Luckett's Locks: Survival Mode

Well, Week 8 was another losing week for Luckett’s Locks. We are barely treading water in 2021.

After a 2-5 mark, our season tally has dropped to 21-30-2 against the spread (ATS) as things are just not going well for the column. However, there are a lot of games left, and football weather is rolling in.

It’s time to find some winners. Halloween weekend needs to work its magic on Saturday.

Indiana @ Maryland (-5.5)

After entering the season in the top 25, things have gone poorly for the Hoosiers. Indiana lost their quarterback, has the worst offense in the Big Ten, and a schedule loaded with top-flight completion. IU is fresh off a total beatdown at home against Ohio State and must bounce back on the road.

Maryland was another team that had some high expectations thanks to a talented quarterback. Alabama transfer Taulia Tagovailoa has been good this season, but other parts of the team have let the Terps down. The defense has been shredded in recent weeks as Maryland dropped three straight against Iowa, Ohio State, and Minnesota.

It’s a huge game for both sides, but the Terps have more to play for. Maryland can still reach bowl eligibility, and their defense will get a chance to get healthy against the worst offense in the conference. Tagovailoa plays well, and Mike Locksley gets a big win.

Lay the points with the home favorite.

Texas @ Baylor (-2.5)

It’s been a roller coaster for Steve Sarkisian at Texas. The Longhorns are averaging over 40 points per game, but the team is fresh off of two second-half meltdowns against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. The defense is allowing over six yards per play, and it’s clear that Texas is not back.

Over in Waco, Dave Aranda is making a strong push for national coach of the year. The former defensive coordinator at Wisconsin and LSU made a great hire bringing in Jeff Grimes to run the wide zone offense, and now the Bears lead the Big 12 in yards per play. Meanwhile, the defense is better than average. Baylor is a legit contender in the Big 12.

Baylor has been the better team to this point in the season, and the Bears are laying less than a field goal at home. It’s as simple as that.

Fade Texas and lay the small number with the home favorite.

Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida

The Bulldogs are the best team in college football, and it appears that JT Daniels could be returning to the lineup on Saturday. Georgia is an efficiency machine on offense and has the best defense we’ve seen in years.

Florida is sitting at 4-3, and pressure is starting to heat up on Dan Mullen, but the Gators are better than the win/loss results. The offense is fifth nationally in yards per play, and the defense has had a good season outside of an odd performance against LSU.

Florida is still a legitimate top 20 team, but this is another statement spot for Georgia. After last year’s tough loss, the Bulldogs will be highly motivated, and Kirby Smart has been great at covering big spreads in this rivalry.

Lay the points as Georgia gets another impressive win.

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma Over 67

After a tough home loss to Kansas State, the Red Raiders decided to make a move at head coach. Texas Tech fired Matt Wells in the middle of year three with a 5-3 record. The defense is a major reason why as Texas Tech ranks 89th in yards per play allowed. Meanwhile, the offense has done some good things under new offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie.

Oklahoma is still undefeated but survived a scare against Kansas last week. Caleb Williams again saved the day and continues to play at a remarkable level for the Sooners. Williams creates big plays and is a big part of this offense being third nationally in success rate and seventh in yards per play.

Oklahoma dropped fiftyburgers against Texas and TCU with Caleb Williams running the show before the Kansas hangover. Meanwhile, Texas Tech has scored 30-plus in five games this year and has a legit top-30 offense with balance.

On the other side, we appear to have two of the worst defenses in the Big 12 on the field. Points will be scored in bunches. Take the over.

Purdue (+7.5) @ Nebraska

After a huge win over Iowa, the Boilermakers dropped an egg at home as their pass-heavy offense just could not get rolling against Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the defense continues to have an excellent season as the Boilermakers now rank sixth in defensive success rate.

Nebraska has lost 4 out of 5 and got a much-needed bye week following a disappointing performance against Minnesota. Things are not coming together for Scott Frost despite the Huskers getting solid play from both the offense and defense this season.

In this game, Purdue’s defense is the best unit and the Boilermakers should make Nebraska earn scores. Meanwhile, Purdue’s passing game should have success against a Husker secondary with some holes in it.

Getting more than one possession was just too good to pass up. Purdue is 8-2 ATS as a road dog under Jeff Brohm and gets another cover on Saturday afternoon.

Boise State @ Colorado State (+2.5)

It has not been a great debut year for new head coach Andy Avalos at Boise State. The Broncos are 3-4 and have taken a step back on defense. Meanwhile, the offense has a ton of issues and cannot run the football.

After an ugly start, Steve Addazio has things pointing in the right direction at Colorado State. The Rams have a legit top-20 defense, and tight end Trey McBride is having an All-American caliber season.

The better team is at home and is catching points in this matchup. Colorado State has the supreme defense, and their offense should be able to do just enough damage on this bad Boise State defense.

The Rams will win straight up. Take the points.

North Carolina (+3.5) @ Notre Dame

It’s been a rough year three for Mack Brown. North Carolina entered this season with playoff aspirations and a potential Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. That has not developed this season. The Tar Heels have taken a step back on both sides of the ball, but this is still an offense that can score some points.

Notre Dame is quietly sitting at No. 11 in the top 25 and 6-1 under Brian Kelly. The Irish are having a good season, but it hasn’t been due to offense. There are quarterback issues in South Bend, but this team cannot run the football. The inefficiency has led to three one-possession games.

The Heels are fresh off a bye week, and Notre Dame seems to be playing everyone close this year. North Carolina has the talent to win a game like this, and Sam Howell’s offense will keep them within striking distance as the Notre Dame offense labors.

Take the field goal and a hook.

Best Bet: Ole Miss @ Auburn (-2.5)

After a huge home win over LSU, Ole Miss is at 6-1 and in the top-10. The Rebels have a great shot at finishing 11-1 thanks to a top-notch offense that ranks 19th in success rate and 15th in yards per play. Matt Corral might be the best quarterback in college football, and the offense does just enough to hide another bad defense.

Auburn is fresh off a bye and followed a blowout loss to Georgia by going on the road and beating Arkansas by double-digits. Head coach Bryan Harsin and offensive coordinator Mike Bobo have done a tremendous job developing junior quarterback Bo Nix and it has led to improved offensive numbers on the Plains even with the ground game going through some struggles. However, the defense has had issues under new coordinator Derek Mason.

Ole Miss is bad on defense, and Auburn is good on offense. The Tigers will be able to score some points. On the other side, Auburn isn’t great but the Tigers stop the run. That is huge for this week because the Rebels are banged up at wide receiver and have morphed into a run heavier attack in 2021. That means more good things for the home team at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Harsin’s squad matches up well with Ole Miss and gets them in a great spot. Auburn is off the bye, and the Rebels are fresh off four consecutive emotional games with plenty of highs and lows.

Lay the small number with the home favorite as Auburn rolls to a big victory.