Luckett's Locks: Grind Mode

Our good run ended last week as we weren’t seeing the ball well in Week 5 at Luckett’s Locks. Oklahoma got blistered by TCU to start the day, Iowa State missed a bunch of field goals, and Virginia was throttled on the road.

We were able to log a couple of covers late to go 2-4 against the spread (ATS) on the week as our overall record dropped to 13-16-1 ATS on the year. It’s time to go back to the drawing board.

Luckett’s Locks is back with six more plays this week as we look to get over the hump. Let’s get to the window.

Michigan (-22.5) at Indiana

Quietly, Michigan has looked like one of the best teams in college football this season. The Wolverines are off to a 5-0 start in year eight under Jim Harbaugh while ranking in the top 20 of offensive EPA, defensive EPA, offensive success rate, and defensive success rate. J.J. McCarthy has looked good at quarterback (10.1 yards per attempt), Blake Corum is competing for All-American honors at tailback (611 yards, 10 touchdowns), and the defense has been excellent.

After winning a bunch of close games to get to 3-0 to start the reason, Indiana has regressed to the mean over the last two weeks. After being drilled by Cincinnati, the Hoosiers let a winnable game slip away against Nebraska. Indiana is putting up some bad numbers on both offense and defense as new offensive coordinator Walt Bell’s tempo attack is just not providing enough splash plays.

In this contest, Michigan has every advantage possible and that should lead to a long day for the home team in Bloomington. The Wolverines should run the ball at will and hit a few explosive passes while Indiana will have a very hard time putting together scoring drives against the Wolverines. Harbaugh is no stranger to big numbers and covers more than he doesn’t in these spots.

Lay the points with Michigan before a huge home tilt with Penn State next weekend.

Eastern Michigan (+5) at Western Michigan

Chris Creighton is in year nine at Eastern Michigan, and this program keeps making some noise under his guidance. The Eagles got a huge win in Week 3 knocking off Arizona State on the road only to return home and drop the MAC opener to Buffalo. EMU has a strong rushing attack, but Creighton has had to shuffle through quarterbacks while the defense has struggled.

Over in Kalamazoo, head coach Tim Lester is in year six at Western Michigan, and this very much feels like a rebuilding campaign. The Broncos have some issues at quarterback and are having a hard time establishing the run despite having two proven tailbacks. The defense has been a bright spot, but overall, WMU has a long way to go.

In the battle for the Michigan MAC Trophy, things could get heated at Waldo Stadium. The running attack of EMU is the biggest strength in this game, and Creighton has consistently been one of the top road underdogs in college football logging a 21-6 ATS mark since 2016.

The Eagles have value in this rivalry spot and won this game outright as a five-point dog last season. Take the points.

BYU vs. Notre Dame Over 51

BYU is off to a strong start in 2022 under Kalani Sitake entering Week 6 at 4-1 with a team that is being driven by the offense. Jaren Hall (8.4 yards per attempt, 12 touchdowns, 1 interception) is leading the way for a rock-solid passing game. However, getting the run game going has been an issue, and the defense has been leaky against the run.

Notre Dame enters Saturday at 2-2 following a bye week after a huge road win against North Carolina. The Irish still have some offensive issues, but things looked much better in Chapel Hill. On the other side, the run defense is struggling for the Irish, and the pass defense could use some work.

Marcus Freeman’s first Notre Dame team still has some holes, and BYU’s passing game should challenge the Irish. However, Notre Dame should have some success both on the ground and through the air in Las Vegas for this neutral-site game.

We’re jumping on the over for this matchup as both teams should be able to have some offensive success with the winner getting to the low 30s.

Army (+16.5) at Wake Forest

Army West Point is off to a slow start in year nine under Jeff Monken as the Black Knights sit at 1-3 with close losses to UTSA and Coastal Carolina. However, it’s not because of offense. The option attack is scoring 32.3 points per game on 6.6 yards per play and enters Saturday at No. 17 overall in offensive EPA.

In Winston-Salem, the Demon Deacons are fresh off an impressive road win against Florida State just one week after letting one slip away against Clemson. Once again, the offense is leading the way with a dynamite passing game powered by Sam Hartman, but new defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has made some real strides with his new unit.

These two teams met last year and the game ended in a 70-56 shootout win for the Deacs. Army will have a hard time generating stops, but their ball-control offense will allow the Knights to hang around with a three-possession number.

Take the points as possessions will be limited by Army’s run-heavy offense.

Oregon (-13) at Arizona

First-year head coach Dan Lanning got things turned around quickly at Oregon. Following the embarrassing Week 1 loss to Georgia, the Ducks have won four in a row with solid victories over BYU and Washington State. The offense has scored over 40 points in each game since that stunning loss, but the defense is having some issues giving up over 30 points per game.

Jedd Fisch is still trying to rebuild at Arizona, and this Pac-12 South program has made some real strides in year two. The offense is legitimately good with Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback as the Wildcats are all-around efficient and are getting some explosive plays in the passing game. Unfortunately, the defense needs a lot of work ranking No. 110 in EPA, No. 118 in yards per play, and No. 127 in success rate.

The home underdog will have some success on offense, but Oregon should score and keep scoring against a bad Arizona defense. Expect Fisch’s team to hang around early, but Lanning’s squad will pull away late with another balanced offensive performance. Oregon offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham is a name to know as jobs begin to open around the country.

Best Bet: Florida State at NC State (-3)

The Seminoles certainly look improved in year four under Mike Norvell as transfers are leading the way on offense and defense. Florida State already has two wins away from home as the offense has a strong passing game averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and ranking inside the top 10 nationally in 20-plus yard completions. Unfortunately, the defense has some issues ranking No. 105 in success rate. If the Seminoles can’t force turnovers or get stops in the red zone, points can be scored.

Dave Doeren’s 10th team at NC State had very high expectations as many thought this could be the squad to finally bring home a conference title. That will be hard to do following last week’s loss to Clemson. The Wolfpack are outstanding on defense while the offense has come around in recent weeks.

Both teams enter this game bouncing back off tough losses. Entering the matchup, this feels like a good get-right spot for Devin Leary and the NC State offense as the Florida State defense has some holes. On the other side, NC State might have the best defense FSU has seen and should give this offense some problems.

I trust an experienced NC State team more in this spot as the Wolfpack still has a shot at a great season if things don’t unravel on Saturday night at home. Let’s ride with NC State and lay the field goal as the Wolfpack get a huge win to give themselves a shot at a double-digit win campaign.