on Saturday. Lay the points as Bielema gets a big home win.

Virginia Tech at Duke Over 49.5

It’s been a very tough first season for Brent Pry at Virginia Tech as a long rebuild is needed in Blacksburg The Hokies sit at 2-7 (1-5) and will be dogs in every remaining game on top of having a six-game losing streak. The offense has had a very rough season while the defense has been efficient, but some glitchiness has led to a lot of big plays.

Over in Durham, Mike Elko is making a run at ACC Coach of the Year honors in his first season. The Blue Devils are legitimately good on offense highlighted by a rushing offense that ranks No. 4 in EPA, No. 22 in success rate, and has five players averaging at least 4.9 yards per rush. The spread offense is legit under offensive coordinator Kevin Johns, but the defense is very bad against the pass and will give up points.

Duke is the better team in this ACC Coastal matchup, and this offense should produce a fair share of chunk plays on this ground against a leaky Virginia Tech defense. However, the Hokies have scored at least 21 points in three of the last four games and should be able to do that again against Duke.

The Blue Devils get to 30-plus in another win, but the Hokies can score a few touchdowns to push this total into the 50s. Let’s jump on this over.

Maryland (+10) at Penn State

Maryland is having a solid season under head coach Mike Locksley as the Terps have a good shot at getting to eight wins. Taulia Tagovailoa leads a solid offense, and the defense in College Park is playing at a top-50 level. That has led to a 6-3 (3-3) start and a chance to make some noise in November.

Penn State was smashed by Michigan and let the game with Ohio State slip away in the fourth, but James Franklin has a great shot to get the Lions back to 10 wins. New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has put together a top-15 defense in his first season and the offense has taken a positive step forward under offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich ranking No. 27 in points per drive.

When digging into this matchup, Maryland has the all-around offense to score some points on a good Penn State defense. Meanwhile, the Maryland pass defense is very good and can give an iffy Penn State passing attack some problems. There seems to be a good chance that this remains a one-possession game for most of the 60 minutes in State College.

These two teams don’t seem to like each other all that much. Let’s grab the two scores with the road team who played very well at Michigan in a similar spot.

Washington at Oregon (-13)

In his first year, new head coach Kalen DeBoer has made an immediate impact at Washington. The Huskies are 7-2 (4-2), back inside the top 25, and have a top-10 passing attack paced by Indiana transfer Michael Penix Jr. (8.3 yards per attempt, 23 touchdowns, 359.1 yards on 43.4 throws per game). Unfortunately, the defense has been very bad in Seattle, and that is the main reason the Dawgs aren’t true Pac-12 contenders.

Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham should be the favorite to win the Broyles Award at this point. The 32-year-old play-caller has a clear top-five offense in college football in Eugene as the Ducks are scoring 43.1 points per game with elite run and pass balance. Auburn transfer Bo Nix is a legit Heisman Trophy contender with 35 total touchdowns highlighted by a 55.7 percent passing success rate and 458 non-sack rushing yards.

Unfortunately, this is likely not a team that can win a national title due to a defense that ranks No. 110 in EPA and No. 117 in success rate.

It will be chilly in Eugene, but that will not stop these top-20 offenses from scoring a boatload of points. Washington’s passing game will have a ton of success against a bad Oregon passing defense, but the overall balance gives the Ducks an edge at home. Oregon is 4-0 ATS at home and has covered the spread by an average of 13.6 points per game.

The spread has been bumped up to adjust, but it’s still not enough points. Oregon pulls away late in a very fun college football game to cover the number and increase their College Football Playoff resume.

The Ducks get a big double-digit win in a rivalry game.

North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5)

North Carolina is just one win away from returning to the ACC Championship for the first time since 2015. The Heels have gotten this far despite playing some pretty awful defense. That is because redshirt freshman Drake Maye is a legit Heisman Trophy candidate and might be the best quarterback in college football. With Maye leading the attack, the Heels are scoring 40.6 points per game and rank inside the top 10 in passing EPA and passing success rate.

Wake Forest entered the season with ACC title aspirations, but consecutive losses to Louisville and NC State have made a losing conference record a possibility. The passing game is again a strength with Sam Hartman behind center, but the ground game has been anemic. The defense still has some issues ranking No. 82 in points per drive.

Touchdowns will be scored in bunches in Winston-Salem after last year’s meeting between these two teams had a combined 113 points on the scoreboard. We could see something similar on Saturday and for the second year in a row, the unranked team will leave the field a winner.

Wake Forest is the favorite for a reason here as the ACC Coastal has the Heels with an inflated record. Lay the points with the Demon Deacons at home.

Best Bet: Kansas State at Baylor Over 52.5

Kansas State (6-3, 4-2) took a tough home loss to Texas last week, but Chris Klieman’s team is not out of the Big 12 race. The Wildcats have a top-35 offense and defense as this team can threaten anyone when K-State is on. Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez returned to the lineup last week, and this rushing attack is much more dangerous with him in the lineup.

Baylor (6-3, 4-2) is the defending Big 12 champion, and the Bears are not out of the hunt yet. Dave Aranda’s third team in Waco has a top-25 offense with great balance and not many weaknesses. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has seen his unit score at least 35 points in four consecutive games. However, the defense has taken a step back ranking No. 73 in points per drive.

In what should be a close game at McLane Stadium, the winner should get to 30 points. Both offenses are playing good football and this is a game with big stakes in the Big 12. Add in the short total, and this gives us an easy over play.

Expect some offensive fireworks in what could be one of the best games of Week 11. Jump on the short total.