Luckett's Locks: October Nooners

We were eight points away from a 5-1 against the spread (ATS) record in Week 6. The spreads are starting to get good.

It was another losing weekend for us here as Michigan and NC State could not get to the cover, and the over came up just short in BYU-Notre Dame. It’s back to the drawing board as we’ve reached the halfway point of the college football season.

After the 2-4 ATS mark, Luckett’s Locks now stands at 15-20-1 ATS but is looking to bounce back. We’re going big in the noon slate. Let’s get to the window.

Minnesota (-6.5) at Illinois

After suffering a tough home loss to Purdue after a great start to the season, Minnesota got a week off before a seven-game conference stretch to end the season. P.J. Fleck’s squad appears to be the best team in the Big Ten West as the Gophers have an elite run game (10th rush EPA, 6th rush success rate) paced by All-American tailback candidate Mohamed Ibrahim (567 yards, 8 touchdowns, 6.4 yards per rush). Meanwhile, Tanner Morgan is one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten, and Minnesota’s defense is playing at a top-five level under defensive coordinator Joe Rossi.

Bret Bielema’s second Illinois team has been one of the biggest surprises of the season as the Illini is off to a 5-1 start with consecutive wins over Iowa and Wisconsin. Tailback Chase Brown is playing at a very high level (879 yards, 4 touchdowns, 5.8 yards per rush, 47% success rate on 25.2 attempts per game), and the defense has been lights out under defensive coordinator Ryan Walters. However, the passing game has been an issue, and Illinois could be without starting quarterback Tommy DeVito on Saturday.

Illinois has been a feel-good story, but the Gophers have the better quarterback in this matchup, and that will go a long way. Expect a slugfest at Memorial Stadium, but the road team has more ammo and has been very good off a bye under Fleck with a 7-2 outright record. The unranked team is the favorite over a ranked team on the road for a reason.

Lay the near touchdown with Minnesota on the road as this one could get out of hand without DeVito in the lineup.

Auburn at Ole Miss (-14.5)

Yeah, things are not going well for Auburn. Bryan Harsin’s team enters Saturday with a 3-3 mark as the Tigers played competitive football against LSU and Georgia the last two weeks but were still unable to leave with a victory. The Tigers might have the worst offense in the SEC ranking No. 109 in offensive EPA as there has been some bad QB play on the Plains, and the defense has struggled to stop the run.

Fresh off a 10-2 season that ended in the Sugar Bowl, Lane Kiffin again has Ole Miss cooking with gas. The Rebels have a dynamite rushing attack as both Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins are on pace for 1,000-yard seasons and sophomore QB Jaxson Dart is improving in each outing. On defense, the Rebels are willing to give up yards in exchange for big-play prevention in their dime base. Teams have struggled to finish drives against defensive coordinator Chris Partridge’s unit.

Ole Miss owns one of the best rushing attacks in college football, and Auburn has run defense issues. Auburn also has issues on offense, but the biggest could be the inability to finish drives. Those are two huge factors that heavily favor the home team.

It’s a big number in an SEC game, but it feels like the wheels are going to fall off the track at any moment for Harsin. Add in the tempo that Ole Miss plays with, and things could get ugly at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

Lay the two touchdowns and a hook with top-10 Ole Miss.

Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina (-11)

Former Penn State offensive Ricky Rahne has Old Dominion playing competitive football as a new Sun Belt member, but it’s not because of offensive production. The Monarchs are No. 113 in offensive EPA and are dead last in success rate. The defense is playing at a top-50 level, but the offense is ugly.

Jamey Chadwell has Coastal Carolina off to a 6-0 start, and all eyes are on a potential undefeated matchup with James Madison at the end of the season. The offense is again a strength with quarterback Grayson McCall giving the Chants one of the top passing offenses in college football. The defense is not great but is solid across the board.

To put it simply, Coastal is going to score points having scored at least 28 in every game this season. ODU has scored 21 points or fewer in three games this year. In this new conference matchup, the road team should have a difficult time with an efficient and explosive passing attack.

Lay the two possessions with Coastal Carolina.

Miami (-7) at Virginia Tech

Folks may not believe this, but Miami is doing some good things on offense. The Hurricanes could not get the ball in the endzone against Texas A&M, but Tyler Van Dyke nearly threw for 500 yards last week, and the rushing game ranks No. 4 overall in success rate. The offense is just struggling to finish drives. The team’s biggest issue is the passing defense where foes are averaging over 10 yards per attempt.

Virginia Tech has the opposite issue. The Hokies have a woeful running game (No. 121 rush EPA, No. 124 rush success rate) but a very good pass defense (No. 35 pass defense EPA, No. 8 pass defense success rate). However, the run defense has not been great, and the passing game has been frustrating.

The U has lost three straight, but that ends on Saturday. It’s a get-right spot for the Canes at Lane Stadium as Miami will be able to establish the run, and Virginia Tech does not have the personnel or scheme to take advantage of a bad pass defense.

Miami cruises to a double-digit victory. Lay the touchdown.

Memphis at East Carolina Under 58

Memphis suffered an all-time brutal loss at home last Friday night after a furious fourth-quarter rally from Houston. However, Ryan Silverfield’s squad is doing some good things this season. Most of that is due to a strong rush defense and an opportunistic offense that is finishing scoring opportunities with points.

At East Carolina, the Pirates over off to a 1-2 start in conference play thanks in part to a feast or famine rushing attack. The defense has been outstanding against the run but the offense has issues when big plays are not created by tailback Keaton Mitchell on the ground.

What does ECU do best? Create explosive runs. What does Memphis do best? Slow down the run. It’s a strength-on-strength matchup with neither passing game consistently able to carry an offense through four quarters. That should lead to some stops early and often.

There will be points scored at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, but it could be hard for the winner to get into the 30s. We’ve got an under coming in Greenville.

Best Bet: Clemson at Florida State Over 51

Clemson is off to a 6-0 start with three division wins. The Tigers are on their way to another ACC title game appearance. The offense has fixed some issues with new play-caller Brandon Streeter as this unit has no weakness with both the passing attack and rushing attack ranking top-50 in EPA. The Tigers have been boom or bust but have been elite at finishing drives and again have a good defense that is dynamite against the run but leaky against the pass.

After a strong start to the year, Mike Norvell’s team has lost consecutive games to Wake Forest and NC State. Things could unravel quickly if wins do not arrive soon. Florida State is being powered by a very good passing game as Jordan Travis is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt. The run game has also been solid, but red zone ineffectiveness is holding the offense back. On the other side, FSU is very much bend but don’t break ranking No. 92 in success rate but is only allowing 20.8 points per game.

Florida State’s passing game appears to have an advantage against the Clemson secondary and that should lead to some success for the home team in a big spot. Clemson should move the ball consistently, but the game could be determined in the red zone where the Tigers’ offense (No. 18) has an advantage over the Seminoles’ defense (No. 67) in red zone touchdown rate.

Clemson overs have treated us well this season, and we’re going back to the well in Week 7. Both offenses do some things well that the opposing defense will have difficulty stopping. Florida State needs to play well after tough losses. I’m expecting some points as a track meet could break out if Travis gets hot.

Let’s ride the over train at Doak.